Percy's Stats on Dak

percyhoward

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Do defensive coordinators play back against rookies and attack 2nd year quarterbacks?
"Attack" suggests more blitzing, but Dak saw fewer blitzes this year, mainly because he's been so good against the blitz. So yes, most of the pressure has come from four guys, and most of it when the OL hadn't yet gelled or wasn't at full strength.
 

Kevinicus

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first 25 games
65.7comp 5481yrds 39tds 8int 103.89rating 8rush td

When have his numbers been bad?

When he hasnt had a rb who can change the game? Who the defense has to play honest?
When the best OL in the NFL has a bad back and groin?
When said OL is hurt and his backup cant block?
Elliot suspension injured OL
62.6PCT comp 1506yrds 6tds 9int 22sacks 74.9rating 2rush td

If you want to say the coaches did this kid no justice but not changing 1 thing when all these things were happening to your offense i can believe you. But if youre not going to recognize the situation his coaches put him in, and dismiss the great stats he had in his first 25 games. Then youre argument is one sided and is only showing how biased you are against Dak.

I think you need to reread what I said, and recall we are looking at individual game stats.
 

Kevinicus

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So you are claiming that a bad QB has a great QB rating and great stats.

You are also one of the leaders of the "Dez is still awesome" fan club otherwise known as the Dez Boiz.

I am saying a QB can have glaring issues and even not perform well in a game and the passer rating won't reflect it.

Tell us again about the team not allowing pre-snap reads.

And where did I say Dez is awesome?
 

percyhoward

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Other than finding Dak’s particular magic number to shoot for in trying to keep pressure down (good luck with that) this is basically just unintelligible gobbledygook. I can’t think of anything useful that can be derived from it that isn’t already obvious.
Evidently, that "magic" number would be under 40%, which NFL teams do 70% of the time.

The utility of finding patterns in data is that it helps teams identify (rest assured teams practice this "gobbledygook" and in much more depth), and fans understand causes of success and failure.
 

conner01

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The point is that people claim that he does not have the ability to be accurate (mechanics, arm strength, etc.) which is false.

He can work on getting better at dealing with pressure and the coaches "should" be able to help this within the scheme.

Changing the 85% pass when in shotgun and 85% run when under center would be a good place to start.
That’s a bit too predictable
I think he has some mechanics to work on. And learning to read defenses is a long process. Tony was better after a few years than early own and he got plenty of time to learn before he hit the field
I think Dak has the mindset to get better but the staff needs to do their part to help him
If they are keeping dez then he needs to be used in a way that fits dak’s strengths
But on the predictable part, that’s a huge reason he had so many snaps under pressure. The oline struggled but when you are so predictable it gives the defense a huge advantage over the linemen and forced your QB to play under pressure more
 

conner01

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It would be, without knowing time in the pocket for each pressure. But we do know time in the pocket for all dropbacks, and that doesn't increase in the games when pressures amount to at least 40% of dropbacks.

We know that he was pressured more quickly this year, and (presumably as a result) did not hold the ball as long as he did last year.

Time to throw
2016 2.89 (4th)
2017 2.81 (8th)

Time to scramble
2016 5.10 (12th)
2017 4.89 (22nd)

Time to sack
2016 3.83 (4th)
2017 3.14 (27th)

In games when he was pressured 40% of the time or more, his time before the throw averaged 2.80 seconds. In the other games, an almost identical 2.82 seconds. This tells us that a) the extra pressures weren't a result of holding the ball longer and/or b) if they were, then he must have been getting rid of it a lot quicker on the non-pressured attempts, or else there would have been even more pressures.

His average time from snap to sack was 3.25 when pressured often in the game, and 3.17 when not (so not even a 10th of a second's difference). There was a difference of a full second between snap and scramble: 5.38 when pressured often, 4.41 in the low-pressure games.

He was sacked 6 times in the 8 low-pressure games (once per 42.5 dropbacks), 26 times in the 8 games when pressured often (once per 11.5 dropbacks). But in the low-pressure games he had 124 dropbacks with 2.5 seconds or less in the pocket, and 130 dropbacks with more than 2.5 seconds in the pocket. In the games when pressured often, he had 149 dropbacks of each duration.

Here are the QB with the most "quick sacks" in 2017.
Time to sack 2.5 seconds or less
1 Brady 10 sacks
2 Cousins 10 sacks
3 Dalton 10 sacks
4 Prescott 9 sacks
5 Stafford 9 sacks

And the QB with the most sacks after holding the ball longer.
Time to sack > 2.5 seconds
1 Brissett 47 sacks
2 Taylor 41 sacks
3 Stafford 37 sacks
4 Wilson 37 sacks
5 McCown 34 sacks

17 Prescott 23 sacks

Most of the 8 high-pressure games were those four games with a starting OL out, and from the first 4 weeks of the season, when the OL was still coming together as a unit. That's why I attribute the increase in pressures more to OL issues and pass rushes faced, rather than indecisiveness/bad reads/poor pocket presence on Dak's part. If those things were the real issue causing the pressures, they'd likely be an issue in every game, and you'd see a similar significant effect on his passer rating. But we don't see that. Dak's passer rating was 55.5 when either Smith or Martin missed most or all of the game, 97.0 when they played.
Very interesting stuff. Thanks for the hard work
 

Silver N Blue

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Or look at the Saints this year. It's all short stuff and highly dependent on YAC, and Brees has been practically untouchable.
True but the saints changed their approach late last year and stuck with it with a ground and pound short passing game approach. I see your point though.
 

TwoDeep3

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TD, those things have little to no effect on his overall passing performance in the other games (when he's pressured on less than 40% of his dropbacks). So unless you expect near perfection, you have to conclude that he isn't doing nearly as many of those things in the under 40% pressure games.

I expect him to start hitting the receiver and not just get close.
 

percyhoward

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The problem is when he is pressured >40% of the time.

Then Dak becomes a far below average QB. He hears footsteps even when they aren't there. The QB differential from when he is pressured <40% and >40% of the time is greater than almost every QB in the league.
To show the unique case that is Dak, here's one I hadn't posted yet, partially because it was so much work that I didn't get as many QB sampled as I wanted before I got sick of it, but also because I can't figure out a good way to describe what you're looking at. The idea was to find out how an excess of pressures in a game affects a QB's attempts when not pressured in that same game, and then to compare that to how a normal number of pressures in a game affects his attempts when pressured in that same game.

This is when pressured in games when total pressures were less than 40% of dropbacks

vs.

when not pressured in games when total pressures equaled or exceeded 40% of dropbacks.

2016-17
Brady 115 212 1708 14 4 95.0
128 170 1418 11 2 116.2
diff +21.2
Prescott 85 158 1118 8 1 90.6
128 197 1225 8 10 74.5
diff -16.1
Cousins 135 243 1743 10 5 83.4
98 127 1112 7 2 114.6
diff +31.2
Rodgers 87 194 1215 13 3 81.4
57 82 567 5 1 104.0
diff +22.6
Stafford 128 240 1807 8 5 80.3
107 154 1095 5 0 100.4
diff +20.1
Ryan 131 258 1711 8 3 77.5
63 94 862 6 3 104.1
diff +26.6
Keenum 55 109 646 3 1 74.2
153 218 1622 10 6 95.4
diff +21.2
Winston 105 212 1211 11 6 72.7
103 151 1273 7 2 103.9
diff +31.2
Goff 57 135 849 5 2 69.6
87 128 907 4 4 85.6
diff +16.0
Manning 124 256 1428 9 7 66.0
47 73 454 2 1 85.1
diff +19.1
Newton 70 148 965 5 5 65.9
111 187 1259 5 4 79.6
diff +13.7
Smith 100 211 1210 5 4 65.5
43 68 489 2 0 94.5
diff +29.0
Rthlsbrgr 102 206 1362 7 9 64.0
58 82 766 7 0 128.4
diff +64.4
McCown 50 104 725 3 5 60.8
86 139 969 5 3 85.7
diff +24.9
Bortles 133 272 1504 6 9 59.4
59 91 626 4 3 85.7
diff +26.3
Rivers 70 146 1011 4 8 57.2
215 322 2655 20 9 101.0
diff +43.8
Flacco 114 236 1211 5 9 54.9
75 111 660 3 3 80.9
diff +26.0
Wentz 97 226 1123 7 10 50.4
60 82 715 4 2 105.4
diff +55.0
Siemian 59 153 792 3 7 43.3
111 161 1320 4 4 91.6
diff +48.3

The first line: These players are ranked by their passer rating under pressure in games when pressures amounted to less than 40% of total dropbacks. That's 70% of games in the NFL over the last two years. That's why in most cases, the player has more attempts in the sub-40% pressure games. There are simply many more of these games. Most of these QB have had more of these "normal" (sub-40% pressure) games than Prescott. Rivers, Keenum and some others have had fewer such games, but they haven't been nearly as good as Dak when pressured in these games.

The second line: Non-pressured attempts in games when 40% or more of their dropbacks were pressured. That's 30% of games in the NFL over the last two years.

The third line: The differential in passer rating in the two sets of games. To be able to get a meaningful differential, there can't be a huge disparity in the number of attempts between each player's two samples. Accordingly I didn't include QB that had less than 50 attempts in either of their samples. Brees, Carr, and Mariota are left out because they didn't have enough games when they were pressured on as many as 40% of their dropbacks to have at least 50 non-pressured attempts from those games.

Note that, even in games when they're pressured an inordinate amount of times, these QB are much better when not pressured on the throw. Very basically, it's "normal" to be better when you're not pressured on the play, regardless of all the pressure you're under in the rest of the game. The average is 30 rating points better, and in fact, all of them are at least 13 points better when not pressured on the throw except Prescott, who's 16 points worse. He has the lowest rating of all these QB when not pressured in a high-pressure game, and the 2nd highest (behind Brady) when pressured in a normal (sub-40%) game.
 
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Thanks Percy. Truly remarkable numbers.

Seems to me that Dak's issues are more mental than physical. He is rattled when pressured. Rattled to the point that he can't produce even when he isn't pressured in high pressured games. The alarm in his head goes off too soon.
 

TrailBlazer

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A bunch of numbers on a page to tell you what is already obvious to anyone watching games. Dak is better when he's not being pressured.
 

Gaede

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The numbers confirm what we all saw. When pressured, Dak played poorly. If we want to do better, Dak is going to have to learn to deal with pressure better. He may be able to or he may not. Being his second year, it’s too early to tell.

Wonder how much missing Zeke affected the pressure. He is one of the best pass blocking rbs I’ve ever seen
 

percyhoward

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The numbers confirm what we all saw. When pressured, Dak played poorly. If we want to do better, Dak is going to have to learn to deal with pressure better. He may be able to or he may not. Being his second year, it’s too early to tell.

Wonder how much missing Zeke affected the pressure. He is one of the best pass blocking rbs I’ve ever seen
In 2017 alone, Dak has a 94.6 rating on pressured attempts in the <40% pressure games, and a 74.0 rating from a clean pocket in the ≥ 40% pressure games. That leads me to believe he's very good under pressure when he's pressured a normal amount of times in the game, but when the pressures accumulate within a game to the point where they amount to more pressures than the average QB sees 70% of the time, the perception or anticipation of these pressures becomes a major problem that affects even his non-pressured attempts.

That's a good point about Zeke's pass blocking in general, although blitz pickup was a huge issue in his first game back.
 

John813

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After next year Daks going to be pressured to find another job.

Derek Anderson was still in the league this past year. Even if Dak were to struggle again, he could easily bounce around as a backup/some team trying to "recreate" his rookie year.
 

whynot

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Dak needs to have the DL chase him around all off season.

If Dak gets up to grab a beer, Taco needs to jump out from behind the fridge door.
If he’s in the car heading to the shops, Irving should be tailgating him in an F450.
Dak gets tired and goes to bed, there’s DLaw waiting under the covers.

Gotta get used to the pressure.
 

LOBO7

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Safeties do not respect his ability to throw the long ball
which mans they come up making it harder to run and
hit those middle seams Witten made a carrier out of.
Of course you need time to throw the long pass or have a
staff that can design plays for him to get outside to create time.

Dak is a hard worker, he can throw a better deep pass, I hope.
 
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