I agree. Teams often take a tactical view in the group stages. For weaker teams the tactic often used is to try not to be eliminated before the final group match. They will often play for a 0-0 tie in the first 2 matches. They then hope results go their way in the 3rd games. I think coaches have worked out the probabilities and concluded this. Strange things and strange results can happen in 3rd games e.g.
- teams not bothering because they've already qualified.
- teams looking at likely opponents in round 2.
- impact of nerves/pressure.
Also, coaches know what way the other games are going. Often things can crystalise mid match which can mean a team or teams taking the foot off the gas which benefits weaker teams seeking a win.
Someone mentioned Italia 90. In the group stages Egypt played 11 in the box almost on the goal line for the first 2 games - no interest in winning just hoping to be in the mix for the final game.
Same group - Ireland and Netherlands we're playing an exciting 3rd match. Then results crystalised elsewhere so both teams simply ran out the clock passing the ball around slowly as a tie was enough for both.
Once Spain and Portugal tied at 3-3 that strat has to go out the window.
That was literally the worst result for Iran. Because it means even if they tie both the sides they wouldn't advance with 5 points unless Morocco beat one of the far superior sides.
So 1 point with no goals scored is meaningless.
It would take 6 points to get into knockout stage which means beating one side or the other. You take your shot twice!
If you fail having 4 points versus 3 means absolutely nothing.
They are in same boat now they would have been in with a tie except the goals scored hurts them.
Had they played aggressively and lost 4-3 they'd be better off.
I've coached lots of pool play stuff.
This is basic math.
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