Who do we keep, cut and sign

[Sandyf]

Based upon various CAP sites Dallas will be challenged next year.

Overthecap.com has Dallas at (-$5,557,036) over the CAP.
Spotac.com has Dallas at (-$1,662,678) over the CAP.
The differential between the (2) sites is the roll over from 2016. Spotrac notes that Dallas has a $6,524,260 roll over from 2016, thereby increasing their 2017 CAP to $174,524,160.

The actual CAP number is likely somewhere between the (2) estimates.

Dallas has additional 2017 CAP liabilities for next year that include $5,500,000 for the draft and $2,500,000 for in-season transactions. Therefore, depending upon the actual CAP numbers Dallas must create anywhere from $9,662,678 - $13,557,036.

What compounds the Cowboys problems is that they have (23) free agents some of whom are key players. It is likely that Dallas will not be able to sign most of their free agents much less sign new players: Justin Durant, Brandon Carr, Darren McFadden, Mark Sanchez, Barry Church, Andrew Gachkar, Josh Thomas, Terrell McClain, Ronaldo McClain, Morris Claiborne, Lance Dunbar, Kellen Moore, Jack Crawford, Ron Leary, JJ Wilcox, Terrance Williams, Brice Butler, Jonathon Cooper, Ryan Davis, Gavin Escobar, James Morris, and David Irving.

The Cowboys can free up $5,100,000 CAP space by trading Tony Romo. However, if Dallas were to obtain draft picks their draft allocation will go up so the net savings would be (+/-) 4,000,000.

Another alternative that Dallas will likely consider is extending the contracts of certain players. 34-year-old Jason Witten is a likely candidate. Frederick is likely an even better option.
Dallas has already renegotiated some key player’s contracts and this policy is risky. It is like buying with a credit card. They are putting off paying the players until future years.

Dallas would have to free up +/- $15,000,000 to be able to sign their free agents and to have some money for other free agents. This will be difficult.

It should be noted that Dallas will be competing for free agents with the other NFL teams, and there are some like Cleveland that have up to $110,000,000 of CAP space. This will not be easy.

Should be noted that if Romo is released or traded after June 1st then the Boys will have $14 million plus to the cap. We will see several contracts restructured so I would expect us to have around $15 to $20 million cap to resign guys and most of the resigns will be structured in a way to lessen the impact.

 

[waldoputty]

Should be noted that if Romo is released or traded after June 1st then the Boys will have $14 million plus to the cap. We will see several contracts restructured so I would expect us to have around $15 to $20 million cap to resign guys and most of the resigns will be structured in a way to lessen the impact.

We have plenty of cap. Restructuring top 5 salaries open up $30M - this was discussed before and we dont even need to cut Romo.

 

[greatwallofdallas]

Cut Jerry Jones

 

[Joe Realist]

Based upon various CAP sites Dallas will be challenged next year.

Overthecap.com has Dallas at (-$5,557,036) over the CAP.
Spotac.com has Dallas at (-$1,662,678) over the CAP.
The differential between the (2) sites is the roll over from 2016. Spotrac notes that Dallas has a $6,524,260 roll over from 2016, thereby increasing their 2017 CAP to $174,524,160.

The actual CAP number is likely somewhere between the (2) estimates.

Dallas has additional 2017 CAP liabilities for next year that include $5,500,000 for the draft and $2,500,000 for in-season transactions. Therefore, depending upon the actual CAP numbers Dallas must create anywhere from $9,662,678 - $13,557,036.

What compounds the Cowboys problems is that they have (23) free agents some of whom are key players. It is likely that Dallas will not be able to sign most of their free agents much less sign new players: Justin Durant, Brandon Carr, Darren McFadden, Mark Sanchez, Barry Church, Andrew Gachkar, Josh Thomas, Terrell McClain, Ronaldo McClain, Morris Claiborne, Lance Dunbar, Kellen Moore, Jack Crawford, Ron Leary, JJ Wilcox, Terrance Williams, Brice Butler, Jonathon Cooper, Ryan Davis, Gavin Escobar, James Morris, and David Irving.

The Cowboys can free up $5,100,000 CAP space by trading Tony Romo. However, if Dallas were to obtain draft picks their draft allocation will go up so the net savings would be (+/-) 4,000,000.

Another alternative that Dallas will likely consider is extending the contracts of certain players. 34-year-old Jason Witten is a likely candidate. Frederick is likely an even better option.
Dallas has already renegotiated some key player’s contracts and this policy is risky. It is like buying with a credit card. They are putting off paying the players until future years.

Dallas would have to free up +/- $15,000,000 to be able to sign their free agents and to have some money for other free agents. This will be difficult.

It should be noted that Dallas will be competing for free agents with the other NFL teams, and there are some like Cleveland that have up to $110,000,000 of CAP space. This will not be easy.

this is why the loss really hurts. Fans that think this will be a 13-3 team again are crazy. Too many moves need to be made, tough decisions. 9-7.

 

[Oh_Canada]

this is why the loss really hurts. Fans that think this will be a 13-3 team again are crazy. Too many moves need to be made, tough decisions. 9-7.

Ok thanks Nostradamus.

 

[Sandyf]

These are the Cowboys free agents : Justin Durant, Brandon Carr, Darren McFadden, Mark Sanchez, Barry Church, Andrew Gachkar, Josh Thomas, Terrell McClain, Ronaldo McClain, Morris Claiborne, Lance Dunbar, Kellen Moore, Jack Crawford, Ron Leary, JJ Wilcox, Terrance Williams, Brice Butler, Jonathon Cooper, Ryan Davis, Gavin Escobar, James Morris, and David Irving.

Irving is a ERFA so he isn't going anywhere.

Justin Durant, Andrew Gachkar, Josh Thomas, Roanaldo McClain, Kellen Moore, Jack Crawford, Ryan Davis, Gavin Escobar, and James Morris will most likely not be offered contracts or not at least until training camp.

Brandon Carr might retire although he could be back on a team friendly contract. Morris Claiborne injury status might get him just a one year deal. Same for Dunbar.

Ron Leary will be the starting OG for another team.

Dallas has to decide between Church and Wilcox although I do believe the starting safeties will be Jones and Frazier.

The coaches likes Butler's upside, might not agree but then I'm not a coach.

Doubt if we see T. Williams back unless a good deal.

Jonathan Cooper resigning will be only if the money is right but I expect it to happen and Collins moved to RT and Free stays as the swing tackle.

Ryan Davis can be resigned for the minimum.

Gavin Esobar will be playing elsewhere next year especially with Witten, Swaim, and Hanna back and the fact that the coaches seem extremely excited about Gathers.

Willie McClay isn't going anywhere and hopefully the draft will reflect just like 2016 draft

Tyrone Crawford will be back like it or not.

Jaylon Smith will be the starting MIKE next year.

Demarcus Lawrence will have another back surgery and will be back.

Tony Romo will be playing for either Houston, Denver, or Chicago after we release him June 2nd.

Darren McFaddin is a 50-50 player to be back. If he is back then we probably trade Morris.

Our needs to be better are a speed WR2, one or two make a difference DEs, CB, and RT. Collins or Green could resolve the RT situation.

Forget spending big in free agency, those days are done and gone whether we like it or not. Look for the guys that go 2nd and 3rd week of free agency.

Wouldn't be surprise if we take a flyer on Josh Gordon once Cleveland releases him. Another guy is Dominic Easley DT Rams would will be a RFA although Rams may not tender him. He would be a good fit. Another WR we could take a look at is Cordelle Patterson if the money is right, he will be a lower tier free agent. Those looking for a big signing, just FORGET it. Not going to happen under Steven and Jason and Willie.

We will continue building through the draft especially on the D side of the ball this year but wouldn't be surprised to see a WR, TE, or OL mixed in the draft either.

 

[beacamdim]

We have plenty of cap. Restructuring top 5 salaries open up $30M - this was discussed before and we dont even need to cut Romo.

You keep saying this, with absolutely no explanation as to how you would accomplish this and how it would make sense.

Are you accounting for the $5MM plus they must create JUST to meet draft obligations? How about the $2MM plus that you must retain for in-season transactions?

Whose contracts are you restructuring? What would the new deals be? To what years would you kick the restructured commitments? Are you sure that you can push it out far enough to open up space yet prevent a catastrophic squeeze when the money becomes due? Have you looked at the out years, considered new deals for Zeke and Dak, and how much will be left then to flesh out the roster when those two alone are pushing $20-30MM against the cap? And how would you pay Martin and Collins when they are up for real money, as well as pay Smith and Frederick fairly without overpaying and/or absorbing a ton of dead money when they are past their prime?

I'm happy to be corrected. I'm happy to review this prior analysis that you keep mentioning -- just please share the link.

But managing the cap is not a year-to-year exercise. This team has to balance winning now with two stars on drastically-undermarket cap hits with ensuring that they still have sufficient cap space to remain competitive during those stars' prime years when their cap hits more than quadruple.

The proof will be in the pudding. If Stephen and Jerry take on big commitments this offseason, then I guess they see the world the way you do. But I'm willing to bet they are a lot more prudent and realistic, and don't hamstring the team in the future by taking on short-sighted obligations that will waste their best assets. They've already done that with Romo.

Please share the link for the prior discussion. I am truly curious to see. Thanks.

 

[waldoputty]

You keep saying this, with absolutely no explanation as to how you would accomplish this and how it would make sense.

Are you accounting for the $5MM plus they must create JUST to meet draft obligations? How about the $2MM plus that you must retain for in-season transactions?

Whose contracts are you restructuring? What would the new deals be? To what years would you kick the restructured commitments? Are you sure that you can push it out far enough to open up space yet prevent a catastrophic squeeze when the money becomes due? Have you looked at the out years, considered new deals for Zeke and Dak, and how much will be left then to flesh out the roster when those two alone are pushing $20-30MM against the cap?

I'm happy to be corrected. I'm happy to review this prior analysis that you keep mentioning -- just please share the link.

But managing the cap is not a year-to-year exercise. This team has to balance winning now with two stars on drastically-undermarket cap hits with ensuring that they still have sufficient cap space to remain competitive during those stars' prime years when their cap hits more than quadruple.

The proof will be in the pudding. If Stephen and Jerry take on big commitments this offseason, then I guess they see the world the way you do. But I'm willing to bet they are a lot more prudent and realistic, and don't hamstring the team in the future by taking on short-sighted obligations that will waste their best assets. They've already done that with Romo.

Please share the link for the prior discussion. I am truly curious to see. Thanks.

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/going-for-the-kill-shot-while-you-are-in-the-window.363542/
@bkight13 is a cap expert who commented there - we just need him to chime in.

 

[beacamdim]

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/going-for-the-kill-shot-while-you-are-in-the-window.363542/
@bkight13 is a cap expert who commented there - we just need him to chime in.

thx.

I don't think this analysis really grapples with, let alone adequately addresses, the questions I've raised. Curious to see what @bkight13 has to add.

 

[waldoputty]

thx.

I don't think this analysis really grapples with, let alone adequately addresses, the questions I've raised. Curious to see what @bkight13 has to add.

No problem.

It shows we can easily free the money.
Then the question is preference.
Do you want a team with 30% chance of winning it all 4 out of 6 years.
Or do you want a team with a 15% chance of winning it all 6 out of 6 years.
Those were roughly the Superbowl odds this year for the Patriots and for the Cowboys.
I choose the latter.

 

[Doomsay]

No need. We did this exercise already. We can keep this going due to the dramatic unprecedent rise in salary cap in the few years as well as large contracts coming off. I am sure the cap gurus will come in some time today and chime in.

We can keep this going for a few years, at which point it will blow up. Nothing wrong with having a down year or 2 every 5-6 years. Gets us the draft picks to reload.

It should be superbowl or bust.

Dude is a Giants troll, pay no heed to him.

 

[beacamdim]

thx

thx.

I don't think this analysis really grapples with, let alone adequately addresses, the questions I've raised. Curious to see what @bkight13 has to add.

One further thought -- all bets are off if Jerry says "Screw it, I want another championship before I die, and don't give a damn what happens after I'm six feet under."

That's the only "window" I see that would change the analysis. Can't see how Stephen et al. would go for it even if Jerry pushed it.

 

[Doomsay]

Garrett - cannot fire while in contention - get him help - just like playcalling was taken away from Garrett, we need to hire 1 (or more) coaches that will gameplan against the cowboys so we stop getting outsmarted. No more stupid Marinelli substitutions when the other QB takes advantage of that. Stop repeating formations that are too predictable (not enough options) that led to the INT.

McClay - raise his salary as much as you need to keep him

Like

 

[beacamdim]

No problem.

It shows we can easily free the money.
Then the question is preference.
Do you want a team with 30% chance of winning it all 4 out of 6 years.
Or do you want a team with a 15% chance of winning it all 6 out of 6 years.
Those were roughly the Superbowl odds this year for the Patriots and for the Cowboys.
I choose the latter.

You can't say it can be done "easily" without running the numbers and answering my questions. That just hasn't been shown. Anyway . . .

Those numbers are grossly inflated -- no way they have a 30% or even a 15% chance of winning the SB at the beginning of all of those seasons. Check out the odds before this season -- New England had the best odds at under 11.1%. Everyone else was less than that. The numbers you posit are just not plausible.

http://www.ibtimes.com/super-bowl-2...ing-odds-ahead-2016-nfl-season-opener-2411540

But we can set their implausibility aside and use your numbers anyway for purpose of this thread.

Well, if you choose the latter scenario (in other words, a hypothetical 15% chance for all 6 years) -- then I agree completely.

First, you'd have to REALLY nail your free agency spending with all that cap room you would hypothetically create to DOUBLE (15% to 30%) your chances of winning. I don't see that as realistic at all. Not even close,

Second, I also would much rather keep the window open longer when even under the ridiculously optimistic scenario you posit I would still have a 70% chance of not winning (vs. 85%) for the first four years, and WELL UNDER 15% of winning the other two. (I also think these choices impact more than 6 years, but I'll leave that be).

So if you really meant the latter choice, I guess we agree that slow and steady is better than an all-in approach that would wreck the cap.

 

[Broges74]

Dez will be 29 next season and will not be here in 3 years. Romos dead money will be gone in two no matter how you slice it. We have a window here where we can keep our core guys and just plug in draft picks at replaceable positions. Plus, the cap is really jumping larely and appears to be a consistent jump.

We are fine and will continue to be fine for the foreseeable future

 

[beacamdim]

Dude is a Giants troll, pay no heed to him.

I'm a Giants fan, yes, but you can't reasonably call me a troll. My wife and stepson are HUGE Dallas fans, and I (often to my chagrin) necessarily am very up on all things Cowboys.

You may not agree with my analysis, but I am offering it ONLY from the perspective of what is best for Dallas in my opinion from a football and cap perspective. I think it is an interesting game, this front office stuff.

If I REALLY were looking only through Giants-colored glasses, I'd be all for Dallas spending like a drunken sailor in FA, restructuring everyone to create every last immediate penny, and watch it all come crashing down when Dak and Zeke come off their rookie deals.

But I truly think that would be idiotic from the Dallas point of view. There are no guarantees. Luck and injuries play a large role in who ultimately wins year to year -- see the 18-0 Patriots or 15-1 Packers as two recent examples near and dear to my heart. EVERY team that wins the SB has benefited from good luck (as an aside, I know everyone here says that the Giants got lucky on the Tyree and Manningham plays -- I disagree, as they were both amazing displays of football skill. Their real luck was when Asante Samuel dropped a sure pick on the last drive in 42, and when Gronkowski trashed his ankle in the AFC Championship game and was therefore a shell of himself and a non-factor in 46). You just can't control the bounces. So if I'm Dallas I'd rather have a real chance for a longer period with Dak/Zeke, than put all my chips on just 3-4 seasons of the 8-10 years they are likely to be around and flourishing, barring the unexpected.

As for the Giants, on the other hand, I think they can rationally defend doing whatever it takes cap wise to rebuild the offensive line even if it means wrecking the cap in a few years. Unlike Dallas, the Giants have no heir apparent at QB, and are almost certainly going to have some dark years after Eli goes. I think Eli's window as an adequate QB (at least -- see Peyton of last year) is 2-3 more years, especially with that defense. So they should go all in, and suck it up. The sun sets on this era in the next few years no matter what, and their window is nothing like Dallas'.

 

[beacamdim]

Dez will be 29 next season and will not be here in 3 years. Romos dead money will be gone in two no matter how you slice it. We have a window here where we can keep our core guys and just plug in draft picks at replaceable positions. Plus, the cap is really jumping larely and appears to be a consistent jump.

We add fine and will continue to be fine for the foreseeable future

Yes -- if I'm Dallas I keep the core, keep drafting well, add Jaylon, and stay competitive without crippling myself financially.

 

[waldoputty]

You can't say it can be done "easily" without running the numbers and answering my questions. That just hasn't been shown. Anyway . . .

Those numbers are grossly inflated -- no way they have a 30% or even a 15% chance of winning the SB at the beginning of all of those seasons. Check out the odds before this season -- New England had the best odds at under 11.1%. Everyone else was less than that. The numbers you posit are just not plausible.

http://www.ibtimes.com/super-bowl-2...ing-odds-ahead-2016-nfl-season-opener-2411540

But we can set their implausibility aside and use your numbers anyway for purpose of this thread.

Well, if you choose the latter scenario (in other words, a hypothetical 15% chance for all 6 years) -- then I agree completely.

First, you'd have to REALLY nail your free agency spending with all that cap room you would hypothetically create to DOUBLE (15% to 30%) your chances of winning. I don't see that as realistic at all. Not even close,

Second, I also would much rather keep the window open longer when even under the ridiculously optimistic scenario you posit I would still have a 70% chance of not winning (vs. 85%) for the first four years, and WELL UNDER 15% of winning the other two. (I also think these choices impact more than 6 years, but I'll leave that be).

So if you really meant the latter choice, I guess we agree that slow and steady is better than an all-in approach that would wreck the cap.

Those are the Vegas odds for the Cowboys and Patriots going into the playoffs.
I did not make them up.
Patriots may be superior over the Cowboys by only 1-2 playmakers.
We get those players and we have our opportunity for our 3rd dynasty, especially with Brady's age.
Lower odds belong to has-been teams like the Giants with their QB in rapid decline.
We almost feel though less fortunate since we were facing that with Romo.

 

[RS12]

Wouldn't be surprise if we take a flyer on Josh Gordon once Cleveland releases him.

Yep he was once a stud but it has been a while.

Gavin Esobar will be playing elsewhere next year especially with Witten, Swaim, and Hanna back and the fact that the coaches seem extremely excited about Gathers.

I think the temptation to take a flier on Jake Butt will be to much to pass up at pick 60.

 

[BoysfanfromCanada]

Does it financially make sense to cut T. Crawford this off season? I know he had a large contract but not a whole lot guaranteed. I like him, but he's always playing hurt which severely limits what he can do.