Article on how predictable Cowboys were on offense

[Risen Star]

I'm not a big complex scheme guy. I think execution through talent is what makes it work.

That's certainly the way to go with this offense. Beef up that offensive line, put the world's greatest RB behind it and be the most predictable offense in the league. He's getting it. Try and stop it. All game long.

 

[Risen Star]

I was referring more to the D which I think people never gave enough credit to for the Super Bowls.

That DL alone would be hard to duplicate.

Wait, the Eagles seem to be doing that.

I can't argue there. No way can you have the overall talent on both sides of the ball as that team had. The depth was ridiculous on defense.

 

[Rockport]

This is definitely a make or break year coming up for Garrett. Not making the playoffs is not going to cut it again. Can he do it? I dunno.. But he better.

 

[percyhoward]

with overwhelming talent afforded by offense spending 70%? of the cap - offense is great.
without the overwhelming talent - not so good.

Maybe we just weren't as predictable in those 11 games.

 

[WillieBeamen]

The usual apologists are at it again


Let’s ignore that the offense has struggled the past two seasons against the better teams (defenses), due to said predictability.

There has been evidence for years that this scheme has caused us issues in various games, but some fans refuse to accept the truth

 

[3rd_n_inches]

“When the opponent expand, I contract. When he contracts, I expand. And, when there is an opportunity, I do not hit - it hits all by itself.” -Bruce Lee

 

[GORICO]

players complained about how predictable the offense was. this article did a nice job of quantifying how predictable there were:
http://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/201...revealing-stat-tendencies-of-cowboys-offense/

Some highlights which the articles went into depth:
2) Inside the opponent’s 35-yard line with 2+ tight ends attached to the formation, Dallas ran the rock 88.9 percent of the time.
3) Inside the opponent’s 35-yard line, the Cowboys ran 100% of the time when in a straight I or offset I-formation.
6) With less than three minutes remaining in a half, the Cowboys ran 100% of the time when using multiple tight ends or multiple running backs.
7) Dallas passed 74.8% of the time when there was a bunch, stack, or couple as part of the formation.

mr Waldo----you know there are some articles by just reading the headline it makes me go crazy and this is one of them....i was so furious in mid-season during the worst 3 game stretch in cowboy history...at our total lack of competence in what seemed all areas...managing, coaching and playing....and when a defense can basically call out your plays and you still dont change then people need to be fired ...and not the lower coaches that were only following orders.....i dont think cowboys have any real desire to be do what it takes to win consistently....i need a life...this over the top cowboy fan mentality i have is interferring with other things in life...and it always has and i dont change it...i am a cowboy freak...i guess i must accept it

 

[texbumthelife]

I don't think anyone is arguing that we tended to run out of a 2 tight end set inside the opponents 35. The numbers are what the numbers are. What we can't do is draw conclusions about how successful those plays were on an individual basis. The data isn't provided in the OP.

But given that we were a successful offense overall....i'd bet many of those plays worked out just find.

And no the offense didn't really jsut get worse as the season went on in some linear fashion as you suggested.

we had an awful 3 game stretch. We then averaged 30 points per game from Nov 30th through Dec 2017. Was that representative of an offense on step decline as the season wore on?

As always, you're entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

And as always, stats don't tell the whole story. Something you yourself have said.

By all means, continue to be content with a literally 40+ year old offense, but I expect more creativity and differentiation as a fan.

 

[waldoputty]

Maybe we just weren't as predictable in those 11 games.

it is hard to be less predictable in the first 11 games when the stats say we rush or pass out of certain formations 100% of the time.

 

[waldoputty]

mr Waldo----you know there are some articles by just reading the headline it makes me go crazy and this is one of them....i was so furious in mid-season during the worst 3 game stretch in cowboy history...at our total lack of competence in what seemed all areas...managing, coaching and playing....and when a defense can basically call out your plays and you still dont change then people need to be fired ...and not the lower coaches that were only following orders.....i dont think cowboys have any real desire to be do what it takes to win consistently....i need a life...this over the top cowboy fan mentality i have is interferring with other things in life...and it always has and i dont change it...i am a cowboy freak...i guess i must accept it

Mr. Gorico, pray for the end of Garrett and his reign of terror.
unfortunately his best skill is ***-kissing

 

[GORICO]

Mr. Gorico, pray for the end of Garrett and his reign of terror.
unfortunately his best skill is ***-kissing

mr Waldo--- Garrett totaly chaps my behind to no end....i was angry that we might have to wait years until he learns to coach...but its been 8 years and he is worse than ever....and i agree..it is terrrorizing to us fans

 

[waldoputty]

mr Waldo--- Garrett totaly chaps my behind to no end....i was angry that we might have to wait years until he learns to coach...but its been 8 years and he is worse than ever....and i agree..it is terrrorizing to us fans

Mr. Gorico, were you on the board when we had the vote on hiring or firing garrett last year?

 

[GMO415]

Don't need an article when you witness it first hand.

 

[jday]

Switzer is a rookie transitioning to a pro WR which is among the hardest transitions in football for a rookie. Besides that he was taking on return duties and had a very productive vet in front of him. Pointing to his lack of production or his lack of usage in a run heavy offense seems....weird.

If that's what you got from what I just wrote, this looks like a great part of the conversation to take an exit...

Good day to you, sir!

 

[waldoputty]

Don't need an article when you witness it first hand.

we know it, but the statistics for multiple situations of 100% is unbelievable

 

[waldoputty]

If that's what you got from what I just wrote, this looks like a great part of the conversation to take an exit...

Good day to you, sir!

 

[percyhoward]

it is hard to be less predictable in the first 11 games when the stats say we rush or pass out of certain formations 100% of the time.

I should have made my sarcasm more obvious.

The article suggests that scoring went down because we were too predictable in 2017. It offers almost no evidence of this by showing the results of these "predictable" plays. For example, it doesn't compare the results of plays when we followed our tendencies with the results of plays that didn't follow those tendencies. It doesn't compare the results of the predictable plays in the first half of a game (or the season) with the second half. That's how I'd go about proving that our predictability caused the drop in scoring.

In the 11 games played by all 5 starting OL in 2017, we scored more points on the average drive (2.70) than we did in 2016 (2.54).

 

[GORICO]

Mr. Gorico, were you on the board when we had the vote on hiring or firing garrett last year?

mr Waldo--no sir i was not....i did not care if he got coach of the year..it was baseless to me...it all fell into his lap anyway..i wouild have fired him if i had a chance too

 

[waldoputty]

I should have made my sarcasm more obvious.

The article suggests that scoring went down because we were too predictable in 2017. It offers almost no evidence of this by showing the results of these "predictable" plays. For example, it doesn't compare the results of plays when we followed our tendencies with the results of plays that didn't follow those tendencies. It doesn't compare the results of the predictable plays in the first half of a game (or the season) with the second half. That's how I'd go about proving that our predictability caused the drop in scoring.

In the 11 games played by all 5 starting OL in 2017, we scored more points on the average drive (2.70) than we did in 2016 (2.54).

regarding your particular point, i tend to think the cowboys scheme is so well known that the defense knew what to do with the 1st play in the 1st game of the year.

In my 1st class in stats, the professor taught us how stats can be manipulated.
sure, one can defend a position by asking the other side to provide undeniable statistical proof that is hard to come by.

at a certain point, it becomes common sense.
we ask ourselves, if adrian clayborn knows whether it is a pass or rush, do you think green is better off or worse off. if it is not clayborn, how about some of the top pass rushers. or do you want the defense to know before hand whether it is pass or rush - so there is less of the field to defend?

 

[percyhoward]

One can defend a position by asking the other side to provide undeniable statistical proof that is hard to come by.

The article does a great job of finding some tendencies, but doesn't even attempt to show any proof that predictability affected scoring.