Russia invades Ukraine *** READ RULES IN POST 6 BEFORE POSTING ***

[CalPolyTechnique]

The EU is desperately trying to get America (American Taxpayers) to underwrite:

1. The rebuild of Ukraine
2. A US guarantee of the security of Ukraine after the Peace deal is done with Russia.

JUST NO to #1 and # 2. The Ukraine is of NO Vital importance to the United States.

Let the EU/UK do that if it cares to.

 

[nobody]

There's one key problem with that comparison. Europe is a group of nations, not just one nation. The US is one nation. It's spin to look like the US isn't contributing all that much. It's given more than any other single country and it isn't even close.
Number 1: US 114.6 billion
Number 2: Germany 21.2 billion
Number 3: U.K. 18.6 billion


So for the EU to sit there and ask the US to fund reconstruction is laughable.

 

[Montanalo]

There's one key problem with that comparison. Europe is a group of nations, not just one nation. The US is one nation. It's spin to look like the US isn't contributing all that much. It's given more than any other single country and it isn't even close.
Number 1: US 114.6 billion
Number 2: Germany 21.2 billion
Number 3: U.K. 18.6 billion


So for the EU to sit there and ask the US to fund reconstruction is laughable.

Companies like Blackrock will stand i. Line to be part of the rebuild and the accompanying money train.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

There's one key problem with that comparison. Europe is a group of nations, not just one nation. The US is one nation. It's spin to look like the US isn't contributing all that much. It's given more than any other single country and it isn't even close.
Number 1: US 114.6 billion
Number 2: Germany 21.2 billion
Number 3: U.K. 18.6 billion


So for the EU to sit there and ask the US to fund reconstruction is laughable.

That’s understood (re: EU being multination). It’s not spin; it’s proportionality.

What’s being missed is the fact the GDP of U.S. is exponentially greater than than any of the EU countries. To act like Germany or the UK need to match what the U.S. provides is misguided.

 

[HungryLion]

There's one key problem with that comparison. Europe is a group of nations, not just one nation. The US is one nation. It's spin to look like the US isn't contributing all that much. It's given more than any other single country and it isn't even close.
Number 1: US 114.6 billion
Number 2: Germany 21.2 billion
Number 3: U.K. 18.6 billion


So for the EU to sit there and ask the US to fund reconstruction is laughable.

Russia should be footing the bill for reconstruction given theyre the ones responsible for the destruction. Fat chance of that happening in any agreement that is made.

 

[nobody]

That’s understood (re: EU being multination). It’s not spin; it’s proportionality.

What’s being missed is the fact the GDP of U.S. is exponentially greater than than any of the EU countries. To act like Germany or the UK need to match what the U.S. provides is misguided.

How is that our responsibility? We have so many things we need to fix here that would take that money. We should be fixing things at home before the rest of the world. I'm sick of them ignoring our own issues for "diplomacy"

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

How is that our responsibility? We have so many things we need to fix here that would take that money. We should be fixing things at home before the rest of the world. I'm sick of them ignoring our own issues for "diplomacy"

It’s a shared responsibility because allowing Russia to effectively annex ~230,000+ sq. miles of land/territory immediately adjacent to our NATO allies is not only strategically bad in terms of resources (grains, minerals, etc.) for those countries and our own interests militarily.

 

[Sarek]

Looks like all parties involved US EU UK Ukraine Russia are hoping this might end soon.

Russia wants land, they’ll probably get some.

I think it’s all going to come down to post war Ukrainian security.

If there’s a deal how will Putin be able to accept those security guarantees?

Putin is chipping away land with each round, first Crimea now eastern parts of Ukraine. If Ukraine demands security guarantees via NATO that will be the end of Putin’s advancing.

If Ukraine can’t get security guarantees what’s the point of ending this war when it will simply restart in 4 years from now.

These negotiations could fall apart because Putin has no intention of stopping long term.

Let’s see what happens at tomorrow’s meeting inside the White House Zelensky Starmer Macron Von Der.

 

[Montanalo]

Good summary. I do think a sticking point will be rebuilding Ukraine... Zelensky will demand reparations from Russia

 

[Reality]

Looks like all parties involved US EU UK Ukraine Russia are hoping this might end soon.

Russia wants land, they’ll probably get some.

I think it’s all going to come down to post war Ukrainian security.

If there’s a deal how will Putin be able to accept those security guarantees?

Putin is chipping away land with each round, first Crimea now eastern parts of Ukraine. If Ukraine demands security guarantees via NATO that will be the end of Putin’s advancing.

If Ukraine can’t get security guarantees what’s the point of ending this war when it will simply restart in 4 years from now.

These negotiations could fall apart because Putin has no intention of stopping long term.

Let’s see what happens at tomorrow’s meeting inside the White House Zelensky Starmer Macron Von Der.

I think Putin has been ready for the war to end for a while because he knows that's the only play.

Putin likely had plans to take Ukraine quickly, then move on to other former USSR countries soon after.

With both the US and Europe stepping up to arm Ukraine with modern defensive and offensive weapons as aggressively and consistently as they did, it likely caught Putin by surprise.

That has caused the war to drag on for years which has depleted Russia's military personnel and weaponry, which makes them weaker on the global stage as well.

That combined with Finland and Sweden joining NATO so quickly, Putin knows that if he tried to invade any other countries, Europe and the US would likely support them as well as they have Ukraine and some might join NATO as well.

I think if Putin was younger, he would continue the war hoping Europe or the US eventually reduce or end their support for Ukraine, but he is much older now and his time is running out due to age and likely pressure from within Russia.

The smart play now for Russia is to grab as much Ukraine territory as possible while working out a deal for a steady reduction in global sanctions so that Russia can start rebuilding their economy and their military.

My guess is that Putin will agree to mutually beneficial agreements that provide an ostentatious public appearance of compensation and/or reparations while actually doing little to help Ukraine recover directly.

The US and Europe want the war to end because its costing them money of course, but the rebuilding process will lead to a lot of investment opportunities.

The minerals deal for example will help the US reduce its dependency on China while also hurting China as the US starts exporting those minerals to other countries.

Removing the sanctions on Russia will open up their energy market (which is a significant part of their GDP) to the world, which will increase supply and drive down energy prices, which would help reduce global inflation most countries are experiencing.

Putin likely wants an out, but one that he can use to justify all of the soldiers Russia lost and the suffering of the Russia economy and people since the war started.

Ukraine knows support from Europe and the US is going to wane over time, so they know they need to puff out their chest publicly while privately trying to keep as much territory as possible and getting the best post-war investment deals worked out before the war ends.

In other words, Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the US all want the war to end.

It's now more about everybody grabbing for as much as they can before it happens.

 

[Tabascocat]

If a deal is reached, the US should put a couple of military bases in Ukraine. That might be some assurance for Zelensky to help steer away any further advances from Russia.

 

[Sarek]

I think Putin has been ready for the war to end for a while because he knows that's the only play.

Putin likely had plans to take Ukraine quickly, then move on to other former USSR countries soon after.

With both the US and Europe stepping up to arm Ukraine with modern defensive and offensive weapons as aggressively and consistently as they did, it likely caught Putin by surprise.

That has caused the war to drag on for years which has depleted Russia's military personnel and weaponry, which makes them weaker on the global stage as well.

That combined with Finland and Sweden joining NATO so quickly, Putin knows that if he tried to invade any other countries, Europe and the US would likely support them as well as they have Ukraine and some might join NATO as well.

I think if Putin was younger, he would continue the war hoping Europe or the US eventually reduce or end their support for Ukraine, but he is much older now and his time is running out due to age and likely pressure from within Russia.

The smart play now for Russia is to grab as much Ukraine territory as possible while working out a deal for a steady reduction in global sanctions so that Russia can start rebuilding their economy and their military.

My guess is that Putin will agree to mutually beneficial agreements that provide an ostentatious public appearance of compensation and/or reparations while actually doing little to help Ukraine recover directly.

The US and Europe want the war to end because its costing them money of course, but the rebuilding process will lead to a lot of investment opportunities.

The minerals deal for example will help the US reduce its dependency on China while also hurting China as the US starts exporting those minerals to other countries.

Removing the sanctions on Russia will open up their energy market (which is a significant part of their GDP) to the world, which will increase supply and drive down energy prices, which would help reduce global inflation most countries are experiencing.

Putin likely wants an out, but one that he can use to justify all of the soldiers Russia lost and the suffering of the Russia economy and people since the war started.

Ukraine knows support from Europe and the US is going to wane over time, so they know they need to puff out their chest publicly while privately trying to keep as much territory as possible and getting the best post-war investment deals worked out before the war ends.

In other words, Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the US all want the war to end.

It's now more about everybody grabbing for as much as they can before it happens.

I wonder if a deal is a good thing at this stage. I wonder how long Russia can continue this war if there’s no deal. Over these three years or so people have been saying Russia’s economy is decreasing, I’m not sure if Russia’s economy is getting worse and if so how bad is it.

I would rather make a deal when Putin is very desperate and if he’s desperate now then the west should give up less and ask for more in return.

I’m guessing that Ukraine wants a good deal now and try to get some land back and or money later after Putin is gone from the picture, but I think that’s going to take awhile to happen if ever depending on what direction Russia takes after Putin.

If this ends now and Ukraine loses land without NATO membership or Taiwan type of protection then Russia wins this round and is coming back for another soon enough.

It’s never easy to keep fighting but that might be best for Ukraine if they can continue.

 

[Montanalo]

I wonder if a deal is a good thing at this stage. I wonder how long Russia can continue this war if there’s no deal. Over these three years or so people have been saying Russia’s economy is decreasing, I’m not sure if Russia’s economy is getting worse and if so how bad is it.

I would rather make a deal when Putin is very desperate and if he’s desperate now then the west should give up less and ask for more in return.

I’m guessing that Ukraine wants a good deal now and try to get some land back and or money later after Putin is gone from the picture, but I think that’s going to take awhile to happen if ever depending on what direction Russia takes after Putin.

If this ends now and Ukraine loses land without NATO membership or Taiwan type of protection then Russia wins this round and is coming back for another soon enough.

It’s never easy to keep fighting but that might be best for Ukraine if they can continue.

With regard to the Russian economy, no doubt the oligarchs and large corporations are experiencing a financial squeeze. The everyday Russians - not so much. We have relatives living in Volgograd. While many western-backed companies have closed down, most have been replaced by local businesses. They are seeing more imported goods from China and India, but are facing no real day-to-day hardships.

I think most Russians are growing tired of the war, but don't simply want a ceach a cease fire. Our family and friends have a deep-seated mistrust of NATO and are worried about continued expansion... realistically, they have very similar concerns as Europeans do about Rusian expansion westward.

In previous posts, I have shared my experience living and working in the FSU. There is no easy solution to the current situation and, sadly, most of Europe seems quite content to use Ukraine to simply grind down Russia. This isn't about protecting democracy; it's all about money and power.

 

[Sarek]

With regard to the Russian economy, no doubt the oligarchs and large corporations are experiencing a financial squeeze. The everyday Russians - not so much. We have relatives living in Volgograd. While many western-backed companies have closed down, most have been replaced by local businesses. They are seeing more imported goods from China and India, but are facing no real day-to-day hardships.

I think most Russians are growing tired of the war, but don't simply want a ceach a cease fire. Our family and friends have a deep-seated mistrust of NATO and are worried about continued expansion... realistically, they have very similar concerns as Europeans do about Rusian expansion westward.

In previous posts, I have shared my experience living and working in the FSU. There is no easy solution to the current situation and, sadly, most of Europe seems quite content to use Ukraine to simply grind down Russia. This isn't about protecting democracy; it's all about money and power.

I don’t see Europe or anyone taking Russia by force. On the other hand Russia has made quite a few statements about using nukes against Europe. I know those statements are more about fear then actual nuclear war. None the less those kind of statements didn’t help ease the situation.

Russian people can say they fear NATO or EU expansion but what they’re really saying is they want democracy but just don’t know how to obtain it without losing their roots or going to jail in the process.

Russian people were hoping for Democracy after the wall but those with power didn’t want it for many reasons but the biggest one is how do those few people keep power in a true democracy and since they haven’t figured it out they reverted back to what they know.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

That’s understood (re: EU being multination). It’s not spin; it’s proportionality.

What’s being missed is the fact the GDP of U.S. is exponentially greater than than any of the EU countries. To act like Germany or the UK need to match what the U.S. provides is misguided.

No response to this. I’ll interpret that to mean folks were properly educated and have nothing to say.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

The EU is desperately trying to get America (American Taxpayers) to underwrite:

1. The rebuild of Ukraine
2. A US guarantee of the security of Ukraine after the Peace deal is done with Russia.

JUST NO to #1 and # 2. The Ukraine is of NO Vital importance to the United States.

Let the EU/UK do that if it cares to.

You do realize that the United States is treaty bound to defend the sovereignty of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Finland, correct?

A successful Russian conquest of Ukraine exponentially increases the odds that American soldiers will have to die in trenches in Eastern Europe in the near future. Putin will not be able to help himself but go for another land grab in the Baltics if America is weak enough to stand by and do nothing today. Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya, and Moldova have all already paid the price in the last 25 years alone. Ask them if they think Russia isn't interested in more wars.

It is without a doubt in the best interest of the United States to ensure that Russia be completely and utterly deterred from reinvading Ukraine after some sort of settlement is reached. We either pay a dollar today or bear a potentially unbelievable cost in the future. The United States built the post WWII order and became unimaginably wealthy as a result, so it is our job and in our best interest to ensure its stability in the future.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

I don’t see Europe or anyone taking Russia by force. On the other hand Russia has made quite a few statements about using nukes against Europe. I know those statements are more about fear then actual nuclear war. None the less those kind of statements didn’t help ease the situation.

Russian people can say they fear NATO or EU expansion but what they’re really saying is they want democracy but just don’t know how to obtain it without losing their roots or going to jail in the process.

Russian people were hoping for Democracy after the wall but those with power didn’t want it for many reasons but the biggest one is how do those few people keep power in a true democracy and since they haven’t figured it out they reverted back to what they know.

NATO "Expansion" is a myth invented by the Russians. NATO does not expand, it is a voluntary alignment that nations request to join. NATO doesn't go and conquer territory to force nations in and expand some imperial border and threaten Russia.

I think this alone speaks volumes: countries flock to NATO in order to ensure a prosperous future. For Russia to get anyone to join their orbit, they have to invade and force them in at gunpoint, because nobody wants to align with them voluntarily.

Countries like Finland, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechia, Slovakia, and Romania join NATO explicitly because they are rightly afraid of what Russia might do to them if they didn't have protection under the umbrella. Ukraine is the latest cautionary tale of what happens if you neighbor Russia and aren't armed to the teeth. They will violate your borders and kill your people.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

NATO "Expansion" is a myth invented by the Russians. NATO does not expand, it is a voluntary alignment that nations request to join. NATO doesn't go and conquer territory to force nations in and expand some imperial border and threaten Russia.

I think this alone speaks volumes: countries flock to NATO in order to ensure a prosperous future. For Russia to get anyone to join their orbit, they have to invade and force them in at gunpoint, because nobody wants to align with them voluntarily.

Countries like Finland, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechia, Slovakia, and Romania join NATO explicitly because they are rightly afraid of what Russia might do to them if they didn't have protection under the umbrella. Ukraine is the latest cautionary tale of what happens if you neighbor Russia and aren't armed to the teeth. They will violate your borders and kill your people.

Well said. These isolationist types are fueled by oversimplified notions of “we should take of our own before helping out others,” not realizing we are taking care of America’s interests by being involved.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

There's one key problem with that comparison. Europe is a group of nations, not just one nation. The US is one nation. It's spin to look like the US isn't contributing all that much. It's given more than any other single country and it isn't even close.
Number 1: US 114.6 billion
Number 2: Germany 21.2 billion
Number 3: U.K. 18.6 billion


So for the EU to sit there and ask the US to fund reconstruction is laughable.

If you factor in non-weapons support, the EU actually has contributed more than the United States.

According to the Kiel institute, the EU and US have spent nearly an identical amount on aid. This includes military and financial contributions that have kept the Ukrainian state solvent during the war:
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-us-russia-aid/33337524.html

If you include the $131 billion the EU has spent supporting the resettlement of millions of Ukrainian women and children in their nations, the EU has outspent the US 2:1 which constitutes a more than fair arrangement.

These are not opinions, they are facts that can be independently verified.

 

[triplets_93]

US and Europe will 'formalise' security guarantees for Ukraine within 10 days, Zelensky says​

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...tees-for-ukraine-within-10-days-zelensky-says