Trends in Dak's 48 Career Starts

percyhoward

percyhoward

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Prescott's 48 career starts divide into several different equally-sized samples, which is convenient for an apples-to-apples comparison of things like yards, attempts, sacks, etc. -- supporting cast and schedule obviously notwithstanding.

The more recent and the larger the sample, the more it means. His career numbers offer the largest sample, but include a lot of old information. His most recent game is fresh info, but it's just one game. So there's a happy medium, and here are three options from which you can decide.

12-game split
Games 1-12 (W 11 L 1)
243 of 358 67.9% 2974 yd 8.3 ypa 19 td 2 int 18 sk 108.6 (47 car 217 yd 4.6 ypc 5 td 8 fum)
Games 13-24 (W 6 L 6)
234 of 367 63.8% 2564 yd 7.0 ypa 21 td 7 int 18 sk 95.5 (35 car 246 yd 7.0 ypc 4 td 2 fum)
Games 25-36 (W 6 L 6)
220 of 351 62.7% 2253 yd 6.4 ypa 10 td 11 int 34 sk 77.5 (48 car 274 yd 5.7 ypc 3 td 4 fum )
Games 37-48 (W 8 L 4)
275 of 393 70.0% 3000 yd 7.6 ypa 16 td 6 int 41 sk 99.4 (57 car 220 yd 3.9 ypc 6 td 11 fum)

8-game split
Games 1-8 (W 7 L 1)
165 of 248 66.5% 2026 yd 8.2 ypa 12 td 2 int 11 sk 104.3 (31 car 129 yd 4.2 ypc 4 td 5 fum)
Games 9-16 (W 6 L 2)
146 of 212 68.9% 1653 yd 7.8 ypa 11 td 2 int 14 sk 105.3 (27 car 162 yd 6.0 ypc 2 td 4 fum)
Games 17-24 (W 4 L 4)
166 of 265 62.6% 1859 yd 7.0 ypa 17 td 5 int 11 sk 97.0 (24 car 172 yd 7.2 ypc 3 td 1 fum)
Games 25-32 (W 4 L 4)
148 of 234 63.2% 1567 yd 6.7 ypa 7 td 9 int 22 sk 76.6 (33 car 173 yd 5.2 ypc 3 td 3 fum)
Games 33-40 (W 4 L 4)
146 of 234 62.4% 1605 yd 6.9 ypa 9 td 4 int 24 sk 88.4 (41 car 252 yd 6.1 ypc 2 td 6 fum)
Games 41-48 (W 6 L 2)
201 of 276 72.8% 2081 yd 7.5 ypa 10 td 4 int 29 sk 100.2 (31 car 69 yd 2.2 ypc 4 td 6 fum)

6-game split
Games 1-6 (W 5 L 1)
125 of 182 68.7% 1486 yd 8.2 ypa 7 td 1 int 9 sk 103.9 (20 car 67 yd 3.4 ypc 3 td 4 fum)
Games 7-12 (W 6 L 0)
118 of 176 67.0% 1488 yd 8.5 ypa 12 td 1 int 9 sk 113.5 (27 car 150 yd 5.6 ypc 2 td 4 fum)
Games 13-18 (W 3 L 3)
116 of 178 65.2% 1281 yd 7.2 ypa 8 td 3 int 10 sk 94.3 (15 car 102 yd 8.5 ypc 1 td 1 fum)
Games 19-24 (W 3 L 3)
118 of 189 62.4% 1283 yd 6.8 ypa 13 td 4 int 8 sk 96.5 (20 car 144 yd 7.2 ypc 3 td 1 fum)
Games 25-30 (W 3 L 3)
109 of 173 63.0% 1174 yd 6.8 ypa 7 td 5 int 16 sk 84.3 (23 car 120 yd 5.2 ypc 2 td 3 fum)
Games 31-36 (W 3 L 3)
111 of 178 62.4% 1079 yd 6.1 ypa 3 td 6 int 18 sk 70.9 (25 car 154 yd 6.2 ypc 1 td 1 fum)
Games 37-42 (W 3 L 3)
121 of 184 65.8% 1432 yd 7.8 ypa 9 td 3 int 21 sk 98.8 (34 car 171 yd 5.0 ypc 3 td 7 fum)
Games 43-48 (W 5 L 1)
154 of 209 73.7% 1568 yd 7.5 ypa 7 td 3 int 20 sk 99.9 (23 car 49 yd 2.1 ypc 3 td 4 fum)

Career (W 31 L 17)
972 of 1469 66.2% 10791 yd 7.3 ypa 66 td 26 int 111 sk 95.4 (187 car 957 yd 5.1 ypc 18 td 25 fum)

Traditional passer rating is in bold, and it doesn't count sacks, QB runs, and fumbles. Here's how the top 10 rated passers this season compare to Dak in sacks, rushing, and total fumbles (not just lost fumbles)...

Prescott
52 sk 305 yd 6 td 12 fum
Top rated passers (avg)
34 sk 175 yd 2 td 7 fum

All data compiled from Pro Football Reference
 
Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.
 
Cowboysfandarin said:
Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.
Click to expand...
:clap:
 
Cowboysfandarin said:
Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.
Click to expand...
If you look at the numbers, you can see the effects of the things you're talking about. The OL issues and corresponding rise in sacks, the shift toward more conservative play and the corresponding drop in YPA while completion percentage increases, the OL issues and the loss of Witten and Bryant and the corresponding red zone problems and drop in TD passes (and increase in QB TD runs), the correlation between sacks and fumbles, the absence of Elliott and corresponding drop in passer rating, etc. If you actually spent some time reading the post you're responding to, you'd see that it isn't worthless or driven by an agenda, but instead objective and driven by curiosity and and the desire to inform.
 
percyhoward said:
Prescott's 48 career starts divide into several different equally-sized samples, which is convenient for an apples-to-apples comparison of things like yards, attempts, sacks, etc. -- supporting cast and schedule obviously notwithstanding.

The more recent and the larger the sample, the more it means. His career numbers offer the largest sample, but include a lot of old information. His most recent game is fresh info, but it's just one game. So there's a happy medium, and here are three options from which you can decide.

12-game split
Games 1-12 (W 11 L 1)
243 of 358 67.9% 2974 yd 8.3 ypa 19 td 2 int 18 sk 108.6 (47 car 217 yd 4.6 ypc 5 td 8 fum)
Games 13-24 (W 6 L 6)
234 of 367 63.8% 2564 yd 7.0 ypa 21 td 7 int 18 sk 95.5 (35 car 246 yd 7.0 ypc 4 td 2 fum)
Games 25-36 (W 6 L 6)
220 of 351 62.7% 2253 yd 6.4 ypa 10 td 11 int 34 sk 77.5 (48 car 274 yd 5.7 ypc 3 td 4 fum )
Games 37-48 (W 8 L 4)
275 of 393 70.0% 3000 yd 7.6 ypa 16 td 6 int 41 sk 99.4 (57 car 220 yd 3.9 ypc 6 td 11 fum)

8-game split
Games 1-8 (W 7 L 1)
165 of 248 66.5% 2026 yd 8.2 ypa 12 td 2 int 11 sk 104.3 (31 car 129 yd 4.2 ypc 4 td 5 fum)
Games 9-16 (W 6 L 2)
146 of 212 68.9% 1653 yd 7.8 ypa 11 td 2 int 14 sk 105.3 (27 car 162 yd 6.0 ypc 2 td 4 fum)
Games 17-24 (W 4 L 4)
166 of 265 62.6% 1859 yd 7.0 ypa 17 td 5 int 11 sk 97.0 (24 car 172 yd 7.2 ypc 3 td 1 fum)
Games 25-32 (W 4 L 4)
148 of 234 63.2% 1567 yd 6.7 ypa 7 td 9 int 22 sk 76.6 (33 car 173 yd 5.2 ypc 3 td 3 fum)
Games 33-40 (W 4 L 4)
146 of 234 62.4% 1605 yd 6.9 ypa 9 td 4 int 24 sk 88.4 (41 car 252 yd 6.1 ypc 2 td 6 fum)
Games 41-48 (W 6 L 2)
201 of 276 72.8% 2081 yd 7.5 ypa 10 td 4 int 29 sk 100.2 (31 car 69 yd 2.2 ypc 4 td 6 fum)

6-game split
Games 1-6 (W 5 L 1)
125 of 182 68.7% 1486 yd 8.2 ypa 7 td 1 int 9 sk 103.9 (20 car 67 yd 3.4 ypc 3 td 4 fum)
Games 7-12 (W 6 L 0)
118 of 176 67.0% 1488 yd 8.5 ypa 12 td 1 int 9 sk 113.5 (27 car 150 yd 5.6 ypc 2 td 4 fum)
Games 13-18 (W 3 L 3)
116 of 178 65.2% 1281 yd 7.2 ypa 8 td 3 int 10 sk 94.3 (15 car 102 yd 8.5 ypc 1 td 1 fum)
Games 19-24 (W 3 L 3)
118 of 189 62.4% 1283 yd 6.8 ypa 13 td 4 int 8 sk 96.5 (20 car 144 yd 7.2 ypc 3 td 1 fum)
Games 25-30 (W 3 L 3)
109 of 173 63.0% 1174 yd 6.8 ypa 7 td 5 int 16 sk 84.3 (23 car 120 yd 5.2 ypc 2 td 3 fum)
Games 31-36 (W 3 L 3)
111 of 178 62.4% 1079 yd 6.1 ypa 3 td 6 int 18 sk 70.9 (25 car 154 yd 6.2 ypc 1 td 1 fum)
Games 37-42 (W 3 L 3)
121 of 184 65.8% 1432 yd 7.8 ypa 9 td 3 int 21 sk 98.8 (34 car 171 yd 5.0 ypc 3 td 7 fum)
Games 43-48 (W 5 L 1)
154 of 209 73.7% 1568 yd 7.5 ypa 7 td 3 int 20 sk 99.9 (23 car 49 yd 2.1 ypc 3 td 4 fum)

Career (W 31 L 17)
972 of 1469 66.2% 10791 yd 7.3 ypa 66 td 26 int 111 sk 95.4 (187 car 957 yd 5.1 ypc 18 td 25 fum)

Traditional passer rating is in bold, and it doesn't count sacks, QB runs, and fumbles. Here's how the top 10 rated passers this season compare to Dak in sacks, rushing, and total fumbles (not just lost fumbles)...

Prescott
52 sk 305 yd 6 td 12 fum
Top rated passers (avg)
34 sk 175 yd 2 td 7 fum

All data compiled from Pro Football Reference
Click to expand...
Looks like a ton of work
Appreciate the work put into it
 
FuzzyLumpkins said:
Dak still lacks consistent accuracy and struggles to read defenses which leads to him taking bad sacks.
Click to expand...
He should get better at reading defenses
Accuracy can be a product of bad technique which may be correctable
He’s slow to make decisions which I don’t think is all that fixable
He has poor pocket presence which to me is one of those you have or don’t skills
To me if Dak can fix what’s fixable, and protect the ball he can be a NFL QB but he will always have some deficiencies
 
percyhoward said:
If you look at the numbers, you can see the effects of the things you're talking about. The OL issues and corresponding rise in sacks, the shift toward more conservative play and the corresponding drop in YPA while completion percentage increases, the OL issues and the loss of Witten and Bryant and the corresponding red zone problems and drop in TD passes (and increase in QB TD runs), the correlation between sacks and fumbles, the absence of Elliott and corresponding drop in passer rating, etc. If you actually spent some time reading the post you're responding to, you'd see that it isn't worthless or driven by an agenda, but instead objective and driven by curiosity and and the desire to inform.
Click to expand...

No I do not! These are the Dak stats that I see that matter to me as someone who has spent their entire life following football!

1. Does not feel the pockets, always make the wrong repositioning choice
2. Panics once any pressure is felt and stops making reads, shift into instinct panic mode.
3. Cannot throw receivers open.
4. Cannot thread the needle.
5. The more open a receiver, is, the more he "thinks" about his throws and the less accurate he is.
6. He can only make 1-2 reads per play and they are slow reads.
7. He fails miserably to take that one of two key steps in the pocket to buy that extra 1-2 seconds. He just panics and flees. Defenses can easy scheme against him.
 
percyhoward said:
OL/receiving personnel has also played a huge role in the number of sacks.
Games 1-12: 18 sacks
Games 13-24: 18 sacks
Games 25-36: 34 sacks
Games 37-48 41 sacks
Click to expand...

As does him taking way too long on his first few reads while only noticing the pressure coming at him after he gives up on the reads. He lacks any feel for rhythm.

I keep hoping that he will speed up his reads but it has yet to happen. I've given up on him having consistent mechanics with these offensive coaches. Hiring a rookie QB coach was a poor decision in light of that.
 
erod said:
Dallas loses games because of Dak, but doesn't win games because of him. He's a passenger at best.
Click to expand...

He’s never won a game for us? Ever?

download.jpg
 
Cowboysfandarin said:
No I do not! These are the Dak stats that I see that matter to me as someone who has spent their entire life following football!

1. Does not feel the pockets, always make the wrong repositioning choice
2. Panics once any pressure is felt and stops making reads, shift into instinct panic mode.
3. Cannot throw receivers open.
4. Cannot thread the needle.
5. The more open a receiver, is, the more he "thinks" about his throws and the less accurate he is.
6. He can only make 1-2 reads per play and they are slow reads.
7. He fails miserably to take that one of two key steps in the pocket to buy that extra 1-2 seconds. He just panics and flees. Defenses can easy scheme against him.
Click to expand...
If you look at the numbers, you'll see high sack and fumble totals that support some of what you said there. You can also look at his passer rating in Witten and Bryant's last season, when they weren't the same players they had been in previous years, even in 2016. So you could say that, with Bryant and Witten past their prime, Prescott didn't make the other receivers better, for example.

Instead, you're responding as if the OP was an endorsement of Prescott, which tells me you didn't read it. Not that it's a crime to comment on the OP without reading it. I've done it before.
 
percyhoward said:
If you look at the numbers, you'll see high sack and fumble totals that support some of what you said there. You can also look at his passer rating in Witten and Bryant's last season, when they weren't the same players they had been in previous years, even in 2016. So you could say that, with Bryant and Witten past their prime, Prescott didn't make the other receivers better, for example.

Instead, you're responding as if the OP was an endorsement of Prescott, which tells me you didn't read it. Not that it's a crime to comment on the OP without reading it. I've done it before.
Click to expand...
You cannot just blame sacks on the O-line. Over half of all sacks in the league fall on the QB, stepping into it, or freezing up when one step either way avoids it. If you watch all of Daks sacks, like 90% of them are on him. 100% on him. He either runs into it, freezes up, holds the ball way, way too long, or runs backwards, or directly to the sideline into waiting defenders. All the while he stops making reads downfield and has shifted purely into "survival" mode. Romo, always feel the pocket and usually made the correct steps WHILE STILL MAKING READS DOWNFIELD. That is the key difference between the two.
 
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