Article on how predictable Cowboys were on offense

[TWOK11]

Predictability isn't an issue if you're really good at what you do. We didn't execute nearly as well in 2017 as we did in 2016.

 

[jday]

it makes the world go around!

this evidence, by itself, should be a termination offense.
it shows utter incompetence, lackadaisical attitude, inability to delegate, or any combination of these offenses.
it also show coaches who feel entitled and who are completely safe in their jobs.
it shows garrett is more focused in ***-kissing than anything performance related matter.

To be honest, I'm not sure if it clearly shows anything other than the incompetence you mentioned.

I say that, because I honestly think Garrett believes a little too much in his scheme. And the problem is, there are too many other things that went wrong in 2017 (injuries, suspensions, bad luck bounces) that has little to do with scheme that he can point to as the culprit. In other words, I think Garrett may be too close to the picture to see the frame.

But at the end of the day, there are two huge factors they now have to consider:

1. It wasn't just Dez that had a down year...every receiver wearing a star did.
2. It's not just our players saying we are predictable...there are defenders from other teams parroting that narrative.

In those two points, you find a clear indictment of the scheme. Here's hoping they use that and get creative in 2018.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Cuz it worked then...and then it didn't. We are justified in our complaints, sir.

Jokes aside, I am all for running with whatever works, even if it means running the same play 60 times in a row. If it works, it works.

The overlying problem in this study is the lack of adjustment on the Cowboys part to move away from what wasn't working anymore.

Of course, that's just my opinion, man...

Well what is lacking is context. How successful were those plays in those formations? What was the down and distance? What was the ultimate outcome. It could be that those runs and passes out of the bunch formation were our most successful plays. And everything else we ran was trash. We don't know. And that's a problem in trying to draw conclusions.

 

[texbumthelife]

Nobody complained with our run heavy offense in 2016.

I wonder why?

Quite a few of us did raise questions about it, actually. Many of us have been talking about for at least 5 years.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Quite a few of us did raise questions about it, actually. Many of us have been talking about for at least 5 years.

Oh you mean the last 5 years when we were among the best offenses in the entire National Football League?

Might I suggest that most of your angst was better spent worrying about the defense?

The offense outside of 2015 has generally been championship caliber.

 

[texbumthelife]

Oh you mean the last 5 years when we were among the best offenses in the entire National Football League?

Might I suggest that most of your angst was better spent worrying about the defense?

The offense outside of 2015 has generally been championship caliber.

Oh there have definitely been long discussions about the defense. That's a whole other story.

Some of us, however, recognized long ago how this offense is designed to simply line up and beat the guy across from you, and how that would eventually come to bite us in the *** as players aged, injuries happened and/or assets weren't continually applied to it.

Further, the offense didn't look Championship caliber, or even close really, in 2017. It's the usual Garret up and down see-saw from season to season.

 

[waldoputty]

To be honest, I'm not sure if it clearly shows anything other than the incompetence you mentioned.

I say that, because I honestly think Garrett believes a little too much in his scheme. And the problem is, there are too many other things that went wrong in 2017 (injuries, suspensions, bad luck bounces) that has little to do with scheme that he can point to as the culprit. In other words, I think Garrett may be too close to the picture to see the frame.

But at the end of the day, there are two huge factors they now have to consider:

1. It wasn't just Dez that had a down year...every receiver wearing a star did.
2. It's not just our players saying we are predictable...there are defenders from other teams parroting that narrative.

In those two points, you find a clear indictment of the scheme. Here's hoping they use that and get creative in 2018.

1. incompetence - as agreed
2. lackadaisical attitude - they do not even self-scout enough to know they only rush from certain formations 100% of the time. that suggests no self-scouting, no red team in terms of coaching, no analytics as a competent analytics guy would be laughing his *** off.
3. unable to delegate - if they are too busy in a game, they could simply have delegated the task to double check playcalling is not stupid. anyone who has run a reasonable size business would do that.

i just cannot believe they can be this bad. it is a clown show. it is a horror show.

 

[jday]

Well what is lacking is context. How successful were those plays in those formations? What was the down and distance? What was the ultimate outcome. It could be that those runs and passes out of the bunch formation were our most successful plays. And everything else we ran was trash. We don't know. And that's a problem in trying to draw conclusions.

As far as I'm concerned, it's real simple. The Cowboys are formulaic to a fault.

Prime Example: Lucky Whitehead and Dwayne Harris.

When both were here, they were almost exclusively used as gimmick players when on the field. And now it's the same with Switzer. The only time he gets an offensive play is as a decoy or jet sweep. Back when Romo was QB and the Cowboys lined up in the shotgun either inches away from the endzone or first down, pretty much everyone knew it would be a shotgun draw.

You can explain it away and justify it all you like, the end result is still Garrett and company being predictable...and so much so, it is worthy of finding fault in.

 

[waldoputty]

As far as I'm concerned, it's real simple. The Cowboys are formulaic to a fault.

Prime Example: Lucky Whitehead and Dwayne Harris.

When both were here, they were almost exclusively used as gimmick players when on the field. And now it's the same with Switzer. The only time he gets an offensive play is as a decoy or jet sweep. Back when Romo was QB and the Cowboys lined up in the shotgun either inches away from the endzone or first down, pretty much everyone knew it would be a shotgun draw.

You can explain it away and justify it all you like, the end result is still Garrett and company being predictable...and so much so, it is worthy of finding fault in.

evidence points to rigid people who should are not strategists.
this type of personalty is good for being task masters, but certain not for architecting the offensive or defensive schemes.
they seem to lack someone with even the very 1st class in game theory.

the absolute opposite personality from belicheat.
the cowboys are probably the laughing-stalk of the league.

 

[KevosCowboys]

I bet we were just as predictable in 2016. However we had Zeke all year and the Oline was more in sync. I am not surprised nor should anyone else be. The Cowboys made it a point to not only run the ball but to let you know they are. The running plays are built this way. If you want to discuss on what type of running play was called based on the D's formation throughout the year you will get more information from.

 

[nightrain]

I would be curious to see how predictable our offense was during our 3 super bowls.

Everyone knew what was coming, but couldn't stop it. Cowboys had like four running plays. Problem now is Garrett thinks he is Jimmy Johnson.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Oh there have definitely been long discussions about the defense. That's a whole other story.

Some of us, however, recognized long ago how this offense is designed to simply line up and beat the guy across from you, and how that would eventually come to bite us in the *** as players aged, injuries happened and/or assets weren't continually applied to it.

Further, the offense didn't look Championship caliber, or even close really, in 2017. It's the usual Garret up and down see-saw from season to season.

We were 9th in points/offensive drive last year.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

As far as I'm concerned, it's real simple. The Cowboys are formulaic to a fault.

Prime Example: Lucky Whitehead and Dwayne Harris.

When both were here, they were almost exclusively used as gimmick players when on the field. And now it's the same with Switzer. The only time he gets an offensive play is as a decoy or jet sweep. Back when Romo was QB and the Cowboys lined up in the shotgun either inches away from the endzone or first down, pretty much everyone knew it would be a shotgun draw.

You can explain it away and justify it all you like, the end result is still Garrett and company being predictable...and so much so, it is worthy of finding fault in.

Switzer is a rookie transitioning to a pro WR which is among the hardest transitions in football for a rookie. Besides that he was taking on return duties and had a very productive vet in front of him. Pointing to his lack of production or his lack of usage in a run heavy offense seems....weird.

 

[texbumthelife]

We were 9th in points/offensive drive last year.

And I'm sure that was the sustained average across the season. Not starting out hot and then getting worse as the season went on and we kept. Doing. The. Same. Thing.

How anyone can argue the predictability of this offensd in light of players, coaches and scouts all pointing it out, is beyond me.

 

[cowboy_ron]

It's easy for most to see, but for our coaching staff it's like a physics exam.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

And I'm sure that was the sustained average across the season. Not starting out hot and then getting worse as the season went on and we kept. Doing. The. Same. Thing.

How anyone can argue the predictability of this offensd in light of players, coaches and scouts all pointing it out, is beyond me.

I don't think anyone is arguing that we tended to run out of a 2 tight end set inside the opponents 35. The numbers are what the numbers are. What we can't do is draw conclusions about how successful those plays were on an individual basis. The data isn't provided in the OP.

But given that we were a successful offense overall....i'd bet many of those plays worked out just find.

And no the offense didn't really jsut get worse as the season went on in some linear fashion as you suggested.

we had an awful 3 game stretch. We then averaged 30 points per game from Nov 30th through Dec 2017. Was that representative of an offense on step decline as the season wore on?

As always, you're entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

 

[waldoputty]

I don't think anyone is arguing that we tended to run out of a 2 tight end set inside the opponents 35. The numbers are what the numbers are. What we can't do is draw conclusions about how successful those plays were on an individual basis. The data isn't provided in the OP.

But given that we were a successful offense overall....i'd bet many of those plays worked out just find.

And no the offense didn't really jsut get worse as the season went on in some linear fashion as you suggested.

we had an awful 3 game stretch. We then averaged 30 points per game from Nov 30th through Dec 2017. Was that representative of an offense on step decline as the season wore on?

As always, you're entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.

the offense was overall successful.
of course, they better be with the money spent.
but it is on the margin where details matter.
when the defense is good.
when the ol is injured.
when we want to modify the ratio of offense vs. defense salary cap spending.
does it make any sense to allow the rde to know that it is going to be a run or a pass.
to let the defense to know if it is a run or a pass before they decide to blitz or stunt.
this falls under the brain dead category

 

[percyhoward]

All that information on pass routes, formations, and concepts, and almost nothing on the results of the actual plays that were run.

Offense
with all 5 OL playing most of game
300 points on 111 drives (2.70 ppd)
28.4 ppg with typical number of drives
without
40 points on 52 drives (0.77 ppd)
8.1 ppg with typical number of drives

The Patriots led the NFL last year with 2.69 points per drive.

In the 11 games with the starting OL intact, the Cowboys scored 2.70 points per drive.

 

[waldoputty]

All that information on pass routes, formations, and concepts, and almost nothing on the results of the actual plays that were run.

Offense
with all 5 OL playing most of game
300 points on 111 drives (2.70 ppd)
28.4 ppg with typical number of drives
without
40 points on 52 drives (0.77 ppd)
8.1 ppg with typical number of drives

The Patriots led the NFL last year with 2.69 points per drive.

In the 11 games with the starting OL intact, the Cowboys scored 2.70 points per drive.

right
with overwhelming talent afforded by offense spending 70%? of the cap - offense is great.
without the overwhelming talent - not so good.

furthermore, note the denver game.
when the defense is good, they kick out butt

 

[Risen Star]

No team can assemble that kind of talent any more in the salary cap era, so it is not comparable.

On offense? I disagree. Not that it would be easy but possible.