Trends in Dak's 48 Career Starts

[ScipioCowboy]

If you look at the numbers, you'll see high sack and fumble totals that support some of what you said there. You can also look at his passer rating in Witten and Bryant's last season, when they weren't the same players they had been in previous years, even in 2016. So you could say that, with Bryant and Witten past their prime, Prescott didn't make the other receivers better, for example.

Instead, you're responding as if the OP was an endorsement of Prescott, which tells me you didn't read it. Not that it's a crime to comment on the OP without reading it. I've done it before.

Yeah, I prefer Home Depot to Lowe’s.

 

[sureletsrace]

Yeah, I prefer Home Depot to Lowe’s.

Janet said what?!

 

[Scotman]

No I do not! These are the Dak stats that I see that matter to me as someone who has spent their entire life following football!

1. Does not feel the pockets, always make the wrong repositioning choice
2. Panics once any pressure is felt and stops making reads, shift into instinct panic mode.
3. Cannot throw receivers open.
4. Cannot thread the needle.
5. The more open a receiver, is, the more he "thinks" about his throws and the less accurate he is.
6. He can only make 1-2 reads per play and they are slow reads.
7. He fails miserably to take that one of two key steps in the pocket to buy that extra 1-2 seconds. He just panics and flees. Defenses can easy scheme against him.

You're basically saying that your anecdotal evidence is more factual that the data. Cant' throw receivers open. Can't squeeze the ball into tight coverage. Can't hit receivers in tight coverage. And he gets even less accurate when the receiver is open. If your experience tells you 1-7 are all true, we wouldn't have won any games the last 3 years. You couldn't play with a QB like that at any level and win games.

I'm not sold on Dak yet, so I don't have an agenda. I want to see if he rises to the occasion in the layoffs. But to claim that the data is agenda driven because it can be picked to suit your needs...and that your eyeball test is not...well...is just not logical.

 

[Scotman]

ESPN's stat is EPA-based, so the fumbles and sacks bring down the numbers. If you turn it over and/or get sacked a lot, it may not affect your passing numbers, but it effects your team's expected points. In 2016, his passing was only a little better, but he wasn't getting sacked or fumbling it away as often, so it didn't bring down his QBR.

It comes down to how much of the blame you want to give the QB for sacks and fumbles. Total QBR/EPA doesn't make any distinction, passer rating does. The truth is in the middle. In the last 12 games, Prescott ranks an average of 16th according to ESPN's metric, and 11th according to passer rating. That puts him in the 12th-15th range, depending on how much of the increase in sacks you want to attribute to the QB.

And that's probably a pretty accurate ranking for him...somewhere in the middle. You do an amazing job breaking down the numbers so that I can digest them. I appreciate what you put into these things.

 

[PUSHfold]

He’s never won a game for us? Ever?

Hell no, remember a few weeks ago when Wince scored on demand against our amazing defense and Dak had to throw 17 of 20 for 245 yards and 3 TDs in the 4th QTR and OT to win the game with the NFCE on the line? Yeah that wasn't Dak, that was all Cooper Rush. Dak can't get it done when it matters most like his incredible 4th QTR completion percentages, high amount of TDs, low INTs, and high QBR along with 13 game winning drives in under 3 seasons. Total trash.

 

[Gator88]

You were strong until
you mentioned Romo. Romo never had enough talent around him to win a Superbowl, but Romo made more than his share of mistakes in big games. At least Dak has a clutch gene, unlike Romo.

I wouldn't say that. With the exception of the Vikings game where the Cowboys would have lost with any QB in history, Romo made clutch plays at the end of each playoff game that were messed up by either his teammates or the refs. 2006 Seahawks, the first down conversion on 3rd down before the infamous hold was overturned with zero evidence. 2007 Giants he threw what would have been a game winning touchdown pass on 3rd down but Crayton inexplicably stopped on his route and was short on a walk in touchdown. 2014 Packers and the Dez call go without saying. In each of those cases, he did his job but didn't get the end result.

We would be lucky if Dak was as clutch in the playoffs because as of now Dak's only equivalent play was batted down at the line of scrimmage.

 

[WillieBeamen]

You were strong until
you mentioned Romo. Romo never had enough talent around him to win a Superbowl, but Romo made more than his share of mistakes in big games. At least Dak has a clutch gene, unlike Romo.

Romo was 1000x more clutch than Dak


I like how Dak stans have amnesia when bringing up how pathetic Dak was in that Seattle game last year

 

[DakBringMeBack]

Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.

LOL YEAH YOUR EYES SUPECEDE ALL

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Hell no, remember a few weeks ago when Wince scored on demand against our amazing defense and Dak had to throw 17 of 20 for 245 yards and 3 TDs in the 4th QTR and OT to win the game with the NFCE on the line? Yeah that wasn't Dak, that was all Cooper Rush. Dak can't get it done when it matters most like his incredible 4th QTR completion percentages, high amount of TDs, low INTs, and high QBR along with 13 game winning drives in under 3 seasons. Total trash.

remember when a couple of weeks ago Das led offense scored 0 points....and last week, he threw for 150 yards. i mean all of 150 yards...yeah at 75% completion rate...he is amazing....

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Because his Oline is terrible.

its the OL, the WR, the RB, the TE, the coach, the OC, the kicker, the punter, the defense, fans in section 441, row 34, the global warming, the political environment....but its not Dak...

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.

This is absolutely the best comment/opinion that I have seen in Dak and his QB okay. It’s exactly my opinion and thoughts on him and thank you Darin for articulating it so eloquently.

 

[Boyz981]

Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.

But...All he does is help the TEAM win football games...but that doesn't matter to some! LOL

 

[CyberB0b]

OL/receiving personnel has also played a huge role in the number of sacks.
Games 1-12: 18 sacks
Games 13-24: 18 sacks
Games 25-36: 34 sacks
Games 37-48 41 sacks

This doesn't account for him backing into sacks, running out of bounds and taking a sack (he's done this at least 3x this year alone), and not stepping into pocket.

 

[ItzKelz]

Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.

Often the neglecting of stats are because they do not fit into your agenda...

 

[sbark]

The problem with stats is :

GARBAGE TIME .


How much of those stats are padded with Garbage time ?

And under .500 level teams

Give me stats against winning teams under Garrett 1st, then with dak behind center
Once your in the playoffs.....they are all winning teams, Garrett cannot compete, which then makes dak non-competitive

 

[nightrain]

Playoff Wins - My Favorite Stat

 

[cowboy_ron]

Dak still lacks consistent accuracy and struggles to read defenses which leads to him taking bad sacks.

Dak also still lacks a competent HC/OC..........we've seen what upgrading coaching did for improving the defense.......this offense can do the same thing...this offense has become stale with predictable play calling.

 

[PhillyCowboysFan]

It comes down to how much of the blame you want to give the QB for sacks and fumbles.

Sacks and fumbles caused by the QB are a major part of their evaluation. Some sacks are very easy to see who is to blame and some not so much which leads to conjecture and the old eyeball test which Dak fails miserably.

I want Dak to be successful more then anyone on this board, but he is the most consistently inconsistent QB I have seen in a while. Bad play followed by good play followed by a great play followed by a horrible play. His falling back jump throws which looks good one play leads to me hearing the announcers saying in the next “that ball got away from him”. Over and over again!

 

[percyhoward]

Weeden also had good stats, except for winning percentage!

Weeden has benefited from a small sample of games that includes several games that some other QB started. You have to go back to 2013 to find all of Weeden's last six starts, then he takes a beating as the sample gets larger.

When comparing players, remember that the larger the sample, the more it means.

Last 6 career starts
Prescott 154 of 209 1568 yd 7 td 3 int 99.9
Weeden 121 of 188 1418 yd 7 td 6 int 86.3

Last 8 career starts
Prescott 201 of 276 2081 yd10 td 4 int 100.2
Weeden 151 of 260 1776 yd 9 td 8 int 77.7

Last 12 career starts
Prescott 275 of 393 3000 yd 16 td 6 int 99.4
Weeden 237 of 413 2781 yd 13 td 13 int 75.3