Why the draft cannot fix every roster hole

[Verdict]

I don't even think he's a nice player any more. He has been terrible since coming back from his foot injury. Rewarding him for what he did in 2023 baffled the entire league. There was no market for the guy so why we giving him 90M? The answer is Jerry gets sentimental. He was so proud of finding an all-pro in round 5 that he never noticed that Bland wasn't flashing that 2023 form anymore. New coaching staff is talking about moving him into the slot bc he can't cover outside.

Paying for past performance is a big issue here.

Yes. That’s correct.

He was a nice player. We definitely have an issue with paying for past performance. That doesn’t help win now.

We should be hesitant to pay guys who get seriously injured. But the Cowboys do it routinely.

 

[doomsday9084]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

If you go by team, the odds will go up and down wildly. Quite simply, the best teams draft well and the periods that Dallas was good usually were after a few good drafts in a row. Sure, you have to top it off with outside acquisitions but the core of a good NFL team is invariably built in the draft. You can't use across the board odds and say that they are fixed. That's like saying all baseball hitters have the same batting average.

 

[StarBoyz83]

Dallas is at least 3 years away from being contenders. They just need to not draft busts with the 1st and 2nd round picks. Especially 2nd round. They've been terrible there for 25 years.

 

[75boyz]

I don't even think he's a nice player any more. He has been terrible since coming back from his foot injury. Rewarding him for what he did in 2023 baffled the entire league. There was no market for the guy so why we giving him 90M? The answer is Jerry gets sentimental. He was so proud of finding an all-pro in round 5 that he never noticed that Bland wasn't flashing that 2023 form anymore. New coaching staff is talking about moving him into the slot bc he can't cover outside.

Paying for past performance is a big issue here.

And you didn't even mention how both he and Diggs were products off of Micah's quick pressure in that that allowed them to jump routes. Which is what they both excelled at. Its no coincidence now that since all that quick pressure on the QB has disappeared that Diggs and Bland's picks production has fallen off a cliff.

But everything you said here regarding Bland's injury/health situation is true as well.

So it basically boils down to another extremely low return on investment on a second contract overpay.
Another Jerry Special.
Good call.

 

[Hadenough]

It can’t fix everything but it can begin the healing process by drafting solid defensive players. They take and RBs, WRs, OT,LT, TE and they are regressing.

 

[tunahelper]

The Cowboys traded for Pickens, Quinnen and Clark last year. I would say all three of those were “hits”. We also traded for other guys last year, that were pretty much a swing and a miss. But I have to say the Cowboys were trying.

The Cowboys always add additional free agents that have already played in the league. Some of these guys hit and some miss. Usually there is some degree of correlation between higher play and better players.

We also usually add quite a few UDFAs. Some of those guys end up to be legit players for us.

The Cowboys usually do exactly what you are saying they don’t do. Lol. They are just sometimes not very good at it.

I realize that you want the Cowboys to add additional higher priced free agents. But Pickens is taking up $28M out of the cap this year. I would say that’s legitimate free agent dollars right there. I’m just sayin’.

The players they target in FA is the issue. They dont acquire quality players instead they shoot for cheap one year deal fill in the gap crap shoots.

 

[kskboys]

The players they target in FA is the issue. They dont acquire quality players instead they shoot for cheap one year deal fill in the gap crap shoots.

Yup. Because we overpay our own and often pay the wrong players. Leaves pocket change for FA. And then add in that we are completely inept at evaluating talent, and you have almost useless FA pickups.

 

[Verdict]

The players they target in FA is the issue. They dont acquire quality players instead they shoot for cheap one year deal fill in the gap crap shoots.

One year deals don’t keep players from playing well. If anything said players remain highly motivated to over perform. We only had one year of control when we traded for Pickens.

The Cowboys have lots of failures and bad decisions but, in my opinion, one year deals are not a part of the same.

 

[kskboys]

One year deals don’t keep players from playing well. If anything said players remain highly motivated to over perform. We only had one year of control when we traded for Pickens.

The Cowboys have lots of failures and bad decisions but, in my opinion, one year deals are not a part of the same.

Agree. The bigger problem, nay the elephant in the room, is our extreme ineptitude at player evaluations. Murray and Elam are the latest examples. Neither was a youngster, both had proven to not be NFL starters. Soooo, why did we acquire them again? Easy answer, because Jerry and his merry band cannot evaluate players. And if any of our scouts or whomever told him to acquire Elam and Murray, they should be immediately fired.

I knew from my couch that these two sucked, there's just no way that info wasn't available to them. So, why?

 

[tunahelper]

One year deals don’t keep players from playing well. If anything said players remain highly motivated to over perform. We only had one year of control when we traded for Pickens.

The Cowboys have lots of failures and bad decisions but, in my opinion, one year deals are not a part of the same.

1 year deal is typically because there is a value imbalance between the players ability and his cost. Jones boys like them cheap and that typically means the player is less talented.

 

[kskboys]

1 year deal is typically because there is a value imbalance between the players ability and his cost. Jones boys like them cheap and that typically means the player is less talented.

It's not about liking them cheap, it's about spending way too much of their alloted cap on the wrong players leaving pennies for FA.

 

[DarkVader33]

1 year deal is typically because there is a value imbalance between the players ability and his cost. Jones boys like them cheap and that typically means the player is less talented.

Have you seen the FA thread? There are hundreds of one year signings by every single team in the league. Ya, the jones suck but it isn’t because of the one year deals. It’s who they acquire that’s the issue.

 

[fivetwos]

V it’s more than just the cap. Some of the players we drafted were not handled well financially when they were here.

What I mean by that is by the third year of a player’s rookie deal, teams should know whether they are working out or not. If they are, extend them early at cheaper prices than waiting.

Most of the time though with their better players, this FO waits and waits, which costs more. They could have signed Dak for lot less on his first deal if they hadn’t waited. Same for his current contract which they way overpaid. They did pay Tyler Smith early which was smart and saved them some cap space. But they usually wait too long.

The Cowboys hang on to players they drafted and like, then balk at paying them market price when the time comes. Good teams decide early what they want to do and then do it.

Waiting is losing is NFL cap management.

You write so much good stuff some of it goes overlooked. This one probably qualifies.

 

[Verdict]

1 year deal is typically because there is a value imbalance between the players ability and his cost. Jones boys like them cheap and that typically means the player is less talented.

Less talented or other issues. But yes. That’s a fair statement. But we did get our RB on a one year prove it deal. So that aren’t all bad.

 

[Verdict]

It's not about liking them cheap, it's about spending way too much of their alloted cap on the wrong players leaving pennies for FA.

This is a very astute point my friend. Preach it.

 

[tomokawan]

The trade would not happen until Cleveland is on the clock. Meaning the trade would not happen unless the player, Styles in your scenario, is still there.

You could trade now. You dont have to wait.

 

[MapleLeaf]

But they must hit on this draft. And in 2027 as well.

For this mgmt team and their philosophy they very little wiggle room if they do not hit on their drafts over multiple years with multiple rounds of draftees contributing to their team.

Once they blow one high round draft pick, either a one or a two, then they are in a talent deficit because they won't look at free agency as a solution for your errors in drafting.

If you don't hit on your high draft picks and you only feed on the bottom of the barrel in FA, then you are in a deficit.

 

[MapleLeaf]

Good post. As a fan I love the draft, and in a cap league it’s crucial to hit on some of these picks, but the harsh reality is that finding one starter and a role player in a draft class is a decent year for a team.

Draft odds aren’t very good overall and it should be used to supplement your roster, not address immediate needs….especially after the top half of round 1.

The probem is what is this is your only real source of talent because you are allergic to top flight free agents?

If finding legitimate starters in a draft is hard, and that is what you hang your hat on, then what do you have left for adding talent?

Coaching them up?

BTW, in the past couple of years I have been owndering if this has also been Jerry's strategy. I will only hire coaches who tell me they can 'coach players up' so I can be comfortable in my FA strategy.

Don't need to worry about missing in the draft. Teh coach promises me he can 'coach them up'.

 

[gtb1943]

Overall FO incompetency is the real problem

it just manifests itself more on FA then anyplace else
What we do there is a fundamental weakness

 

[kskboys]

You could trade now. You dont have to wait.

If you want to overpay.