Percy's Stats on Dak

[xwalker]

@percyhoward posted some some stats in various threads.

I wanted to make certain that everyone sees these stats so I did a cut and paste from some of those posts to this thread.

Prescott's passer rating

In games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks 7
2016
67.6 (3 games)
2017
66.1 (8 games)

In games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016
109.6 (14 games)
2017
112.9 (8 games)

-----
This is 2016-17 passing when pressured in games in which the QB was pressured on less than 40% of his dropbacks. (min 100 att)

Brady 115 212 1708 14 4 95.0
Prescott 85 158 1118 8 1 90.6
Cousins 135 243 1743 10 5 83.4
Mariota 91 190 1176 12 3 82.3
Rodgers 87 194 1215 13 3 81.4
Stafford 128 240 1807 8 5 80.3
Ryan 131 258 1711 8 3 77.5
Keenum 55 109 646 3 1 74.2
Winston 105 212 1211 11 6 72.7
Goff 57 135 849 5 2 69.6
Brees 116 211 1260 2 5 66.1
Manning 124 256 1428 9 7 66.0
Newton 70 148 965 5 5 65.9
Smith 100 211 1210 5 4 65.5
Rthlsbrgr 102 206 1362 7 9 64.0
McCown 50 104 725 3 5 60.8
Bortles 133 272 1504 6 9 59.4
Rivers 70 146 1011 4 8 57.2
Carr 115 231 1434 5 12 55.0
Flacco 114 236 1211 5 9 54.9
Wentz 97 226 1123 7 10 50.4
Siemian 59 153 792 3 7 43.3

-----
Note how the mechanics/accuracy issues don't seem to affect the 600 career attempts in games when he's pressured less than 40% of the time in the game.

Dak
2016 287 of 403 3378 yd 22 td 2 int 112.5
2017 130 of 203 1619 yd 16 td 1 int 112.9
career 417 of 606 (68.8%) 4997 yd (8.2 ypa) 38 td 3 int 112.6

Unless you expect Dak (above) to be considerably better than Brady (below) in these games, you have to conclude that mechanics/accuracy isn't an issue in these games.

Brady
2016 309 of 445 3679 yd 27 td 3 int 111.8
2017 265 of 394 3226 yd 23 td 5 int 106.4
both 574 of 839 (68.4%) 6905 yd (8.2 ypa) 50 td 8 int 109.2

-----
Prescott was Top 5 in % of passing yards that were air yards (yards before catch)
1 Winston 65.1%
2 Wentz 63.9%
3 Wilson 61.8%
4 Prescott 60.6%
5 Brady 59.6%

 

[DFWJC]

Good stuff by Percy.

Remember that what is defined as "pressure" is subjective.

Not saying it helps or hurts Dak, just pointing out that the following is not taken into account:
Hold the ball too long?
Not see open receiver immediately?
Step right into pressure?
Not climb the pocket?
etc

None of that is included. It'd be really hard to determine, granted.

 

[Reality]

Good stuff by Percy.
Remember that what is defined as "pressure" is subjective.

Stop pressuring him .. he's doing his best to post the stats

 

[Bleu Star]

@percyhoward posted some some stats in various threads.

I wanted to make certain that everyone sees these stats so I did a cut and paste from some of those posts to this thread.

Prescott's passer rating

In games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks 7
2016
67.6 (3 games)
2017
66.1 (8 games)

In games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016
109.6 (14 games)
2017
112.9 (8 games)

-----
This is 2016-17 passing when pressured in games in which the QB was pressured on less than 40% of his dropbacks. (min 100 att)

Brady 115 212 1708 14 4 95.0
Prescott 85 158 1118 8 1 90.6
Cousins 135 243 1743 10 5 83.4
Mariota 91 190 1176 12 3 82.3
Rodgers 87 194 1215 13 3 81.4
Stafford 128 240 1807 8 5 80.3
Ryan 131 258 1711 8 3 77.5
Keenum 55 109 646 3 1 74.2
Winston 105 212 1211 11 6 72.7
Goff 57 135 849 5 2 69.6
Brees 116 211 1260 2 5 66.1
Manning 124 256 1428 9 7 66.0
Newton 70 148 965 5 5 65.9
Smith 100 211 1210 5 4 65.5
Rthlsbrgr 102 206 1362 7 9 64.0
McCown 50 104 725 3 5 60.8
Bortles 133 272 1504 6 9 59.4
Rivers 70 146 1011 4 8 57.2
Carr 115 231 1434 5 12 55.0
Flacco 114 236 1211 5 9 54.9
Wentz 97 226 1123 7 10 50.4
Siemian 59 153 792 3 7 43.3

-----
Note how the mechanics/accuracy issues don't seem to affect the 600 career attempts in games when he's pressured less than 40% of the time in the game.

Dak
2016 287 of 403 3378 yd 22 td 2 int 112.5
2017 130 of 203 1619 yd 16 td 1 int 112.9
career 417 of 606 (68.8%) 4997 yd (8.2 ypa) 38 td 3 int 112.6

Unless you expect Dak (above) to be considerably better than Brady (below) in these games, you have to conclude that mechanics/accuracy isn't an issue in these games.

Brady
2016 309 of 445 3679 yd 27 td 3 int 111.8
2017 265 of 394 3226 yd 23 td 5 int 106.4
both 574 of 839 (68.4%) 6905 yd (8.2 ypa) 50 td 8 int 109.2

-----
Prescott was Top 5 in % of passing yards that were air yards (yards before catch)
1 Winston 65.1%
2 Wentz 63.9%
3 Wilson 61.8%
4 Prescott 60.6%
5 Brady 59.6%

You're preaching to the choir bro. Great summary and analogy but (sadly) some will still consider it "fake news".

 

[Direwolf63]

The problem is when he is pressured >40% of the time.

Then Dak becomes a far below average QB. He hears footsteps even when they aren't there. The QB differential from when he is pressured <40% and >40% of the time is greater than almost every QB in the league.

 

[TwoDeep3]

And what of that percentage causes Dak to release early or late and completely throw off target?

 

[xwalker]

The problem is when he is pressured >40% of the time.

Then Dak becomes a far below average QB. He hears footsteps even when they aren't there. The QB differential from when he is pressured <40% and >40% of the time is greater than almost every QB in the league.

Agree.

The point is that his mechanics/accuracy are good in the less 40% games.

That indicates dealing with pressure not a lack of accuracy overall is what he needs to improve.

It also indicates that getting a high quality backup OT should be a top priority.

 

[conner01]

Dak needs to improve handling pressure
The staff needs to do a better job of keeping him from being pressured
The receivers need to do a better job of getting open so he has an outlet

 

[xwalker]

The problem is when he is pressured >40% of the time.

Then Dak becomes a far below average QB. He hears footsteps even when they aren't there. The QB differential from when he is pressured <40% and >40% of the time is greater than almost every QB in the league.

Reference a couple of specific plays where he was off target and we can discuss specifics and I don't mean low percentage deep throws.

 

[DFWJC]

I've never really been a Dak detractor, but wouldn't it be at least as important to see stats on how a player performs under pressure?
I mean, I wouldn't mainly measure a hitter in baseball by if he can hit a fast ball down the middle

 

[Bleu Star]

It also indicates that getting a high quality backup OT should be a top priority.

That makes too much sense. Let's keep Chaz Green, bump his pay up a bit, train him up, and start him at LT in 2018.

Aka the Jerry way.

 

[xwalker]

I've never really been a Dak detractor, but wouldn't it be at least as important to see stats on how a player performs under pressure?
I mean, I wouldn't mainly measure a hitter in baseball by if he can hit a fast ball down the middle

The point is that people claim that he does not have the ability to be accurate (mechanics, arm strength, etc.) which is false.

He can work on getting better at dealing with pressure and the coaches "should" be able to help this within the scheme.

Changing the 85% pass when in shotgun and 85% run when under center would be a good place to start.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Other than finding Dak’s particular magic number to shoot for in trying to keep pressure down (good luck with that) this is basically just unintelligible gobbledygook. I can’t think of anything useful that can be derived from it that isn’t already obvious.

 

[CowboyRoy]

@percyhoward posted some some stats in various threads.

I wanted to make certain that everyone sees these stats so I did a cut and paste from some of those posts to this thread.

Prescott's passer rating

In games when pressured on ≥ 40% of dropbacks 7
2016
67.6 (3 games)
2017
66.1 (8 games)

In games when pressured on < 40% of dropbacks
2016
109.6 (14 games)
2017
112.9 (8 games)

-----
This is 2016-17 passing when pressured in games in which the QB was pressured on less than 40% of his dropbacks. (min 100 att)

Brady 115 212 1708 14 4 95.0
Prescott 85 158 1118 8 1 90.6
Cousins 135 243 1743 10 5 83.4
Mariota 91 190 1176 12 3 82.3
Rodgers 87 194 1215 13 3 81.4
Stafford 128 240 1807 8 5 80.3
Ryan 131 258 1711 8 3 77.5
Keenum 55 109 646 3 1 74.2
Winston 105 212 1211 11 6 72.7
Goff 57 135 849 5 2 69.6
Brees 116 211 1260 2 5 66.1
Manning 124 256 1428 9 7 66.0
Newton 70 148 965 5 5 65.9
Smith 100 211 1210 5 4 65.5
Rthlsbrgr 102 206 1362 7 9 64.0
McCown 50 104 725 3 5 60.8
Bortles 133 272 1504 6 9 59.4
Rivers 70 146 1011 4 8 57.2
Carr 115 231 1434 5 12 55.0
Flacco 114 236 1211 5 9 54.9
Wentz 97 226 1123 7 10 50.4
Siemian 59 153 792 3 7 43.3

-----
Note how the mechanics/accuracy issues don't seem to affect the 600 career attempts in games when he's pressured less than 40% of the time in the game.

Dak
2016 287 of 403 3378 yd 22 td 2 int 112.5
2017 130 of 203 1619 yd 16 td 1 int 112.9
career 417 of 606 (68.8%) 4997 yd (8.2 ypa) 38 td 3 int 112.6

Unless you expect Dak (above) to be considerably better than Brady (below) in these games, you have to conclude that mechanics/accuracy isn't an issue in these games.

Brady
2016 309 of 445 3679 yd 27 td 3 int 111.8
2017 265 of 394 3226 yd 23 td 5 int 106.4
both 574 of 839 (68.4%) 6905 yd (8.2 ypa) 50 td 8 int 109.2

-----
Prescott was Top 5 in % of passing yards that were air yards (yards before catch)
1 Winston 65.1%
2 Wentz 63.9%
3 Wilson 61.8%
4 Prescott 60.6%
5 Brady 59.6%

You cant talk sense into the Dak haters. They have been waiting in the weeds for a bad stretch from Dak just to let loose on him. Reasoning is not a part of their agenda. They hated Dak from the start and always will. Ironically, the same people that defended Romo are now tearing apart Dak. Personally, I put the hard corp Dak haters on ignore. And I dont put many people on ignore.

 

[Kevinicus]

Plenty of us have noted, going all the way back to last year, mechanics and accuracy issues in games where he had a good passer rating. Those things show up in every game, not just when his numbers are bad.

 

[John813]

Thanks for lumping all the stats into one place @xwalker

Good stuff by Percy.

Remember that what is defined as "pressure" is subjective.

Not saying it helps or hurts Dak, just pointing out that the following is not taken into account:
Hold the ball too long?
Not see open receiver immediately?
Step right into pressure?
Not climb the pocket?
etc

None of that is included. It'd be really hard to determine, granted.

Curious on this too. How is pressure defined? Is a pass play considered pressured if Dak holds onto the ball for 3-5+ seconds scanning the field and someone finally breaks free? Is there a time frame to be considered pressured, or is it simply when the QB has to move in the pocket/scramble/throw on the run?

 

[jterrell]

The pressure effecting him so much is likely a component of the offense.
As is the insane success factor when not pressured much.

It is after all a timing based offense.
When he has time and the play has time, it kills.
When he has to rush the throw and the play doesn't have time he is pretty awful as you'd expect.

I don't think Dak or the offense changed much at all form 2016 to 2017.
What did change was the health of the OL and especially Tyron Smith.

 

[Staubacher]

Dak was badly missing wide open receivers against backup Eagles defense.

I don't need stats to tell me what my eyes see.

 

[percyhoward]

Good stuff by Percy.

Remember that what is defined as "pressure" is subjective.

Not saying it helps or hurts Dak, just pointing out that the following is not taken into account:
Hold the ball too long?
Not see open receiver immediately?
Step right into pressure?
Not climb the pocket?
etc

None of that is included. It'd be really hard to determine, granted.

It would be, without knowing time in the pocket for each pressure. But we do know time in the pocket for all dropbacks, and that doesn't increase in the games when pressures amount to at least 40% of dropbacks.

We know that he was pressured more quickly this year, and (presumably as a result) did not hold the ball as long as he did last year.

Time to throw
2016 2.89 (4th)
2017 2.81 (8th)

Time to scramble
2016 5.10 (12th)
2017 4.89 (22nd)

Time to sack
2016 3.83 (4th)
2017 3.14 (27th)

In games when he was pressured 40% of the time or more, his time before the throw averaged 2.80 seconds. In the other games, an almost identical 2.82 seconds. This tells us that a) the extra pressures weren't a result of holding the ball longer and/or b) if they were, then he must have been getting rid of it a lot quicker on the non-pressured attempts, or else there would have been even more pressures.

His average time from snap to sack was 3.25 when pressured often in the game, and 3.17 when not (so not even a 10th of a second's difference). There was a difference of a full second between snap and scramble: 5.38 when pressured often, 4.41 in the low-pressure games.

He was sacked 6 times in the 8 low-pressure games (once per 42.5 dropbacks), 26 times in the 8 games when pressured often (once per 11.5 dropbacks). But in the low-pressure games he had 124 dropbacks with 2.5 seconds or less in the pocket, and 130 dropbacks with more than 2.5 seconds in the pocket. In the games when pressured often, he had 149 dropbacks of each duration.

Here are the QB with the most "quick sacks" in 2017.
Time to sack 2.5 seconds or less
1 Brady 10 sacks
2 Cousins 10 sacks
3 Dalton 10 sacks
4 Prescott 9 sacks
5 Stafford 9 sacks

And the QB with the most sacks after holding the ball longer.
Time to sack > 2.5 seconds
1 Brissett 47 sacks
2 Taylor 41 sacks
3 Stafford 37 sacks
4 Wilson 37 sacks
5 McCown 34 sacks

17 Prescott 23 sacks

Most of the 8 high-pressure games were those four games with a starting OL out, and from the first 4 weeks of the season, when the OL was still coming together as a unit. That's why I attribute the increase in pressures more to OL issues and pass rushes faced, rather than indecisiveness/bad reads/poor pocket presence on Dak's part. If those things were the real issue causing the pressures, they'd likely be an issue in every game, and you'd see a similar significant effect on his passer rating. But we don't see that. Dak's passer rating was 55.5 when either Smith or Martin missed most or all of the game, 97.0 when they played.

 

[mahoneybill]

It would be, without knowing time in the pocket for each pressure. But we do know time in the pocket for all dropbacks, and that doesn't increase in the games when pressures amount to at least 40% of dropbacks.

We know that he was pressured more quickly this year, and (presumably as a result) did not hold the ball as long as he did last year.

Time to throw
2016 2.89 (4th)
2017 2.81 (8th)

Time to scramble
2016 5.10 (12th)
2017 4.89 (22nd)

Time to sack
2016 3.83 (4th)
2017 3.14 (27th)

In games when he was pressured 40% of the time or more, his time before the throw averaged 2.80 seconds. In the other games, an almost identical 2.82 seconds. This tells us that a) the extra pressures weren't a result of holding the ball longer and/or b) if they were, then he must have been getting rid of it a lot quicker on the non-pressured attempts, or else there would have been even more pressures.

His average time from snap to sack was 3.25 when pressured often in the game, and 3.17 when not (so not even a 10th of a second's difference). There was a difference of a full second between snap and scramble: 5.38 when pressured often, 4.41 in the low-pressure games.

He was sacked 6 times in the 8 low-pressure games (once per 42.5 dropbacks), 26 times in the 8 games when pressured often (once per 11.5 dropbacks). But in the low-pressure games he had 124 dropbacks with 2.5 seconds or less in the pocket, and 130 dropbacks with more than 2.5 seconds in the pocket. In the games when pressured often, he had 149 dropbacks of each duration.

Here are the QB with the most "quick sacks" in 2017.
Time to sack 2.5 seconds or less
1 Brady 10 sacks
2 Cousins 10 sacks
3 Dalton 10 sacks
4 Prescott 9 sacks
5 Stafford 9 sacks

And the QB with the most sacks after holding the ball longer.
Time to sack > 2.5 seconds
1 Brissett 47 sacks
2 Taylor 41 sacks
3 Stafford 37 sacks
4 Wilson 37 sacks
5 McCown 34 sacks

17 Prescott 23 sacks

Most of the 8 high-pressure games were those four games with a starting OL out, and from the first 4 weeks of the season, when the OL was still coming together as a unit. That's why I attribute the increase in pressures more to OL issues and pass rushes faced, rather than indecisiveness/bad reads/poor pocket presence on Dak's part. If those things were the real issue causing the pressures, they'd likely be an issue in every game, and you'd see a similar significant effect on his passer rating. But we don't see that. Dak's passer rating was 55.5 when either Smith or Martin missed most or all of the game, 97.0 when they played.

Thanks for taking the time to do all of this, greatly appreciated. Even Aikman looked ordinary his first year, reference 11 sack game by Eagles, to the point that Jimmy J drafted Steve Walsh as a potential replacement.

Quick hitting routes, legal picks, rubs, those will help compared to our routes that at least to me most opposing DB's know exactly where the ball is headed resulting in tight coverages..