Historical Team Rankings

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The red zone rushing TDs are of little surprise. NT play has been what it is and that is where the rubber meets the road with power running. I have my fingers crossed for the beginning of the Brent and Bishop era over the C.

 

[jobberone]

I guess it's fair to call the last two years "bad." I'd call 2013 "terrible," and 2014 "slightly below average, but better than expected." These are the rankings in the three best defensive metrics: points allowed per drive, drive success rate, and defensive pass rating:

2014: 16th, 24th, 13th
2013: 30th, 32nd, 26th

As mentioned in my response to Idgit, the DPR (that last ranking) is somewhat misleading because of all the rushing TD we allowed. Against the pass, we were only a little better in yards per attempt (7.5 this year vs. 7.8 last year), but much better in INT% (3.2 vs. 2.4). So overall pass defense was improved over 2013. But the most important ranking is that first one. 16th in points allowed per drive, compared to 30th last year.

Although it ranked 20th in TD allowed, this defense was very good at not allowing many FG attempts. Our opponents only attempted 18 field goals for the season, which was the league low. IOW, opposing teams either moved the ball all the way into the end zone, or couldn't even get into FG range. Part of the reason we managed to do this was because we forced a lot of takeaways. If you remove all drives ending in takeaways, Dallas ranked 28th in TD allowed per drive. But takeaways don't explain it all. Using that same filter that removes takeaways, the Cowboys still ranked 2nd in FG attempts allowed per drive. That disparity (28th in TD allowed, 2nd in FG allowed) is unusual.

Remove drives with takeaways (19% of all drives), and look at the percentage of all the remaining drives (the other 81%) by the opponent that did not result in points. The 2014 Cowboys ranked 11th, while the 2013 Cowboys ranked 30th. Here's the real reason for the improvement in points allowed, and it's not takeaways: Last year, while the average defense was allowing a FG, we were allowing a TD. This year, while the average defense was allowing a FG, we were either allowing a TD or keeping the opponent out of FG range completely.

That said, according to Football Outsiders, our defense faced the 3rd-easiest schedule of offenses this year. In 2013, it faced the 5th-most difficult schedule. So it would be easy just to assume we gave up a bunch of TD to good offenses and stopped bad offenses cold. But that's not how it actually went down. This defense's best games were against top 10 offenses in points per drive -- the Saints (#3), Seahawks (#9), and Colts (#7). It's about to face the #1 offense in points per drive tomorrow.

Very interesting. I've always said big Ds make plays when they need to. I think we're starting to see that.

 

[percyhoward]

The red zone rushing TDs are of little surprise. NT play has been what it is and that is where the rubber meets the road with power running. I have my fingers crossed for the beginning of the Brent and Bishop era over the C.

These were the defenses that allowed the fewest big plays (20+ yards):
1 Seahawks 39
2 Bills 46
3 Broncos 48
4 Chiefs 49
5 Jets 50
6 Vikings 50
7 Lions 54
8 Packers 55
9 Bengals 55
10 Titans 56
11 Panthers 56
12 Cowboys 57

Removing drives that ended in takeaways, these were the teams with the lowest percentage of drives allowing the opponent inside their 40:
1 Seahawks 35.9%
2 Texans 39.0%
3 Lions 39.1%
4 Colts 39.5%
5 Cardinals 39.7%
6 Broncos 41.1%
7 Bills 41.5%
8 Eagles 41.6%
9 Rams 42.0%
10 Chargers 42.6%
11 Commanders 42.6%
12 Cowboys 42.7%

But, looking at drives that got inside the 40, and again removing drives ending in takeaways, these were the defenses that gave up the most touchdowns as a percentage of those drives :
28 Eagles 53%
29 Commanders 54%
30 Colts 56%
31 49ers 57%
32 Cowboys 59%

This defense led the NFL in takeaways per drive, but only 1 out of every 5 drives it faced resulted in a takeaway. So the real story was what happened on the other 4 out of 5 drives it faced. With regard to keeping teams out of FG range, the defense was playoff caliber, even without the effect of takeaways. It was able to do this largely because it did not give up the big play. The problems began once teams got inside our 40, and as you said, in the red zone.

Percentage of Red Zone Plays ending in 1st down
28 Panthers 33.3%
29 Falcons 33.3%
30 Titans 33.9%
31 Cowboys 37.3%
32 Saints 39.6%

 

[jobberone]

These were the defenses that allowed the fewest big plays (20+ yards):
1 Seahawks 39
2 Bills 46
3 Broncos 48
4 Chiefs 49
5 Jets 50
6 Vikings 50
7 Lions 54
8 Packers 55
9 Bengals 55
10 Titans 56
11 Panthers 56
12 Cowboys 57

Removing drives that ended in takeaways, these were the teams with the lowest percentage of drives allowing the opponent inside their 40:
1 Seahawks 35.9%
2 Texans 39.0%
3 Lions 39.1%
4 Colts 39.5%
5 Cardinals 39.7%
6 Broncos 41.1%
7 Bills 41.5%
8 Eagles 41.6%
9 Rams 42.0%
10 Chargers 42.6%
11 Commanders 42.6%
12 Cowboys 42.7%

But, looking at drives that got inside the 40, and again removing drives ending in takeaways, these were the defenses that gave up the most touchdowns as a percentage of those drives :
28 Eagles 53%
29 Commanders 54%
30 Colts 56%
31 49ers 57%
32 Cowboys 59%

This defense led the NFL in takeaways per drive, but only 1 out of every 5 drives it faced resulted in a takeaway. So the real story was what happened on the other 4 out of 5 drives it faced. With regard to keeping teams out of FG range, the defense was playoff caliber, even without the effect of takeaways. It was able to do this largely because it did not give up the big play. The problems began once teams got inside our 40, and as you said, in the red zone.

Percentage of Red Zone Plays ending in 1st down
28 Panthers 33.3%
29 Falcons 33.3%
30 Titans 33.9%
31 Cowboys 37.3%
32 Saints 39.6%

Not enough pressure and coverage problems including the flats would be my guess.

 

[big dog cowboy]

We can't lose Rod Marinelli.

Agreed.