Why the draft cannot fix every roster hole

[Spottswoode]

Jazz, as you said we have tons of holes to fill. And sometimes trading down for more picks is a good option.

Yes, we MUST hit on this draft. But IMO this year is not the year to “trade down to get extra picks”. Because I believe we need an impact defender that can help now and be around as a good starter for years.

The odds of collecting a bunch more of Day 2 picks and then those guys having immediate impact are low. At least according to history. We would have to be very lucky.

Personally I am pro trading down specifically this year as I believe the top of the draft is weak and the 2nd round is strong.

Using the numbers you provided (50% 1st, 33% 2nd), from a pure mathematical standpoint, your odds of finding a long-term starter would be slightly higher with two 2nd vs. one 1st. In stronger prospect years, I would stand pat. But IMO, this is not one of those years.

 

[kskboys]

I think that has been a fundamental philosophical issue.
In round 2, Jerry has a fairly long record of trying to beat the league by taking a stud athlete who is dropping from round 1 due to injury or character. He has so often gambled on getting first round value in round 2 when he should have been looking at solid starters with high floors. In rounds 2-4, especially, give me the productive, high floor guys who don’t have star potential but should become solid starters you don’t worry about.

Whether it’s from all his failures or Will or Stephen or coaches, I think he’s gradually started to move away from gambling on greatness and looking more at guys who are high character, productive in college, guys who should become starters or contributors. But he’s not there yet.

Never thought I'd miss Bradie James this badly.

 

[Verdict]

V it’s more than just the cap. Some of the players we drafted were not handled well financially when they were here.

What I mean by that is by the third year of a player’s rookie deal, teams should know whether they are working out or not. If they are, extend them early at cheaper prices than waiting.

Most of the time though with their better players, this FO waits and waits, which costs more. They could have signed Dak for lot less on his first deal if they hadn’t waited. Same for his current contract which they way overpaid. They did pay Tyler Smith early which was smart and saved them some cap space. But they usually wait too long.

The Cowboys hang on to players they drafted and like, then balk at paying them market price when the time comes. Good teams decide early what they want to do and then do it.

Waiting is losing is NFL cap management.

I an ideal world (from the Cowboys team perspective) players would sign with a year in their deal (extension) or be traded for draft compensation. That requires the Cowboys to KNOW what they want to do with the player AND the player has to want to agree to sign with the Cowboys and they have to agree on compensation.

The Cowboys may have cost themselves a bit of extra money on Dak. The Cowboys cost themselves some extra money by paying Crawford early. It’s an inexact science.

Ideally, it would work out like you are suggesting. But there are so many moving parts to these situations it is very difficult to know the actual status of negotiations, if any. We don’t know what we don’t know.

 

[Verdict]

Personally I am pro trading down specifically this year as I believe the top of the draft is weak and the 2nd round is strong.

Using the numbers you provided (50% 1st, 33% 2nd), from a pure mathematical standpoint, your odds of finding a long-term starter would be slightly higher with two 2nd vs. one 1st. In stronger prospect years, I would stand pat. But IMO, this is not one of those years.

I totally agree.

 

[kskboys]

The Cowboys traded for Pickens, Quinnen and Clark last year. I would say all three of those were “hits”. We also traded for other guys last year, that were pretty much a swing and a miss. But I have to say the Cowboys were trying.

The Cowboys always add additional free agents that have already played in the league. Some of these guys hit and some miss. Usually there is some degree of correlation between higher play and better players.

We also usually add quite a few UDFAs. Some of those guys end up to be legit players for us.

The Cowboys usually do exactly what you are saying they don’t do. Lol. They are just sometimes not very good at it.

I realize that you want the Cowboys to add additional higher priced free agents. But Pickens is taking up $28M out of the cap this year. I would say that’s legitimate free agent dollars right there. I’m just sayin’.

Depends on how you define "trying".

Not doing your homework on players like Murray and Elam is the polar oppoisite of trying. Giving up valuable draft picks for Joe Milton is not "trying".

Unless you define "trying" as getting drunk on Johnnie Walker and throwing darts left handed at 134 feet while groping strippers.

 

[kskboys]

show me any SB team that did not have high priced OUTSIDE Free Agents.
Now that is not the only problem but it is the one that has been absolute since Carr.
Our Draft is average; we do fairly well in the early rounds but lousy in the later
We overpay for our own OVER RATED players and refuse to pay better from outside the team
We do OK on trades; I would say above average there and we made some really progress since last mid season.
NONE of our legs are championship caliber
bluntly speaking overall our FO has produced the team that reflects the Front Office like all teams do
BP said it best: you are what your record says you are
MEDIOCRE

Sea? I'm not aware of any high priced FAs on the team. Darnold was a bargain.

 

[kskboys]

again?? same topic 10 different ways....lol polls etc redundancy..man This is literally the same topic over and over and over There's 5 months left why do we keep talking about the roster before is finished it is nowhere near complete..UGHH

Oh, no, people we've upset Blue. Now y'all know that every topic presented is completely fresh and new, so this repeat topics stuff gotta stop. Oh, and we're now not allowed to reiterate anything we've said in the past. Watch it now, people, or Blue will hold his breath!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Diehardblues]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

Bob, you always seem to put some excellent research into these type of threads.

It interesting to know the percentages of how long draft picks stay around. Which leads me to my question or thought.

What is the overall percentage teams retain or resign their draft picks?

I’m thinking with rosters turning over close to 20- 30% almost every year it’s not very high.

And would be even more interesting to know the comparison to pre Cap era which I’d think we retained many more draft picks.

 

[Diehardblues]

Oh, no, people we've upset Blue. Now y'all know that every topic presented is completely fresh and new, so this repeat topics stuff gotta stop. Oh, and we're now not allowed to reiterate anything we've said in the past. Watch it now, people, or Blue will hold his breath!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To him any critical rhetoric or thinking is nothing but negative. Rinse and repeat.

 

[kskboys]

To him any critical rhetoric or thinking is nothing but negative. Rinse and repeat.

I cannot fathom contributing to this site and knowing that no one reads what you write and not caring that they don't.

 

[atlantacowboy]

The Bland deal last fall was mystifying. Bland’s best year was aided greatly by having a great pass rush. Since the departure of Parsons his interceptions have dropped off and his foot injuries have turned him into an injury risk.

It seems this organization overvalues people they draft and undervalues people they didn’t. The new contracts for Bland and Ferguson exemplify this. I like those guys ok but they are being paid above their abilities.

Meanwhile we once again hear the annual high and mournful sound of this FO telling us how cap-strapped they are. See above.

They basically paid him in 2025 for what he did in 2023. Typical Dallas Cowboys move.

 

[Coogiguy03]

Who is better Pickens or Brown

 

[atlantacowboy]

The Bland contract is another example of what I have been saying for years. Nice player but an overpay.

I don't even think he's a nice player any more. He has been terrible since coming back from his foot injury. Rewarding him for what he did in 2023 baffled the entire league. There was no market for the guy so why we giving him 90M? The answer is Jerry gets sentimental. He was so proud of finding an all-pro in round 5 that he never noticed that Bland wasn't flashing that 2023 form anymore. New coaching staff is talking about moving him into the slot bc he can't cover outside.

Paying for past performance is a big issue here.

 

[john van brocklin]

The best NFL organizations have realized the last 10-15 years you cannot build a championship quality roster almost exclusively through the draft. Here is the simplest explanation why:

• The odds of rookies giving us instant roster fixes are low. Even first round picks only have about a 50% success rate as long term starters. Rounds 2-7 drop even more. Big time draft immediate star hits are not that common.
• That is why mixing a few quality veteran FA signings with at least a two year commitment are the best way to plug holes if you want to win NOW.

Look at draft success rates by round:

• Round 1: about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round develop into long term NFL starters (3 years or more)
• Round 2: about 33% of 2nd rounders develop into long term NFL starters.
• Round 3: about 16%
• Round 4: about 8%
• Round 5: about 4%
• Round 6: about 2%
• Round 7: about 1%

So as much as we look forward to the draft this week, a lot of those guys won’t be around that long. Don’t believe me? Look at how many guys we still have on the roster from our last 6 drafts:

• 2020 draft: 1 of 7 picks remains: Cedee Lamb
• 2021 draft: 0 of 10 picks remain
• 2022 draft: 4 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Smith, Sam Williams, Deron Bland and Jake Ferguson
• 2023 draft: 2 of 8 picks remain: Luke Schoonmaker and DeMarvion Overshown
• 2024 draft: 6 of 9 picks remain: Tyler Guyton, Cooper Bebee, Marist Liafau, Caelon Carson, Ryan Flournoy and Nate Thomas
• 2025 draft: 8 of 9: Booker, Ezeiruaku, Revel, Blue, James, Cornelius, Toia and Mafa.

So of the 52 players we drafted the last 6 years, 21 are still with the team (about 40%) Of those 21 players, between 10-12 are starters (just over 20%)

So as we get ready for the big draft this week just remember that maybe 20% of the guys we get are going to work out.

That pretty much explains why if we are ever going to get serious about competing again for a championship, we are going to need more than draft picks.

Yes, you need to pay up to play in free agency
Our front office is allergic to paying for free agents
Don’t make your Super Bowl plans around the cowboys being there anytime soon.

 

[krs1bro]

Total crap shoot with the draft every year forum. Especially this day and time!! What is the percentage of draft picks 1rd thru 3rd that make it past the average of 3 years? Curious. Eliteness is far and few on average.

 

[dupree89]

Yes, you need to pay up to play in free agency
Our front office is allergic to paying for free agents
Don’t make your Super Bowl plans around the cowboys being there anytime soon.

john I'm hoping for a playoff appearance this year. Am I gonna be disappointed again sir?

 

[stuckindc]

Personally I am pro trading down specifically this year as I believe the top of the draft is weak and the 2nd round is strong.

Using the numbers you provided (50% 1st, 33% 2nd), from a pure mathematical standpoint, your odds of finding a long-term starter would be slightly higher with two 2nd vs. one 1st. In stronger prospect years, I would stand pat. But IMO, this is not one of those years.

Agree 100%. The issue is JJ and SJ and their stellar drafting ability

 

[stuckindc]

I don't even think he's a nice player any more. He has been terrible since coming back from his foot injury. Rewarding him for what he did in 2023 baffled the entire league. There was no market for the guy so why we giving him 90M? The answer is Jerry gets sentimental. He was so proud of finding an all-pro in round 5 that he never noticed that Bland wasn't flashing that 2023 form anymore. New coaching staff is talking about moving him into the slot bc he can't cover outside.

Paying for past performance is a big issue here.

And on the heals of the Diggs contract. They like to double down

 

[Brooksey]

Several of those guys we lost are “still in the league”. But what good is that if they aren’t here?

If you would like to research how many guys the Cowboys have drafted are still in the NFL, here is a good link:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/dal/draft.htm

Your post title says the draft can't fix the roster holes which makes no sense. If we walk away from this draft with rookies like Micah, Osa and Diggs, we would be on our way to fixing the defensive roster. Due to salary cap and other factors not all players are offered a 2nd contract or not traded, and sometimes their play drops off. That's life for the entire league

 

[DarkVader33]

Yea, would lean to staying pat or trading up. My concern now is the Giants have picks 5 and 10. If we traded with Cleveland at 6. Knowing our luck, the Giants would take Styles at 5.

The trade would not happen until Cleveland is on the clock. Meaning the trade would not happen unless the player, Styles in your scenario, is still there.