Are draft picks overvalued?

[Cowboy Brian]

Totally fine with trading a 6th round pick for a Tavon Austin. But I never want to see a Joey Galloway for 2 first round picks or a Roy Williams for a first round pick type trade again.

Agreed

 

[jrumann59]

I do not know those years Dallas lost multiple picks for Galloway and Williams seemed to hurt pretty bad.

 

[Pompey-Cowboy]

Draft picks in general aren't over rated. Hoping your team tanks if they get off to a bad start to move up a few places on the draft board is massively over rated.

 

[JustChip]

Depends on what you call a good deal.

3rd for ET? Good deal.
2nd for ET? Fine, but a lot for a non QB/pass rusher soon to be FA IMO.
Seattle however wants more than that.
It's a hard pill to swallow to give up a 1st or a 2nd+ for a 29 year old player who wants a top dollar contract off the bat to not be disgruntled.
Especially when he is set to be a free agent the following year, and to be honest this team isn't ET away from the Superbowl.
I wouldn't mind getting ET now to make most of the cap hit fall in this and next year before 2nd contracts like Dak/Zeke/D-Law possibly hit.

The draft isn't some exact science and sure some teams may over value it. However, with free agency always setting a higher bar for every position every year it is vital to draft well and get a player for relative peanuts in cost for at least 4 years.

Not sure the Lions could of moved that pick for that type of ransom unless there was a "top" QB there as well. Teams will give away picks for a possible franchise QB. DT, not so much.
Lions got screwed in a sense for sucking way back then. Rookies drafted that high were getting top 5 deals off the bat and re-signing elite players like Suh/Calvin Johnson took up even more cap.
Now, rookies taken high get a good salary but no where near the late 2000's rookies were.

Excellent post. And because the draft isn't an exact science, it makes total sense to try to parlay a top pick into multiple picks to mitigate the risk of that inexact science.

 

[Aven8]

Just ask the Donny Nelson and his opinion of draft picks!! Lol

 

[John813]

Excellent post. And because the draft isn't an exact science, it makes total sense to try to parlay a top pick into multiple picks to mitigate the risk of that inexact science.

Yup. Where having a sound organizational foundation and vision is key. The Browns are a carousel of GMs and Head Coaches who constantly change visions and schemes. Their drafting is crap for multiple reasons, scheme fits, overdrafting a player, poor scouting or having the owner butt in(JFM) to name a few.

 

[Verdict]

The short answer is hell yes the draft picks are worth it. Lol.

I'll play along with the intent of your post though. Draft pick value is relative to where you fall in the round, how well you draft, the strength of the draft, whether the draft has depth at a position of need and whether need lines up with talent.

If you draft well, draft picks are gold. You get good picks for a cheap cap hit. Most people would agree with all of that.

The other side of that coin is if your team misses all the time with picks, then a trade for a more proven player may lower bust postential.

Moreover a guy like Lawrence is less clear cut than most suggest. We gave up a second and a 3rd for him. He underperformed for his first 3 years in the league and had what most would call a string 4th year. So we got one positive return on him and three sub par years.

Some will now say but look what we have in Lawrence! He is a beast! Maybe but you are paying him literally top 5 money at his position. You can pay a guy top dollar in free agency without spending a draft pick and not waste the ramp up time to get to top performance.

The Lawrence pick was a good projection, but peak performance took away the chance to get a lot in the way of return for a cheap cost. The only way we really would have received a good rate of return on Lawrence would have been to extend him before his breakout year and then for him to continue to be dominant.

I am not opposed to giving up 5th to 7round picks for players. But it's not prudent to give up a 5th for BRICE Butler.

 

[Doomsday101]

This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.

While there are top picks that bust most top players in this league were top picks. I agree teams will find later picks who turn out to be better than were they were selected but still think teams are built through the draft and those top picks matter a lot.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I do not know those years Dallas lost multiple picks for Galloway and Williams seemed to hurt pretty bad.

Yep.

They don't hurt, until you don't have'em.

 

[John813]

Yep.

They don't hurt, until you don't have'em.

What hurt even more was that those teams had other flaws elsewhere/aging players with short time spans remaining. Losing those firsts
Aikman was getting concussed left and right and Smith was no spring chicken and Sherman Williams did not pan out. Add in salary cap hell, those first rounders would of sped up the downtime from that during the Campo era.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

What hurt even more was that those teams had other flaws elsewhere/aging players with short time spans remaining. Losing those firsts
Aikman was getting concussed left and right and Smith was no spring chicken and Sherman Williams did not pan out. Add in salary cap hell, those first rounders would of sped up the downtime from that during the Campo era.

Yep that hurt even more! lol

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.

what do you consider a high bust rate? chances of high round draft picks, like 1st and 2nd round failing in NFL is not that high. you get potentially a high caliber player for a low cost, which helps the cap. With that said, there is a high bust rate of FAs, as often really good ones are paid and kept by their teams, its rare that good players make it to FA and most often they are past their prime or have had injury history or aren't that good any more and often they want a lot of money and return on investment is low. I think if anything draft picks have higher value today than in the past. also, it would be interesting to see which franchises do well in draft. Cleveland has been notoriously bad, and teams like Pittsburgh, philly, NE and even dallas have been good in drafting and hitting on the 1st and 2nd rounders.

 

[jday]

I think you're taking my point out of context.

Why not trade a 4th or 5th rounder for a starter for the next few years? Not an elite player, but a good starter. A 3rd in many cases can get you a top 10 player at a position.

I recognize the value of home-grown talent, I understand the value of the rookie contracts, but with the amount of draft picks who end up off the team within 2-3 years, it doesn't seem like a bad strategy to augment drafting early & late with trading for proven starters using the mid round picks.

The problem is not your idea, which probably has some merit, but the fact that we all know where this conversation leads because many of us who have been here for awhile have had this conversation (or something like it) too many times already.

As with any idea involving why not do this trade or that trade, the answer invariably always is because you either have a willing trade partner or you don't. It's not like the guys getting paid millions of dollars to do what we do from the comfort of our couch for free, hasn't already thought of this.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.

Its a combo affair from a Good GM to build a Superbowl contender....wise draft selections,fa pick ups, and a trade now and then.....can't do it alone with draft picks.....problem with us is that Jerry is the GM hence our 23 year wait

 

[John813]

Yep that hurt even more! lol

Heh, looks like I accidentally cut something out after firsts and didn't review the post. Oh well lol.

 

[xwalker]

This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.

No.

The vast majority of good players were drafted.

With the salary cap it would be impossible to have all veterans on 2nd contracts.

Draft picks are cap management tools. Teams get 4 years (5 for 1st round picks) at relatively low costs. If a player is great they can get another year using the franchise tag.

The primary value is when the player is on the rookie contract. Not re-signing a player after their rookie contract is not a doom scenario. At that point they cost the same as signing a free agent from another team.

Each year that Zack Martin played on his roookie contract he performed like a player that would cost about 13M per season in free agency. He averaged 2M per on his rookie contract.

The Cowboys had these options:
1. Sign a 13M per free agent OG.

2. Draft Martin and use 11M on a free agent at another position.

Either scenario would cost 13M per.

 

[Keithfansince5]

This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.

YES. If anyone thinks ET is not worth LVE they are not well informed. I hope Jerry gives Seattle a #1 pick and gets ET as he is way more valuable than LVE our #1 pick. Go get ET Jerry.

 

[TheRomoSexual]

I actually think fans underrate draft picks. The draft is a crapshoot, always will be; but the more rolls you have the better.

 

[jrumann59]

what do you consider a high bust rate? chances of high round draft picks, like 1st and 2nd round failing in NFL is not that high. you get potentially a high caliber player for a low cost, which helps the cap. With that said, there is a high bust rate of FAs, as often really good ones are paid and kept by their teams, its rare that good players make it to FA and most often they are past their prime or have had injury history or aren't that good any more and often they want a lot of money and return on investment is low. I think if anything draft picks have higher value today than in the past. also, it would be interesting to see which franchises do well in draft. Cleveland has been notoriously bad, and teams like Pittsburgh, philly, NE and even dallas have been good in drafting and hitting on the 1st and 2nd rounders.

With the rookie scale draft picks are worth a lot more. Get talent "cheap" for 3-5 years and high picks do not handicap you if they "bust". The days of a Jamarcus Russell hamstringing your cap because he sucks are gone, 100 million rookie QB deals for 7 years, it makes you keep your roster middle of the road until you can off load a bad rookie deal.

 

[LandryFan]

This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.

Every player in the league comes from the draft (or, occasionally, from UDFA). So I fail to see how the draft is overvalued. The key is in picking the right ones...