Historical Team Rankings

[percyhoward]

This is an update of a post from last year.

To get an idea of teams' strengths and weaknesses over the history of the franchise, I looked at pass offense, run offense, pass defense, and run defense rankings for every Cowboys team since the beginning. For each category I used the stat with the highest correlation to winning, that being pass rating in the pass categories, and touchdowns in the run categories. So the ranking you see for pass offense is offensive pass rating, pass defense uses defensive pass rating (opposing QB rating), run offense uses rushing TD, and run defense uses rushing TD allowed.

The rankings are in the order of offensive pass rating, rushing TD, defensive pass rating, and rushing TD allowed. I then took the average of the four rankings to make a team ranking (in parentheses). For example, this...

2007 4th, 10th, 5th, 17th (9.0)*

means that in 2007, the team finished 4th in offensive pass rating, 10th in rushing TD, 5th in defensive pass rating, and 17th in rushing TD allowed, for an average team ranking of 9th. The asterisk means that team qualified for the playoffs, as you would expect a team with an average ranking of 9th to do.

I also adjusted the average ranking for league size. For example...

1965 8th, 12th, 5th, 8th (18.9)

Even though the 1965 team had an average rank of 8.25, that team played in a 14-team league. Obviously, their "8th of 14" was not as good as the 2007 team's "9th of 32". To facilitate comparison of teams across eras, all rankings have been adjusted to what they would be in a 32-team league. That 1965 team's four rankings averaged out to about 19th in a 32-team league, which would be no surprise for a .500 team (That team was 7-7).

Here are the 55 regular seasons.

1960 12th, 13th, 12th, 13th (30.8)
1961 8th, 14th, 7th, 12th (23.4)
1962 1st, 6th, 13th, 7th (15.4)
1963 8th, 2nd, 9th, 4th (13.1)
1964 14th, 4th, 6th, 1st (14.3)
1965 8th, 12th, 5th, 8th (18.9)
1966 3rd, 1st, 5th, 1st (5.3)*
1967 7th, 9th, 6th, 4th (13.0)*
1968 4th, 1st, 7th, 1st (6.5)*
1969 3rd, 1st, 6th, 1st (5.5)*
1970 5th, 3rd, 3rd, 9th (6.2)*
1971 1st, 1st, 7th, 5th (4.3)*
1972 15th, 8th, 14th, 2nd (12.0)*
1973 1st, 4th, 12th, 1st (5.5)*
1974 9th, 2nd, 23rd, 5th (12.0)
1975 7th, 10th, 6th, 6th (8.9)*
1976 6th, 9th, 9th, 8th (9.1)*
1977 2nd, 1st, 4th, 7th (4.0)*
1978 1st, 3rd, 4th, 8th (4.6)*
1979 1st, 18th, 18th, 10th (13.4)*
1980 7th, 1st, 7th, 14th (8.3)*
1981 5th, 14th, 1st, 14th (5.4)*
1982 6th, 10th, 8th, 2nd (7.4)*
1983 5th, 3rd, 16th, 8th (9.1)*
1984 23rd, 20th, 2nd, 1st (13.1)
1985 7th, 23rd, 4th, 17th (14.6)*
1986 11th, 4th, 12th, 21st (13.7)
1987 11th, 5th, 10th, 27th (15.2)
1988 18th, 23rd, 28th, 8th (22.0)
1989 28th, 27th, 28th, 21st (29.7)
1990 28th, 14th, 13th, 23rd (22.3)
1991 7th, 12th, 18th, 12th (14.0)*
1992 3rd, 2nd, 10th, 11th (7.4)*
1993 2nd, 2nd, 14th, 5th (6.6)*
1994 4th, 1st, 1st, 3rd (2.6)*
1995 5th, 1st, 8th, 14th (7.5)*
1996 16th, 10th, 2nd, 9th (9.9)*
1997 17th, 28th, 16th, 12th (19.5)
1998 8th, 2nd, 11th, 10th (8.3)*
1999 11th, 5th, 7th, 2nd (7.0)*
2000 27th, 9th, 16th, 15th (17.3)
2001 30th, 26th, 19th, 19th (24.3)
2002 28th, 30th, 8th, 5th (17.8)
2003 23rd, 21st, 3rd, 3rd (12.5)*
2004 24th, 13th, 27th, 20th (21.0)
2005 12th, 14th, 9th, 17th (13.0)
2006 8th, 3rd, 20th, 11th (10.5)*
2007 4th, 10th, 5th, 17th (9.0)*
2008 13th, 22nd, 20th, 8th (15.8)
2009 6th, 15th, 16th, 4th (10.3)*
2010 12th, 29th, 21st, 12th (18.5)
2011 4th, 30th, 25th, 6th (16.3)
2012 9th, 27th, 29th, 26th (22.8)
2013 7th, 18th, 26th, 26th (19.3)
2014 1st, 5th, 13th, 31st (12.5)*

When the average ranking is above 12.0, the team always makes the playoffs (24 of 24 seasons).

When the average ranking is 12.0-14.6, the team makes the playoffs about half the time (7 of 13 seasons).

When the average ranking is lower than 14.6, the team never makes the playoffs (0 of 18 seasons).

Of course, the defense is playing as well as it has all year, otherwise our playoff run would be over. The defense's average ranking of 22.0 is exactly the same as the Giants' 2011 regular season ranking when they won the Super Bowl. But it is worth noting that this is the worst regular season Cowboys defense that ever made the playoffs. Dallas is the first team ever to qualify for the post season with a ranking as low as 31st in rushing TD allowed.

Years when we ranked in the top 5 in both offensive categories:
1966: lost NFL Championship
1968: lost Divisional Round
1969: lost Divisional Round
1970: lost Super Bowl
1971: World Champions
1973: lost NFC Championship
1977: World Champions
1978: lost Super Bowl
1983: lost Wild Card Round
1992: World Champions
1993: World Champions
1994: lost NFC Championship
1995: World Champions
2014: ?

Years when average ranking in both offensive categories and defensive pass rating was equal to or higher than 2014:
1966: lost NFL Championship
1968: lost Divisional Round
1969: lost Divisional Round
1970: lost Super Bowl
1971: World Champions
1973: lost NFC Championship
1977: World Champions
1978: lost Super Bowl
1980: lost NFC Championship
1992: World Champions
1993: World Champions
1994: lost NFC Championship
1995: World Champions
2007: lost Divisional Round
2014: ?

 

[Risen Star]

You're a gem, Percy Howard.

Worst Cowboys defense to ever make the playoffs.

We can't lose Rod Marinelli.

 

[Idgit]

You're a gem, Percy Howard.

Worst Cowboys defense to ever make the playoffs.

We can't lose Rod Marinelli.

It's good stuff.

How you coming up with worst defense to make the playoffs number?

 

[Risen Star]

It's good stuff.

How you coming up with worst defense to make the playoffs number?

By reading the thread.

 

[Idgit]

By reading the thread.

No need for snark. Just post like a normal person. What am I misreading?

EDIT: Ah. Percy said it explicitly. I was just looking at his data. I take it, percy, these four categories have very similar weights in terms of their impact on winning football games, which is why you're averaging them directly?

And, separately, I'm kind of surprised that we're that low in terms of rushing TDs allowed. It really hasn't felt that way watching the games. Especially since we've been pretty effective against the run, overall.

 

[Risen Star]

No need for snark. Just post like a normal person. What am I misreading?

EDIT: Ah. Percy said it explicitly. I was just looking at his data. I take it, percy, these four categories have very similar weights in terms of their impact on winning football games, which is why you're averaging them directly?

And, separately, I'm kind of surprised that we're that low in terms of rushing TDs allowed. It really hasn't felt that way watching the games. Especially since we've been pretty effective against the run, overall.

I can't help that the truth came off as snark. You asked me how I knew it was the worst in team history in a thread that broke down how they were the worst.

I'm not surprised at all. Because the talent on defense is woefully lacking and frankly the last two years have been embarrassing to watch.

My only other thought is we cannot lose Rod Marinelli. I can't even imagine what we'll do without him.

 

[jobberone]

It also says our defense is ranked as the last time the Giants won the SB. Additionally we are playing better defense and generating better pressure. We're as hot as any team. Playing close games early on in the playoffs does not necessarily predict doing poorly in later games.

 

[jobberone]

I can't help that the truth came off as snark. You asked me how I knew it was the worst in team history in a thread that broke down how they were the worst.

I'm not surprised at all. Because the talent on defense is woefully lacking and frankly the last two years have been embarrassing to watch.

My only other thought is we cannot lose Rod Marinelli. I can't even imagine what we'll do without him.

Yes, you can help coming across as snarky. And you can stop trolling with the inane Marinelli nonsense. He doesn't do the grocery shopping and most, excluding your snark, think he's done a pretty good job with the talent he's had esp considering the injuries. Perhaps they are more talented than you think, There's evidence the talent level may just be better than woeful.

 

[Jenky]

No need for snark. Just post like a normal person. What am I misreading?

EDIT: Ah. Percy said it explicitly. I was just looking at his data. I take it, percy, these four categories have very similar weights in terms of their impact on winning football games, which is why you're averaging them directly?

And, separately, I'm kind of surprised that we're that low in terms of rushing TDs allowed. It really hasn't felt that way watching the games. Especially since we've been pretty effective against the run, overall.

I was surprised too, but then I looked up rushing defenses on ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/t...shingTouchdowns/position/defense/seasontype/2

The def has given up 18 rushing TDs which ranks 31st.

 

[jobberone]

How many rushing TDs have they given up over the last 1/2 and last 1/4 of the season?

 

[yimyammer]

My only other thought is we cannot lose Rod Marinelli. I can't even imagine what we'll do without him.

Anyone want to clarify whether this comment is sarcasm? I'm leaning toward a yes, but I can be slow on the uptick

 

[Risen Star]

Yes, you can help coming across as snarky. And you can stop trolling with the inane Marinelli nonsense. He doesn't do the grocery shopping and most, excluding your snark, think he's done a pretty good job with the talent he's had esp considering the injuries. Perhaps they are more talented than you think, There's evidence the talent level may just be better than woeful.

He asked how I came up with that. I answered by reading this thread. I fail to see the issue. Was I supposed to ignore that so you two feel better?

No. They are not more talented than I think. Perhaps you hope they are. Percy just illustrated how bad they've been. For two years now. Under Rod Marinelli. Who I pray to God the Cowboys don't lose.

 

[Risen Star]

Anyone want to clarify whether this comment is sarcasm? I'm leaning toward a yes, but I can be slow on the uptick

You are not that slow.

 

[yimyammer]

You are not that slow.

apparently I am tonight on this subject

So you're not a fan of Marinelli or are you saying you think everyone is over rating him

 

[windward]

I don't know how finishing 31st in rushing TDs allowed means we have the worst defense out of all playoff teams in franchise history .

 

[windward]

How many rushing TDs have they given up over the last 1/2 and last 1/4 of the season?

I'm more curious as to how well that stats correlates to wins and losses. Also how volatile it may be.

 

[Risen Star]

apparently I am tonight on this subject

So you're not a fan of Marinelli or are you saying you think everyone is over rating him

I'm saying you would be hard pressed to find a coordinator in the league that could do less than what he's done here the last two years.

And yes, I considered him the coordinator last year.

But having said that, I would hate to lose him and have to watch another team have terrible defenses and think that could have been us.

 

[yimyammer]

I'm saying you would be hard pressed to find a coordinator in the league that could do less than what he's done here the last two years.

And yes, I considered him the coordinator last year.

But having said that, I would hate to lose him and have to watch another team have terrible defenses and think that could have been us.

duly noted

Do you care who the defensive coordinator is or in your view is defense entirely player dependent? If you do care who the coordinator is, who would you like to have here instead?

 

[percyhoward]

I don't know how finishing 31st in rushing TDs allowed means we have the worst defense out of all playoff teams in franchise history .

All we had to do was have a top 20 defense, and by the best metrics (defensive pass rating - 13th, points per drive - 16th, drive success rate - 24th), we did just that. But finishing 31st in rushing TD allowed means we allowed a lot of drives to reach the red zone, and then gave up a lot of red zone touchdowns. Using my admittedly very simplified metrics (with their high correlation to the team's playoff appearances), that's the worst regular season defense in Cowboys history to make the post season.

Maybe you can think of another regular season defensive performance that was equally as bad in a playoff year, but I can't. That speaks to the level of performance by both the passing and running games in 2014.

 

[jobberone]

He asked how I came up with that. I answered by reading this thread. I fail to see the issue. Was I supposed to ignore that so you two feel better?

No. They are not more talented than I think. Perhaps you hope they are. Percy just illustrated how bad they've been. For two years now. Under Rod Marinelli. Who I pray to God the Cowboys don't lose.

He made an error he quickly corrected. Nothing wrong with being a tad snarky there though since he started it. Not buying the Marinelli stuff though. I've seen too much trolling from you over that. Some snarkiness and wittiness on occasion is funny and entertaining. Constant negativity is boring and frowned upon. That's where you are right now. What you post doesn't affect me personally but does occasional require moderation. At worst you are mildly annoying. Mosty. You are more than capable of contributing here.