A guy who has a back issue who has only produced for one season. He wants top of the market money.
I understand your concerns. I really do. But, honestly, Lawrence's trajectory has actually been straight up since his rookie season. The injury riddled season certainly is a legitimate reason to give pause. I don't give much credence to the 4 game suspension as the NFL would suspend you for drinking the wrong brand of tea.
Despite those concerns, his actual play on the field has gotten better every season. He's actually becoming the player that we hoped he would be when we drafted him. It's harder and harder to develop these kids and the CBA rules aren't helping.
Quick diversion: I heard a stat on Sirius XM NFL Radio a couple of weeks back that the new CBA has created a situation that it now takes 3 years worth of practice to get the same number of reps now that a player could have gotten in one year under the previous CBA. That's A LOT of invested time in a player (regardless of position). It was also posited that it's the sole reason for such poor play along both sides of the trenches and why it takes so long, now, to develop these players (and consequently why guys like Martin, Fredrick, Bosa, etc. are truly great players because they've transcended that situation and were dominant from the word go but, they are ABSOLUTELY exceptions to the rule in a league starving for competent play from both sides of the trenches and QB positions).
Is it a gamble to sign Lawrence to a long term deal? Of course it is. Just like it's a gamble to sign Hitchens to his deal or Sammy Watkins to his. At some point you've got to piss or get off the pot. As was mentioned earlier in this thread: there are no trophies for saved cap space. Teams that horde their cap space are rarely in the hunt at the end of the season either. This is a talent acquisition league. The plus side to signing Lawrence now is how good this deal is going to look 3 years down the road. It doesn't get any cheaper to sign this guy regardless of the "prove it" bravado that's being bantered about, here.
For years everyone around here wanted Jerry to start getting smart about contracts and build more through the draft. Well, he's done that and, in part, completely avoided the bloated FA market where you pay a good player like a great player (see: Hitchens, Watkins) and he's put us in position to actually re-sign some of our own great players before they hit the streets and we end up competing with teams with, literally, 60 million more in cap space than we do.
Waiting another year for Lawrence is playing it safe and playing it expensive. We won't win any championships with that mindset or philosophy, IMHO. I could be completely wrong and I'm 100% comfortable with that. I'll admit it if it breaks that way without reservation. I see it this way: If I'm going to blow $1000.00 at the craps table, I'm throwing it all down, right now. I'm not going to die a slow 6 hour death playing it safe while I watch my pile slowly diminish. That's a strategy for wasting your current talent hoping something breaks your way (See: Romo, Ware, Witten). Again, IMHO.
Good talking with ya, cb.
