They also cannot simply be discounted or dismissed because it's not the answer you want to see./QUOTE]
I'm not discounting the statistic. But making there are 2 sides to the stat you're basing your argument on. You're falling on the 70ish % history of converting on 4th and 1, but that same stat says there is a 30ish % chance of not making it. The coaching decision is to determine, based on how your team is playing and what has happened heretofore in that game and the circumstances at that point, whether your chances are more with the 70 or the 30.
So these statistics are OK to use while ther other, more comprehensive one side are not? I'll leave it to you to see your double standard there.
No double standard. Both statistics are valid. It is a macro vs. micro situation. Which stat most closely reflects the circumstances of that game at that time. E.g. the unemployment rate is 4.1% nationally, 2.9% in Dallas, and 5.8% in Chicago. Which stat is valid? They’re all valid and accurate, but you don’t care about the national or Dallas rate if you live in Chicago.
You'll have to show me numbers to support that claim.
I’ll see if I can find what I’m thinking about. I seem to recollect it was in another thread here in the last few days. But I may be remembering wrong, the ole noodle ain’t what it used to be.