ESPN Insider: 2018 NFL QB Tiers - 50 execs rank starting QBs

[viman96]

First off do not kill the messenger

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations.

Tier 1: Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes, but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

Tier 2: Ryan, Wilson, Stafford, Rivers, Wentz, Luck, Newton, Carr, Garoppolo, Watson

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter, but needs a heavier running game and/or defense to win. A lower-volume passing offense makes his job easier.

Tier 3: Cousins, Smith, Manning, Prescott, Goff, Winston, Mariota, Dalton, Flacco, Keenum, Taylor, Bortles, Tannehill, Bradford

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside, or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.

Tier 4: Trubisky, McCown, Mahomes, McCarron

 

[viman96]

Wentz

2018 tier average: 1.84

Only Goff enjoyed a larger gain from last offseason among returning quarterbacks. Wentz's 1.1-point improvement from a 2.9 average vote to a 1.8 likely would have been even greater if he had been the Eagles' quarterback during their Super Bowl-winning playoff run.

"I think he is a 2 that will be a 1, and then once he is a 1, it looks like he has a lot of the traits like Brady," a Super Bowl-winning coordinator said. "You'd just like to see him do it more."

A personnel director was one of 12 voters to place Wentz in the top tier already.

"Obviously, he had the knee, but if healthy and all that stuff, he's a 1," this director said. "He has a little backyard in him, but he is a very poised passer, a really gifted runner and he has the arm to make all the throws. He is confident, doesn't get rattled, does all the things that you want, and his team -- the players -- they gravitate to him."

A quarterbacks coach who placed Wentz in the second tier noted that most teams would be in trouble if they lost a Tier 1 quarterback. The Eagles flourished.

"He was slightly above average as a rookie," another voter placing Wentz in the third tier said. "He played 12 games and part of a 13th game last year. With all these guys, we should ask what they would be with an average supporting cast, average coaching, an average defense and an average kicking game. Remember how excited people were about Derek Carr a year ago? These young guys should be slow to ascend. What's the rush?"

Eagles backup Nick Foles doesn't have his own entry here because he's not the projected starter, but I did include him in the survey. He landed solidly in the third tier between Joe Flacco and Tyrod Taylor, pulling five votes in the second tier, 34 in the third and 11 in the fourth.

"He is a 3 and I could rationalize putting him as a 2 because he is a better thrower than anybody gives him credit for," an offensive coach said of Foles.

 

[Batman1980]

Why would I kill the messenger? At this point in his career, that's 100% accurate for Prescott. He's a good QB but just won't wow you yet. I could make an argument for Goff, Cousins and Mariota to be Tier 2 though.

 

[viman96]

Manning

2018 tier average: 2.78

Manning's average vote declined by six-tenths of a tier, the largest decline for any returning starter. There was some optimism that new coach Pat Shurmur, healthier skill players and new running back Saquon Barkley could be a good combination for Manning.

"My gut tells me he is going to end his career strong, but he is a 3 right now," a GM said. "I think with Barkley helping him now and the tight end with those receivers, I have a funny feeling he will be like his brother, play another three years, play well and ride out."

The knocks on Manning were that he could no longer move and had become so conscious of being hit that he was looking for a spot to sit down. That is not a good combination for anyone, and particularly not for a player whose accuracy has been inconsistent.

"Shurmur helps him the same way he helped Keenum," a personnel director said. "He finds favorable matchups. With the weapons that they have in New York, I think he is going to be really good for Eli. Eli struggled because he kept getting hit, and he is scared of getting hit. I think maybe Shurmur will be able to get the ball out quicker and get it in the playmakers' hands quicker."

 

[viman96]

Prescott

2018 tier average: 2.78

The way Prescott struggled without Ezekiel Elliott explains why the young quarterback received 13 fewer votes in the second tier this offseason compared to last. He stayed in the third tier overall, slipping three spots in the order.

"What you see is, he needs a run game and the MVP of that team is not Dak Prescott -- it's Ezekiel Elliott," a defensive coordinator said.

We hear all the time about how the NFL is a passing league, almost as though the running game is a waste of time. But the value of the running game cannot be fully measured through rushing statistics.

"When you have that run game, you are going to see simple single-high defenses, so there will not be combination coverages, no stuff where the coverage is going to change on the motion, because people are geared to stop your run game," a defensive coordinator explained. "Unless you have two man-child corners, there are going to be some open throws."

While some voters expressed renewed concerns about Prescott's accuracy, his rushing contributions helped him finish fourth in QBR last season. There was still optimism about what he can become, although Jason Witten's retirement and weakness at wide receiver in Dallas could be problematic.

"He is not afraid, he did it as a rookie, he took his shots last year and still said the right things," a voter said. "I like him."

 

[viman96]

Smith

2018 tier average: 2.52

Polling was generally done in alphabetical order of team or player names, so voters were not asked about the Commanders' new quarterback (Smith) and their old one (Cousins) in succession. Even so, they finished with the same number of votes in each tier: 24 in the second and 26 in the third. On follow-up, voters typically said they would prefer Smith if given a choice, partly because they perceived him to be a better leader.

"I watched all his tape and would make him the last guy in the second tier," an offensive coach said of Smith. "He gets the most out of what he's got more than anybody else I've seen. He is a great decision-maker."

Smith started five consecutive seasons under Andy Reid and played with a stable of dynamic playmakers featuring Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Smith is joining a Commanders team lacking in that type of firepower. For that reason, it could be tough for him to complete eight touchdown passes of 50-plus yards, as he did with Kansas City last season (the most since John Hadl in 1968).

"Kansas City is going to miss him," an offensive coordinator said. "They are going to be excited about how dynamic [Patrick] Mahomes is, but when it is said and done, I think they would have won more games with Alex than they will with Mahomes next year. They are going to be hoping Mahomes will play more like Alex in the future."

 

[Doomsday]

I love how people prop up Wentz as the next greatest thing, while slighting Dak. The stats just don't back it up.

 

[Batman1980]

They've both had 1 MVP caliber season and 1 no-no season, the truth for both is probably somewhere in the middle.

 

[Stash]

First off do not kill the messenger

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations.

Tier 1: Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes, but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

Tier 2: Ryan, Wilson, Stafford, Rivers, Wentz, Luck, Newton, Carr, Garoppolo, Watson

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter, but needs a heavier running game and/or defense to win. A lower-volume passing offense makes his job easier.

Tier 3: Cousins, Smith, Manning, Prescott, Goff, Winston, Mariota, Dalton, Flacco, Keenum, Taylor, Bortles, Tannehill, Bradford

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside, or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.

Tier 4: Trubisky, McCown, Mahomes, McCarron

This is directed at the article, not at you personally, I appreciate it when anyone shares information.

Prescott is still a tier 2 guy, based on these jokers own criteria. His numbers are better than both Newton and Carr, and he's proven far more than Garoppolo and Watson have.

But hey, get people talking, right BSPN?

 

[Avery]

I love how people prop up Wentz as the next greatest thing, while slighting Dak. The stats just don't back it up.

Went had a okay rookie season, stellar second season. Dak had an all-time great rookie season, subpar second season. It's all about what you've done for me lately.

I do think Dak will bounce back this year; not forcing the ball to Dez just to suffice him will help immensely IMO.

 

[DFWJC]

I see Mahomes and Trubisky moving up by this time next year, but get why they are where they are for now
Love Watson, but I would've put him with the 3s and moved him up next year if he performs (which I predict he will)

 

[Batman1980]

Watson's going to have to learn not to run so much and how to protect the ball more. To me, he's also tier 3, especially since there isn't a true #1 receiver on that team. I see Hup as more of a really good #2.

 

[Stash]

I love how people prop up Wentz as the next greatest thing, while slighting Dak. The stats just don't back it up.

And that doesn't even take into account Prescott's 12-2 rushing touchdowns advantage.

 

[Stash]

Watson's going to have to learn not to run so much and how to protect the ball more. To me, he's also tier 3, especially since there isn't a true #1 receiver on that team. I see Hup as more of a really good #2.

You don't think Hopkins is a "true #1 receiver"?

 

[Batman1980]

You don't think Hopkins is a "true #1 receiver"?

No I don't, although his lack of big numbers is probably also due to their lack of a franchise QB or anything resembling it other than Watson since the franchise began. There's also the lack of a franchise RB to take pressure off the passing game.

 

[Stash]

No I don't, although his lack of big numbers is probably also due to their lack of a franchise QB or anything resembling it other than Watson since the franchise began. There's also the lack of a franchise RB to take pressure off the passing game.

I will respectfully disagree about him not being a #1 receiver. He's put up big numbers despite their other issues.

 

[BourbonBalz]

The fanfare for Watson and Garoppolo after only a handful of starts is ridiculous.

 

[Batman1980]

The fanfare for Watson and Garoppolo after only a handful of starts is ridiculous.

Heh there were people (including me, sadly) who thought Prescott was a better fit for this franchise than Tony Romo after that 13-3 season.

 

[big dog cowboy]

 

[America's Cowboy]

And that doesn't even take into account Prescott's 12-2 rushing touchdowns advantage.

Or now Wentz's real physical (knee) limitations...