Which scenario seems likely?

[gimmesix]

So here we are, 7 games into the season, at the team’s bye week. After a typical roller coaster ride under Jason Garrett, we lose one, win one....etc. Now we sit at 3 wins, 4 losses with a tougher schedule ahead and two games back of the average deadskins in the loss column.

But....the front office, seeing another season slipping away, stepped up and (overpaid) acquired a top shelf WR with about a year and a half of guaranteed time with the team. Certainly an upgrade for this team which clearly has had the worst receiving corps in the NFL.

Whatever we think of this trade, it’s done, Cooper's here, and we have 9 games to try parlay that into something better than what we have seen to this point.

With that said, what are your expectations NOW, for the rest of the season? If we have pushed the “RESET” button on this season, what do expect?

Here are what I consider to be possible scenarios from best to worst, from here on:

Scenario 1- the team is energized and improved with the Cooper trade, offense improves dramatically, defense continues being strong, and the team goes 7-2 or 8-1 to finish strong at either 10-6 or 11-5 and win the division. Maybe even wins a playoff game or two.

Scenario 2- team improves on offense but not enough to make drastic improvements in the WIN COLUMN, goes 5-4 the rest of the way, finishes 8-8, is eliminated in mid December, doesn’t make the playoffs. Cooper helps, but it’s not enough.

Scenario 3- the team doesn’t improve on offense, either because Cooper doesn’t make a difference, defense slides, or injuries to key positions hit, or Garrett loses the team and a free fall ensues. Team finishes 3-6 rest of the way to go 6-10 overall.

Obviously, Scenario 1 is best case, and what Cowboys fans would want. Scenario 2 is in the middle, keeping us about where we are but without making the playoffs. Scenario 3 is obviously worst case. In any of these scenarios, one thing remains- however we finish, there will not be a #1 draft pick next year.

Which scenario do you think happens AND WHY?

Me- realistically, I see this team finishing in Scenario 2- 8-8, maybe 7-9. I just can’t see the acquisition of Cooper at midseason being enough to overcome the bad work done by this Head Coach. This team should at the very least be 4-3, maybe 5-2. I can’t see how adding a good WR suddenly makes this team a force to be reckoned with.

Your thoughts?

I can't see Cooper fixing what ails this team unless teams suddenly start giving our passing game the respect it hasn't deserved.

However, the after-bye part of our schedule isn't nearly as hard as it appeared before the season. The Titans are 3-4, the Colts are 2-5, the Eagles 3-4, the Giants 1-5, the Bucs 3-3 and the Falcons 3-4. That's a whole lot of average. The Saints (5-1) and the Commanders (4-2) are only teams we play who have winning records right now.

Of course, one of the reasons the Commanders have a winning record is because they beat us, so I don't exactly think we're better than the under-.500 teams on our schedule. Essentially, this is a 6-2 to 7-1 slate of games, and the best we would probably end up doing is finishing 9-7. However, with our offensive struggles, I believe we'll end up 8-8 at best.

 

[GenoT]

So if scenario 2 is most likely, as I think it is, what good does this trade do for us? If we don’t make the playoffs and we don’t have a #1 pick next year, and we’re stuck with Jason Garrett again, is this franchise going forward? Or backward?

This trade is about the rest of this season and the following one (2019). Without the trade, we weren’t gonna make the postseason, and we might not anyway.

Over the course of now until the post-2019 offseason, the Cowboys have to decide if Dak Prescott is the answer at QB. If he can’t develop a consistent chemistry with Cooper, AND improve as a passer, it’s likely they begin looking at a 2020 draft trade-up. Or else they look for a straight trade or FA signing — both of which would be dependent on who/what (?) is available on the market at that time.

This trade buys time and gives the paying customer$ a feeling that the Cowboys recognize that they’re currently mediocre but are trying to improve. As history has shown, it doesn’t take much of an effort to sell this.

As with the Galloway and Williams trades, Jerry knows a splashy WR signing will excite the fan base while distracting from other issues. That we have so many threads on this one trade tells you all you need to know.

 

[Chrispierce]

I don’t know...other than this team is dysfunctional,and will hit a dead end either way. I’ve seen nothing from their history when having these type of seasons to suggest otherwise.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Those are all reasonable points. But I believe we are 3-4 in large part because we have a very poor game management head coach. Sure, if we had a break here and there we could be 6-1, but why does Garrett always seem to mismanage the last 2 minutes of a game?

90% of NFL games are decided by a TD or less regardless of opponent, wouldn’t it make better sense to have a HC that is excellent at managing close games? I can’t imagine anyone trying to be objective would say that Jason Garrett is good at managing the critical moments of a close game.

I can't disagree. Garrett shouldn't be HC and the main reason he is needs great players at every position or he fails. He can't overcome when a starter goes out or game plan against teams weakness. With Cooper I was pointing out that the team is good enough to win without help from Garrett..... Not that we would get any help from Garrett to begin with

 

[Bobhaze]

This trade is about the rest of this season and the following one (2019). Without the trade, we weren’t gonna make the postseason, and we might not anyway.

Over the course of now until the post-2019 offseason, the Cowboys have to decide if Dak Prescott is the answer at QB. If he can’t develop a consistent chemistry with Cooper, AND improve as a passer, it’s likely they begin looking at a 2020 draft trade-up. Or else they look for a straight trade or FA signing — both of which would be dependent on who/what (?) is available on the market at that time.

This trade buys time and gives the paying customer$ a feeling that the Cowboys recognize that they’re currently mediocre but are trying to improve. As history has shown, it doesn’t take much of an effort to sell this.

As with the Galloway and Williams trades, Jerry knows a splashy WR signing will excite the fan base while distracting from other issues. That we have so many threads on this one trade tells you all you need to know.

Excellent analysis.

 

[StylisticS]

Scenario 2 is most likely, but looking at the schedule, I can see Scenario 1 as a possibility. Other than the saints, what team on our remaining schedule scares you? The schedule suddenly doesn't look so tough, with the skins and saints being the only remaining opponent that is currently above .500. If the Cowboys offense can get anything going consistently, and the defense continues to play well, 7-2 is possible. Not saying it's going to happen, but it is possible.

What scares me is this team on the road. This offense is disastrous away from it. I don't see beating Philly at Philly. But aside from that game as well as the saints game, I don't think anybody else is all that daunting. I still say while scenario 1 is possible, scenario 2 is probable.

 

[Diehardblues]

So if scenario 2 is most likely, as I think it is, what good does this trade do for us? If we don’t make the playoffs and we don’t have a #1 pick next year, and we’re stuck with Jason Garrett again, is this franchise going forward? Or backward?

Playoffs or bust.

If this doesn’t uplift our offense and propel us to the playoffs...a bust because we could have missed the playoffs without Cooper and still had our # 1 pick.

 

[CouchCoach]

Yeah, I was thinking scenario 3 was a ‘lose the team’ scenario. I suppose injury (really, the issue in 2015) or something else could cause the team to go into a slump.

So my revised probabilities:

30% Scenario 1
60% Scenario 2
10% Scenario 3

Cheater! You were supposed to pick one!

 

[CouchCoach]

Playoffs or bust.

If this doesn’t uplift our offense and propel us to the playoffs...a bust because we could have missed the playoffs without Cooper and still had our # 1 pick.

And still not end up with a WR as good to start 2019.

 

[Diehardblues]

Jerry lives in the moment. This trade is all about this year. Jerry will worry about next year.. next year.

 

[CouchCoach]

it feels like a re-set to the season.
excited to watch Cooper and Gallup.
REALLY like our young defense.
obviously...#4 has to play better....Im pullin for him.
it just "feels" like a re-set to the season...the only way in the dance is to win the division.
option 1.
we win the East.
if Frederick returns......maybe we win something more.

Can he return this season?

 

[Diehardblues]

And still not end up with a WR as good to start 2019.

It doesn’t matter if we’re not a playoff team. We can lose with anybody. Who helps us over the top matters.

 

[JayFord]

Its the cowboys scenario 3 is really the only option

 

[CouchCoach]

Jerry lives in the moment. This trade is all about this year. Jerry will worry about next year.. next year.

Yep, he can afford to do that because he will not lose anything this year. The man can make any decision about this team he wants with no repercussions.

But, Greg, he's not the only one like that. Most of these guys are in that win now mode unless they really accept what they are as the Giants and Raiders have, probably the Bills and Cards as well.

I cannot fault him for trying to make his team better when they're 3-4 and 1.5 games off the worst division leader in the NFC. If I were a season ticket holder, I would be all in on something like that. Those people don't care about the future as much as the now and this being an offensive player, all the better. They can cheer louder when their offense is coming to the line. I have not seen one other stadium where that happens as much as it does in Dallas. Think they're so savvy they're trying to give them some noise practice for the road?

 

[CouchCoach]

It doesn’t matter if we’re not a playoff team. We can lose with anybody. Who helps us over the top matters.

Pieces, they're all pieces to the puzzle. Is he a completer piece? Don't know but I don't know if any of those WR's coming out are either and that was most definitely a need.

 

[Bullflop]

I think we'll finish at 9-7, which is smack-dab between scenario 1 and scenario 2.

Strangely, it's nothing to brag about and just lame enough to complain about!

Of course, if we were to finish at 8-8, I could always claim to be almost right!

 

[Diehardblues]

Yep, he can afford to do that because he will not lose anything this year. The man can make any decision about this team he wants with no repercussions.

But, Greg, he's not the only one like that. Most of these guys are in that win now mode unless they really accept what they are as the Giants and Raiders have, probably the Bills and Cards as well.

I cannot fault him for trying to make his team better when they're 3-4 and 1.5 games off the worst division leader in the NFC. If I were a season ticket holder, I would be all in on something like that. Those people don't care about the future as much as the now and this being an offensive player, all the better. They can cheer louder when their offense is coming to the line. I have not seen one other stadium where that happens as much as it does in Dallas. Think they're so savvy they're trying to give them some noise practice for the road?

No doubt. I said initially I’m good with the trade but it must work to be called a success.

If not it’s a wasted #1 draft pick.

Whether Jerry suffers any consequences or is accountable Cowboys Football will still suffer which is what I’m here to report on and discuss.

 

[CouchCoach]

I can't see Cooper fixing what ails this team unless teams suddenly start giving our passing game the respect it hasn't deserved.

However, the after-bye part of our schedule isn't nearly as hard as it appeared before the season. The Titans are 3-4, the Colts are 2-5, the Eagles 3-4, the Giants 1-5, the Bucs 3-3 and the Falcons 3-4. That's a whole lot of average. The Saints (5-1) and the Commanders (4-2) are only teams we play who have winning records right now.

Of course, one of the reasons the Commanders have a winning record is because they beat us, so I don't exactly think we're better than the under-.500 teams on our schedule. Essentially, this is a 6-2 to 7-1 slate of games, and the best we would probably end up doing is finishing 9-7. However, with our offensive struggles, I believe we'll end up 8-8 at best.

If you only take records as the predictor, you are right. But there's more to it than that or teams with losing records would never beat teams with winning records.

I think it is more in the offensive and defensive matchup between teams and so far with the Cowboys, the venue.

 

[Diehardblues]

Let’s assume for the sake of discussion we still miss the playoffs. Now are we going to resign Cooper next year to the 13 million he has coming?

Granted he could be better than who we might have drafted but at least we’d have 5 years before we had to pay him.

And then we’re back to where we were with Dez. A #1 receiver we can’t justify his salary cause our QB can’t fully utilize him.

 

[Diehardblues]

I think Cooper is going to help. He has to. Much like Dez and Witten helped last year. The bigger question is will it be enough to push us over the top with Dak?