ESPN Insider: 2018 NFL QB Tiers - 50 execs rank starting QBs

[glimmerman]

Hey I get it, I think he's our next franchise QB and the fact that we stole him in the 4th round as the 8th QB off the board boggles my mind. I remember thinking he was a 2nd-3rd round talent, that DUI must've really scared teams who didn't do their due diligence.

Romo was undrafted. Look where brady was drafted. Hard to tell with some of these players sometimes.

 

[cowboy_ron]

Not sure how Garoppolo got elevated so fast

 

[Batman1980]

Not sure how Garoppolo got elevated so fast

5 game (I think?) winning streak on one of the worst teams in the NFL paired with his draft pedigree and bloated contract, I guess.

 

[MarcusRock]

The large movement from year to year indicate these prognosticators aren't doing a very good job.

Wentz was VERY GOOD last year but he also had the best OL and running game in the NFL. That's the very definition of tier 3.

So perhaps the tier definitions are what is mightily flawed.

According to stats we had a razor thin better rushing game than Philly that scored twice the number of touchdowns. We also only fumbled once all year and they fumbled 11 times (losing 5).

1 Jacksonville 527 att. 2262 yds 4.3 avg. 18 tds 141.4 yds/gm.
2 Dallas 480 att. 2170 yds. 4.5 avg 18 tds 135.6 yds/gm.
3 Philadelphia 473 att. 2115 yds 4.5 avg. 9 tds 132.2 yds/gm.

 

[CPanther95]

You mean the #2 overall pick in the draft that starts for the Super Bowl champions has better outlook right now than the 4th round pick coming off a down season and a 9-7 record? I'm shocked. I think I need to sit down.

Sorry, quoted the wrong post. Meant to hit the one above yours saying they've had comparable 2 years statistically.

 

[silvrNblue]

Why would I kill the messenger? At this point in his career, that's 100% accurate for Prescott. He's a good QB but just won't wow you yet. I could make an argument for Goff, Cousins and Mariota to be Tier 2 though.

And every name you mentioned, have about 2 or 3 years more plying time then Dak....DP is a 2nd year starter....so these type of polls = squat in my opinion.

 

[Lutonio]

Watson in Tier 2 after that small sample?

 

[Super_Kazuya]

I love how people prop up Wentz as the next greatest thing, while slighting Dak. The stats just don't back it up.

Well when you reference made up and cherry picked stats, you may get different conclusions from those looking at the real ones...

 

[punchnjudy]

Not sure how Garoppolo got elevated so fast

Since they don't seem to be rating personal accomplishments, it's really just their best guess with the small sample guys. NFL history shows how difficult it is for even pros to project QB play with a small sample.

 

[Cowboys22]

I love how people prop up Wentz as the next greatest thing, while slighting Dak. The stats just don't back it up.

Prescott started out hot as a rookie and is seen as having regressed a little in year two. Wentz started out slow and is seen as greatly improving with his arrow pointing up. Not saying all that is justified but it is the prevailing view amoung many. That is how he gets rated higher. This year will go a long way to telling if that is a correct assessment or if Dak is equal to or greater than Wentz.

 

[Insomniac]

This is directed at the article, not at you personally, I appreciate it when anyone shares information.

Prescott is still a tier 2 guy, based on these jokers own criteria. His numbers are better than both Newton and Carr, and he's proven far more than Garoppolo and Watson have.

But hey, get people talking, right BSPN?

Analysts for national outlets (and teams and fans) tend to give the benefit of the doubt to high draft picks and just doubt lower round picks. It seems like it was always this way but it's become more pronounced in the last 10-15 years. At some point the players performance should be all that matters.

I like to look at stats to see how a QB's team does in adverse circumstances, things like when the team gives up 25+ points, when the team rushes for less than 100 yards etc. The problem with that is for young players the sample size is too small. You can look at things like total PAs in a game too. Generally the higher the number of attempts a team has the less likely they are to win. Over the last 10 years teams with 30+ pass attempts had a W/L% of .420.
For active QBs with at least 15 games the ones over .500 are.

Tom Brady 138 42 0 0.767
Aaron Rodgers 65 39 0 0.625
Russell Wilson 28 20 1 0.592
Ben Roethlisberger 72 54 0 0.571
Andrew Luck 32 24 0 0.571
Carson Wentz 13 10 0 0.565
Dak Prescott 10 8 0 0.556
Drew Brees 108 93 0 0.537
Andy Dalton 34 32 2 0.529
Matt Ryan 62 58 0 0.517

I'm not predicting either Wentz or Prescott's teams will continue their above average performance in these situations but even with the small sample size it's a positive indicator.

 

[Coy]

Dak on tier 3, sounds about right. I do think that could change, this is the year where we find out if he could be a tier 2 or even 1 kind of guy.
Let's hope he is.

Saying that, as much as it pains me to say it, Wentz > Dak, no question about it.

 

[StarOfGlory]

I love how people prop up Wentz as the next greatest thing, while slighting Dak. The stats just don't back it up.

One QB improved from year one to year two; the other QB regressed from year one to year two. It's not hard to see why people are so high on Wentz. If he didn't get hurt he is probably the MVP of the league last year. The stats don't tell the whole story.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Well well well


Even GMs dont even have Prescott ranked as a top 3 QB in this division






Let the ad hominems begin...

 

[CouchCoach]

These rankings seem to ignore everything around the QB. The only one I have seen do it with changing out the supporting cast consistently is Brady.

It is a useless game of tiering QB's in the ultimate team sport. 2 of those Tier 1 QB's have 1 ring and 2 of those Tier 3 QB's have 2 rings.

The QB is the most important position on the team but not the only one. More teams with good balance and great D's have won more rings than all of the Tier 1 QB's in the history of the league. And it took great D's to get Tier 1's a ring.

 

[G2]

I like how some keep repeating how Prescott did without Elliott. Like he was the only player who missed games from suspension/injury or played injured. Weren't we 3-3 without Elliott?

 

[jterrell]

According to stats we had a razor thin better rushing game than Philly that scored twice the number of touchdowns. We also only fumbled once all year and they fumbled 11 times (losing 5).

1 Jacksonville 527 att. 2262 yds 4.3 avg. 18 tds 141.4 yds/gm.
2 Dallas 480 att. 2170 yds. 4.5 avg 18 tds 135.6 yds/gm.
3 Philadelphia 473 att. 2115 yds 4.5 avg. 9 tds 132.2 yds/gm.

Very true Marcus. And in the first half the season we were darn good. DAL only had a 100 yard rusher twice however in the final 8 games.
Morris once versus an awful Commanders team and Zeke in week 17 versus the back up Eagles.
DAL in general experience a tale of two seasons.
1st half we were good offensively and defense was young and injured.
2nd half defense was ascending with better health and the young guys growing up and the offense minus Tyron and Zeke (they had 3 second half the year snaps on the field together) went to pot.

Eagles were a good consistent regular season OL that could run and pass the ball without any fear.
They won time of possession and were pretty dominant until Wentz went down.

But it's not hard to see 2016 where Wentz was awful and Dak was great.
DAL was far better as a running team and on the OL.
You can see exactly why DAL chose to sign a back up OT, OG and spend a R2 on a starting LG.
They invested in the lifeblood.

The other really good offense was the Rams of course and they just gave Gurley 60M.
Guess they don't think Goff is beyond needing a running game huh?

 

[jterrell]

I like how some keep repeating how Prescott did without Elliott. Like he was the only player who missed games from suspension/injury or played injured. Weren't we 3-3 without Elliott?

we were but offensively we averaged bupkis on points. We scored below 10 points THREE times... Yikes!!!

 

[G2]

we were but offensively we averaged bupkis on points. We scored below 10 points THREE times... Yikes!!!

That's a good point, but I still stick to the idea there were a few other factors on top of that. Remember when Lee was out? Holy hell were were terrible.

 

[Batman1980]

we were but offensively we averaged bupkis on points. We scored below 10 points THREE times... Yikes!!!

Why I would've given Linehan his walking papers and brought in someone new.