Why the draft cannot fix every roster hole

[75boyz]

For this mgmt team and their philosophy they very little wiggle room if they do not hit on their drafts over multiple years with multiple rounds of draftees contributing to their team.

Once they blow one high round draft pick, either a one or a two, then they are in a talent deficit because they won't look at free agency as a solution for your errors in drafting.

If you don't hit on your high draft picks and you only feed on the bottom of the barrel in FA, then you are in a deficit.

This is a really good summary of the poor draft trickle down effect the Cowboys are currently experiencing.

Really nice job.
In a deficit is my new catch phrase when describing the team.

Cowboys!

 

[kskboys]

For this mgmt team and their philosophy they very little wiggle room if they do not hit on their drafts over multiple years with multiple rounds of draftees contributing to their team.

Once they blow one high round draft pick, either a one or a two, then they are in a talent deficit because they won't look at free agency as a solution for your errors in drafting.

If you don't hit on your high draft picks and you only feed on the bottom of the barrel in FA, then you are in a deficit.

It's even worse than that. They are not smart enough to use FA.

 

[DarkVader33]

You could trade now. You dont have to wait.

If you do, you run the risk of him not being there. Or someone you really want.

 

[DarkVader33]

For this mgmt team and their philosophy they very little wiggle room if they do not hit on their drafts over multiple years with multiple rounds of draftees contributing to their team.

Once they blow one high round draft pick, either a one or a two, then they are in a talent deficit because they won't look at free agency as a solution for your errors in drafting.

If you don't hit on your high draft picks and you only feed on the bottom of the barrel in FA, then you are in a deficit.

I think it was Parcels that said it didn’t matter which picks hit. As long as enough hit.

 

[MapleLeaf]

I think it was Parcels that said it didn’t matter which picks hit. As long as enough hit.

Absolutely, but long term statistics shows that 1st and 2nd round players have a higher probability of making an impact and being a starter as opposed to later rounds.

We all want the high round picks to be successful, and should demand that. If we hit on later round picks that should be the icing to the cake.

My worry is the Cowboys are messaging that they need starters out of their two first rounders. That is a lot of pressure on a drafting team that has not done well in the past on the defensive side.

I'm not looking for the next JJ Watt and Luke Kuechly here.

If we could get another Greg Ellis and Dat Nguyen we should be through the moon with that result.

 

[tunahelper]

It's not about liking them cheap, it's about spending way too much of their alloted cap on the wrong players leaving pennies for FA.

Agreed but they still like them cheap. They have had cap money and still chose not to spend on FA. Stephen has said it many times they will not overspend on tier 1 FA.

 

[kskboys]

Agreed but they still like them cheap. They have had cap money and still chose not to spend on FA. Stephen has said it many times they will not overspend on tier 1 FA.

No, they don't like them cheap, they are forced to go cheap due to horrific cap mgmt and player evaluations.

 

[tunahelper]

No, they don't like them cheap, they are forced to go cheap due to horrific cap mgmt and player evaluations.

Sorry but they have had plenty of cap to spend and it is flexible. Stephen Jones is on record stating they will not pay top tier free agency prices. That in fact makes them cheap.

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

Remember when we thought that the draft, at least, was someone the team was good at.

Those days are long gone

We have 21 people listed as being part of the scouting department on the team page. Even Josh Brent is in on it.

McClay and that entire group need to he reevaluated and purged.

I hear Warren Sapp is free.

 

[75boyz]

Remember when we thought that the draft, at least, was someone the team was good at.

Those days are long gone

We have 21 people listed as being part of the scouting department on the team page. Even Josh Brent is in on it.

McClay and that entire group need to he reevaluated and purged.

Good call man.
Especially whoever is specifically in charge of defensive line scouting.
My gosh when was the last time an impressive d lineman was drafted?

Micah?
Who wasn't exactly a first choice or totally seen as a primary edge when first drafted.

But before him who?
Probably Lawrence.
I'm being totally serious here cuz it seems they tend to miss on almost all the d linemen they draft usually.

 

[CowboyFanInLexKy]

Any competent GM knows this
which is why the Boys are 30 years and counting as mediocrity or worse

Trades, FA and Draft is a tripod that supports a championship team
Resigning your own but never paying for new players means the structure will always collapse

Honestly I think the "We like our own" is just another way of them saying they're too lazy to see who is truly out there that can enhance the team.

 

[cristglo]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

Stephen has had that kind of philosophy "We build through the Draft" The problem has been we have never had any "GOOD" talent to coach help the young guy's thus last year NO Help for our young upcoming talent they all looked lost.
Same goes with our Scout team we got sorry to say "OLD" players where we need younger talented scouts that are caught up with the Game of today.
We keep doing the same thing with the same people the same Philosophy and we wonder WHY we can't get over the hump.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

Such as a competent GM?

That'd certainly help

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

Anyone who says "we draft well"...should get permaban!

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Stephen has had that kind of philosophy "We build through the Draft" The problem has been we have never had any "GOOD" talent to coach help the young guy's thus last year NO Help for our young upcoming talent they all looked lost.
Same goes with our Scout team we got sorry to say "OLD" players where we need younger talented scouts that are caught up with the Game of today.
We keep doing the same thing with the same people the same Philosophy and we wonder WHY we can't get over the hump.

SO drafting injured (sometimes terribly!) and "project" (attitude) players have nothing to do with it?

I'm hesitant to lay all the blame on coaches. I don't thuink we draft well...either reach or try to outsmart the rest of the league (say players other teams passed on that Jerry thinks "I'll show 'em!".

It could also be um...dare I say..."culture" of being Dallas Cowboys. A few former players have hinted it. Might be a sense of spoiled entitlement there?

 

[gtb1943]

SO drafting injured (sometimes terribly!) and "project" (attitude) players have nothing to do with it?

I'm hesitant to lay all the blame on coaches. I don't thuink we draft well...either reach or try to outsmart the rest of the league (say players other teams passed on that Jerry thinks "I'll show 'em!".

It could also be um...dare I say..."culture" of being Dallas Cowboys. A few former players have hinted it. Might be a sense of spoiled entitlement there?

Frankly the whole FO is rotten. Probably some good people there but nowhere near enough.

 

[kskboys]

Sorry but they have had plenty of cap to spend and it is flexible. Stephen Jones is on record stating they will not pay top tier free agency prices. That in fact makes them cheap.

No they don't. That's a fan farce.

You listen to those frauds? For Bog's sake, why would you do that?

Listen closely. The Cowboys spend major major amounts on their own FAs. That leaves very little for FA. And since they've proven to be horrific at evaluating talent, spending big would be stupid anyway.

How did this ridiculous belief get started that we have plenty of cap space? It's blatantly not true. Is that what the incredibly inept media is spewing?

 

[kskboys]

Stephen has had that kind of philosophy "We build through the Draft" The problem has been we have never had any "GOOD" talent to coach help the young guy's thus last year NO Help for our young upcoming talent they all looked lost.
Same goes with our Scout team we got sorry to say "OLD" players where we need younger talented scouts that are caught up with the Game of today.
We keep doing the same thing with the same people the same Philosophy and we wonder WHY we can't get over the hump.

Not even close. The problem is lack of talent, especially in key positions.

Soooo, where is all this talent you are screaming we have? We're letting a pile of players walk, specifically on D. If we have so much talent, then why are other teams not falling all over themselves to sign them?

Where in the world did this utterly incorrect fan idea get started that we have loads of talent? One of the most ridiculous things ever claimed on this site.

 

[SteveTheCowboy]

Not even close. The problem is lack of talent, especially in key positions.

Soooo, where is all this talent you are screaming we have? We're letting a pile of players walk, specifically on D. If we have so much talent, then why are other teams not falling all over themselves to sign them?

Where in the world did this utterly incorrect fan idea get started that we have loads of talent? One of the most ridiculous things ever claimed on this site.

It truly is. Cowboys hyped up to draft players other teams hard pass on. Then have to let them go cheap or for nothing. Few do much on other teams if they manage to get there.

Draft sucks and Bob proves it. I know draft can be a crap shoot bu those numbers SUCK!

 

[gtb1943]

the current policy the Boys have on building a team is fatally flawed
You would have to average 4 starters a draft to really make the rest of it work
and since its clear our evaluation process is mediocre at best, this means that neither FA or the Draft is going to contribute what is needed.