Are draft picks overvalued?

TwoDeep3

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A drafted player that ends up in the hall of fame has the same value no matter what round he was drafted in.

Staubach was drafted in the 10th round. Outside of money, his value is no different than any other guy.

That is a fan bragging rights intending to say your fav team is so astute they saw a diamond in the rough.

The actual talent of the player was misconstrued. Fred Beard is the best center in his draft. The fact the team got him for less is irrelevant.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

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That is pretty similar to getting a HoF outside the Top10

There are different levels of wins but most Draft Picks are lucky to be starters for 4 years
the odds are still better than lottery, which you exaggerated. if you go by the real odds, then its better to have draft picks and the more the better. In fact, that's what patriots did for a long time, in accumulating draft picks and specially mid round ones. and HOF is tough to get in. there is 230+ players drafted each year. there is 5 inducted to HOF each year. its supposed to be tough.
 

CowboysFaninHouston

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There's nothing more "overrated" than sorry coaches getting meaningless wins to save their own hides.

This past year? If we don't "win" that pathetic week seventeen game, we're looking at Derwin James and our safety need filled over LVE.

In 2015, if we didn't win a meaningless game against Washington, we're picking Carson Wentz at quarterback at #2 overall instead of drafting a running back at #4.

But hey, we've still got Garrett and Co., right? Right?
in 2015, Philly was below us in the draft and they traded up and gave up a bunch..we could have done the same at much less cost....

and you never know how the draft plays out, its after the fact analysis that people do. Rodgers fell in the draft..he is one of the best QBs ever.... and you don't know how derwin james and LVE will do in their NFL career and you are already making assumptions......btw, I thought LB was a need....given we lost Hitchens, Smith was still a question mark and Sean Lee is getting long in the tooth and has had one year in his career when he wasn't injured.

I am against losing games for the sake of draft because you never know how the draft will play out. and in the NFL tanking doesn't work. just look at Detroit and Cleveland. they can't get out of the slump they have been in for a decade.
 

Stash

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in 2015, Philly was below us in the draft and they traded up and gave up a bunch..we could have done the same at much less cost....

and you never know how the draft plays out, its after the fact analysis that people do. Rodgers fell in the draft..he is one of the best QBs ever.... and you don't know how derwin james and LVE will do in their NFL career and you are already making assumptions......btw, I thought LB was a need....given we lost Hitchens, Smith was still a question mark and Sean Lee is getting long in the tooth and has had one year in his career when he wasn't injured.

I am against losing games for the sake of draft because you never know how the draft will play out. and in the NFL tanking doesn't work. just look at Detroit and Cleveland. they can't get out of the slump they have been in for a decade.

Neither have "tanked", they're just not good, well-run organizations.
 

Hardline

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They're not overvalued. They're a way to get talented players for cheap. You can't afford too many veteran superstars, and you can't build a winning team around cheap veterans who are cheap for a reason. You need to get quality production from guys on cheap rookie contracts in order to win games. The higher the pick, the higher the likelihood of the quality.
Exactly right.
If draft picks were looked at as scratch off lottery tickets a forth round draft pick would be as valuable as a first round draft pick.
 

Cowboy Brian

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Undervalued by the Seahawks, that's why they want a second and change, over valued by the Cowboys, that's why they won't give the change. Doesn't sound like a real good trade pairing does it?;)
Elite players are a different story - the cost to get them is always going to remain high.

But if you're a team looking for a WR, how much would it take to get T. Williams from the Cowboys? A 6th?
 

SSoup

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In general, draft picks aren't overvalued. Their value is the production you can receive for the low, low cost of a rookie contract. Every draft pick you hit on, you're getting production for peanuts. Which enables you to allocate more resources elsewhere (ideally to stud players you've previously drafted and developed who know your system and thrive in it).

Draft picks are only overvalued when the team making them is too terrible at drafting (and developing) to turn the pick into a good player. But, then, teams who can't draft or develop are unlikely to have drafted a ton of guys previously who turned out to be stars who are commanding big money now anyway, so it's not like that team should need to count on rookie contracts balancing out all their star players' huge deals. Those kinds of teams, if they're in money trouble, it's only because they subscribe to the view of the original poster here, which says that veterans are more valuable than rookies, so they probably have a team built on overpaid vets.

This kind of thinking, thinking the draft and rookies are overvalued, is basically what led to Jon Gruden tanking the Bucs in his last head coaching stint. The Raiders trading a 3rd rounder to check out Martavis Bryant for a few months before cutting him tells me Gruden probably hasn't learned anything.

If you draft well and develop the guys you draft, you're gonna accumulate players who need to be paid real money beginning with their second contracts. Which means you need to continue to draft well to make that financially feasible so you have an infusion of fresh blood playing for peanuts and freeing up more money for the established guys.

If you don't draft well, you won't accumulate stars who need to be paid, so rookie contracts might hold less value. And you won't be picking the right players anyway, so the picks hold less value in your hand. Though, theoretically, the worse you are at drafting, the more you need your picks to be as high as possible to increase the odds of you accidentally lucking into picking a good player.

But whatever.

Ideally, draft picks can give you young stars playing for peanuts. Even if you don't get a huge shooting star out of the pick, the hope is you turn a bunch of picks into Anthony Hitchens types. Guys who aren't sexy stars but they're super solid backups and even nice starters who, by the time their rookie deal is up, might look like a real reliable stud. Draft picks are valuable because of guys like Hitchens. At the end of the day, you want to be the kind of team who has a Hitchens type playing for you for peanuts. Instead of being the team who is paying legit starter money to have that Hitchens-caliber guy playing for you. The team who gets that production without paying serious money for it has a huge advantage.
 

buybuydandavis

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The value of the draft picks are their rookie contracts - it allows the team the flexibility to pay for those superstar players if they choose.

This. It's a capped league. It's all about getting the most bang for your cap dollars and draft picks.

Veteran FA contracts are the worst deals in the league.

Having said that, when you trade for one, the team you're trading with has to eat their bonus money, so that the salary portion of the contract you take on is not as bad a deal. So trading for a player isn't the worst of deals.

But why is the team trading *that deal* to you? Probably cause they're not that happy with that deal. The player is underperforming.

And if the player is performing, guess what? The team is in for a fat comp pick when the contract runs out and he signs a new contract.

That distortion of the trade value of a FA sets a floor on the value of the player in trade. Why trade for less than the comp value pick you have coming by letting the contract run out?

I don't think that teams value their picks too much. The FAs get overvalued relative to draft picks because of the comp pick scheme. Few contracts and free agents rise above that floow. That leaves teams asking *more* than the value of the FA for picks in return.

Teams aren't being stingy with their picks. The NFL has designed the system so that FAs don't get traded, they get converted to draft picks by letting the contract play out.
 

NoLuv4Jerry

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This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.
With this organization....YES!!!! The lack of awareness with this organization when it comes to "where we REALLY are in terms of on field success"......is without bounds. Rarely do non playoff teams draft players in the 1st or 2nd round with no intent on them starting as rookies. When you think of Escobar, Jaylon Smith, Randy Gregory, Taco....I'm sure there are plenty of others I am missing....non playoff teams would need guys drafted in those slots to contribute right away. But the country club we are running does not. All of these guys are made to feel as if they are something they are not before they ever do ANYTHING! Giving Randy Gregory #94...that is just laughable! We think those types of moves motivate guys to become Haley or Ware....or Antonio Bryant being given #88. We might as well trade them for proven players and roll the dice every year. Because Jerry Jones is ALWAYS winning....he never loses. He is simply playing fantasy football and cashing checks. He has proven to ALL of us...that he does not have to win to be #1....to be inducted into the HOF....to keep himself as the GM....to employ all his kids and grandkids to key positions in a football organization. I don't know why I get sucked into talking about Jerry Jones..the weekend just started....and I intend to enjoy it...thinking about the smirk on his face is nauseating.
 

GenoT

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Draft picks are only as valuable as good coaching will take them.

The same is true whith high-priced veterans acquired through trades/FA.

There’s no magic wand.

For instance, FA Ndakumong Suh getting a record $$$$ deal from the Dolphins. He really put them over the top, didn’t he?

Now he’s elsewhere...and Miami is still mediocre.
 

Wood

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This is partially a product of the ET storyline, but applies widely as well.

Given the high bust rate in any given round, combined with the difficulty of re-signing superstar players that go near the top of the draft (N. Suh for example), are draft picks being overvalued in the league right now?

The Lions could've traded that pick for 2 first rounders and 2 second rounders, instead they had a player for a rookie contract. This happens constantly - you see solid, top 12 at position starters being traded for 4th / 5th round picks - relative peanuts. While when you draft, if a 4th or 5th rounder even performs well on a few downs over the season it is considered a win.

Its loaded question. If team is below league average at drafting then yes draft picks are over-valued. If team consistently turns over starters with draft pick then draft picks are even possibly under-valued for them.
 

ItzKelz

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Let's trade all of our draft picks from the last 6 years and find out
 

QuincyCarterEra

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Yes theyre overvalued. The eagles realize that and have capitalized on it.

Wise man once said- The asset that depreciates the fastest is a NFL draft pick
 

Aerolithe_Lion

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It's about balance. Having 30+ guys on rookie contracts didn't help the Browns, but on the flipside we're going to see the ramifications of LA trading away all their picks in about 2 years when their backups suck.

If you have capspace problems every year, you should be drafting better. That's how the Cowboys got out of cap hell, they hit on 1st and 2nd round picks over and over this decade. Conversely, if you have cap space, you should be going out and getting guys. NE always has balance, loads of free agents and home grown guys. Philly has balance, NO, Minnesota, Pittsburgh balance the two well. Team's that don't: Carolina is never active enough in FA, always have holes and mismanage their cap space. Conversely, Washington has a history of spending on anyone they can, and were doing that as recently as 2012, still haven't *quite* come all the way back from that.
 

OmerV

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No, they aren’t. The salary cap means a team can’t just buy quality players for every position, so it takes getting quality players in the draft to fill out a quality roster.
 

jay94

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Elite players are a different story - the cost to get them is always going to remain high.

But if you're a team looking for a WR, how much would it take to get T. Williams from the Cowboys? A 6th?


I would bet you would get zero for him especially with his contract.
 

Nightman

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Yes theyre overvalued. The eagles realize that and have capitalized on it.

Wise man once said- The asset that depreciates the fastest is a NFL draft pick
Every draft pick is an All Pro until you actually draft

Once the draft is over and 10 rookies are at camp it is pretty irrelevant what round they were taken, except to the GM that needs to protect his job

A lot of fans here would never trade a 3rd round pick but they would have traded CGreen in a heartbeat, same with DSchultz and a 4th

Once you open the box you kill Schrodinger's cat
 

dwreck27

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Yes it’s just a gamble...

Trading a for sure top 3 at his position talent like say Mack from the raiders who plays the second most important position behind corner in desirability for two crap shoot 1st round picks that you don’t know if it’s guaranteed top 5/10/20/ hell the bears could win the Super bowl and one of those picks be 32
 
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