Trends in Dak's 48 Career Starts

[sunalsorises]

I’m too lazy to do it but I wonder what Dak’s stats are compared to Vince Young and his run with the Titans. Vince Young also had a favorable win/loss record but for some reason didn’t seem to get much respect as a starting caliber QB. I realize he had a ten-cent brain and I am not comparing Vince as a person to Dak as a person. I’m just interested in how the stats look.

 

[Sydla]

As does him taking way too long on his first few reads while only noticing the pressure coming at him after he gives up on the reads. He lacks any feel for rhythm.

I keep hoping that he will speed up his reads but it has yet to happen. I've given up on him having consistent mechanics with these offensive coaches. Hiring a rookie QB coach was a poor decision in light of that.

I will never understand the Moore hiring. Truly inept decision by management here and that includes Garrett.

His pocket awareness seems to have regressed. There have been quite a few times where he’s felt edge pressure and instead of stepping up into a clean pocket, he essentially backs into a sack.

 

[Jarv]

Weeden also had good stats, except for winning percentage!

 

[Idgit]

Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.

This is code for “I don’t know how to interpret this, so I’m not going to try.”

Stats are an attempt to measure something so it can be compared. Measurements can be wrong, but they aren’t always and they aren’t when the person measuring knows what he’s doing. When the later is the case, they make eye ball tests completely irrelevant.

 

[Rockport]

ANOTHER crap on Dak thread. Whether the OP intended it or not.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Prescott's 48 career starts divide into several different equally-sized samples, which is convenient for an apples-to-apples comparison of things like yards, attempts, sacks, etc. -- supporting cast and schedule obviously notwithstanding.

The more recent and the larger the sample, the more it means. His career numbers offer the largest sample, but include a lot of old information. His most recent game is fresh info, but it's just one game. So there's a happy medium, and here are three options from which you can decide.

12-game split
Games 1-12 (W 11 L 1)
243 of 358 67.9% 2974 yd 8.3 ypa 19 td 2 int 18 sk 108.6 (47 car 217 yd 4.6 ypc 5 td 8 fum)
Games 13-24 (W 6 L 6)
234 of 367 63.8% 2564 yd 7.0 ypa 21 td 7 int 18 sk 95.5 (35 car 246 yd 7.0 ypc 4 td 2 fum)
Games 25-36 (W 6 L 6)
220 of 351 62.7% 2253 yd 6.4 ypa 10 td 11 int 34 sk 77.5 (48 car 274 yd 5.7 ypc 3 td 4 fum )
Games 37-48 (W 8 L 4)
275 of 393 70.0% 3000 yd 7.6 ypa 16 td 6 int 41 sk 99.4 (57 car 220 yd 3.9 ypc 6 td 11 fum)

8-game split
Games 1-8 (W 7 L 1)
165 of 248 66.5% 2026 yd 8.2 ypa 12 td 2 int 11 sk 104.3 (31 car 129 yd 4.2 ypc 4 td 5 fum)
Games 9-16 (W 6 L 2)
146 of 212 68.9% 1653 yd 7.8 ypa 11 td 2 int 14 sk 105.3 (27 car 162 yd 6.0 ypc 2 td 4 fum)
Games 17-24 (W 4 L 4)
166 of 265 62.6% 1859 yd 7.0 ypa 17 td 5 int 11 sk 97.0 (24 car 172 yd 7.2 ypc 3 td 1 fum)
Games 25-32 (W 4 L 4)
148 of 234 63.2% 1567 yd 6.7 ypa 7 td 9 int 22 sk 76.6 (33 car 173 yd 5.2 ypc 3 td 3 fum)
Games 33-40 (W 4 L 4)
146 of 234 62.4% 1605 yd 6.9 ypa 9 td 4 int 24 sk 88.4 (41 car 252 yd 6.1 ypc 2 td 6 fum)
Games 41-48 (W 6 L 2)
201 of 276 72.8% 2081 yd 7.5 ypa 10 td 4 int 29 sk 100.2 (31 car 69 yd 2.2 ypc 4 td 6 fum)

6-game split
Games 1-6 (W 5 L 1)
125 of 182 68.7% 1486 yd 8.2 ypa 7 td 1 int 9 sk 103.9 (20 car 67 yd 3.4 ypc 3 td 4 fum)
Games 7-12 (W 6 L 0)
118 of 176 67.0% 1488 yd 8.5 ypa 12 td 1 int 9 sk 113.5 (27 car 150 yd 5.6 ypc 2 td 4 fum)
Games 13-18 (W 3 L 3)
116 of 178 65.2% 1281 yd 7.2 ypa 8 td 3 int 10 sk 94.3 (15 car 102 yd 8.5 ypc 1 td 1 fum)
Games 19-24 (W 3 L 3)
118 of 189 62.4% 1283 yd 6.8 ypa 13 td 4 int 8 sk 96.5 (20 car 144 yd 7.2 ypc 3 td 1 fum)
Games 25-30 (W 3 L 3)
109 of 173 63.0% 1174 yd 6.8 ypa 7 td 5 int 16 sk 84.3 (23 car 120 yd 5.2 ypc 2 td 3 fum)
Games 31-36 (W 3 L 3)
111 of 178 62.4% 1079 yd 6.1 ypa 3 td 6 int 18 sk 70.9 (25 car 154 yd 6.2 ypc 1 td 1 fum)
Games 37-42 (W 3 L 3)
121 of 184 65.8% 1432 yd 7.8 ypa 9 td 3 int 21 sk 98.8 (34 car 171 yd 5.0 ypc 3 td 7 fum)
Games 43-48 (W 5 L 1)
154 of 209 73.7% 1568 yd 7.5 ypa 7 td 3 int 20 sk 99.9 (23 car 49 yd 2.1 ypc 3 td 4 fum)

Career (W 31 L 17)
972 of 1469 66.2% 10791 yd 7.3 ypa 66 td 26 int 111 sk 95.4 (187 car 957 yd 5.1 ypc 18 td 25 fum)

Traditional passer rating is in bold, and it doesn't count sacks, QB runs, and fumbles. Here's how the top 10 rated passers this season compare to Dak in sacks, rushing, and total fumbles (not just lost fumbles)...

Prescott
52 sk 305 yd 6 td 12 fum
Top rated passers (avg)
34 sk 175 yd 2 td 7 fum

All data compiled from Pro Football Reference

It's interesting how Dak's season QB rating has recovered while his season QBR has continued to plunge.

QBR
2016 79
2017 70
2018 54

Since the break average QBR has been 54.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/2577417/dak-prescott

 

[CWR]

If you look at the numbers, you can see the effects of the things you're talking about. The OL issues and corresponding rise in sacks, the shift toward more conservative play and the corresponding drop in YPA while completion percentage increases, the OL issues and the loss of Witten and Bryant and the corresponding red zone problems and drop in TD passes (and increase in QB TD runs), the correlation between sacks and fumbles, the absence of Elliott and corresponding drop in passer rating, etc. If you actually spent some time reading the post you're responding to, you'd see that it isn't worthless or driven by an agenda, but instead objective and driven by curiosity and and the desire to inform.

Thanks for posting, please ignore the people on here that dont appreciate the work you put in.

 

[Little Jr]

Stats are all but worthless and most often isolated to fit an agenda. As a fan watching the game of football and even some coaching experience myself for over 40 years, I just know what I see and feel about any player. I do not like what I see and feel about Dak as this teams starting QB. He lacks basic fundamental skills at a high level you need to be a quality starting NFL QB. Stats are piggy-backed by other factions of the game around you as a QB. O-line play, your running balance, the defense, your receiving core, the overall scheme.... etc, etc etc. Do you have a player like "Zeke" who is great to run after a simple check down pass etc. Dak plays in a system and that system is full of SB caliber players, and he is not one of them. They make up for him, for now. Dak will never make up for other lacking things around him like a Romo etc could do.....They make up stats for him. We watch him play and see his lacking components.

The good old "I watch the game". Lol

Coaches look at stats.

 

[percyhoward]

Thanks for posting, please ignore the people on here that dont appreciate the work you put in.

Thanks, and I will try.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Dude!!! Where have you been Fuzz??

Lurking a bit here and there. Too much fixation on the meaningless, trolling, or both around here for me to have been interested in commenting.

I don't always agree with @percyhoward but he does provide thoughtful discussion.

 

[bayeslife]

Lurking a bit here and there. Too much fixation on the meaningless, trolling, or both around here for me to have been interested in commenting.

I don't always agree with @percyhoward but he does provide thoughtful discussion.

Off topic, but since you’re here: how big was your grin watching Jaylon Smith scoop and score while outracing everyone on the field?

To percy: thanks for the content!

 

[Cowboysfandarin]

The good old "I watch the game". Lol

Coaches look at stats.

Actually they don't like you'd think. Stats cherry picked to make a point are worthless. Stats against different eras are worthless....Coaches observe the flow of play more than stats. Coaches also create and keep stats of their own. They literally watch each play from full field view probably 30-50 times each and break down and score each player on every play of the game. From fundamentals to what was missed etc.

 

[percyhoward]

It's interesting how Dak's season QB rating has recovered while his season QBR has continued to plunge.

QBR
2016 79
2017 70
2018 54

Since the break average QBR has been 54.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/2577417/dak-prescott

ESPN's stat is EPA-based, so the fumbles and sacks bring down the numbers. If you turn it over and/or get sacked a lot, it may not affect your passing numbers, but it effects your team's expected points. In 2016, his passing was only a little better, but he wasn't getting sacked or fumbling it away as often, so it didn't bring down his QBR.

It comes down to how much of the blame you want to give the QB for sacks and fumbles. Total QBR/EPA doesn't make any distinction, passer rating does. The truth is in the middle. In the last 12 games, Prescott ranks an average of 16th according to ESPN's metric, and 11th according to passer rating. That puts him in the 12th-15th range, depending on how much of the increase in sacks you want to attribute to the QB.

 

[visionary]

I will never understand the Moore hiring. Truly inept decision by management here and that includes Garrett.

His pocket awareness seems to have regressed. There have been quite a few times where he’s felt edge pressure and instead of stepping up into a clean pocket, he essentially backs into a sack.

Moore is yet another reflection of the nepotism rampant on this team

 

[percyhoward]

I’m too lazy to do it but I wonder what Dak’s stats are compared to Vince Young and his run with the Titans. Vince Young also had a favorable win/loss record but for some reason didn’t seem to get much respect as a starting caliber QB. I realize he had a ten-cent brain and I am not comparing Vince as a person to Dak as a person. I’m just interested in how the stats look.

Prescott's first 48 games
972 of 1469 66.2% 10791 yd 7.3 ypa 66 td 26 int 111 sk 95.4 (187 car 957 yd 5.1 ypc 18 td 25 fum)
Young's first 48 games
626 of 1077 58.1% 7182 yd 6.7 ypa 35 td 41 int 67 sk 73.3 (251 car 1503 yd 5.2 ypc 12 td 13 fum)

Add about 7 points to Young's rating for era difference.

 

[percyhoward]

Stats cherry picked to make a point are worthless.

You can always read the stats to see if they were cherry-picked. In fact, that's the only way to know.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Off topic, but since you’re here: how big was your grin watching Jaylon Smith scoop and score while outracing everyone on the field?

To percy: thanks for the content!

I was up on my feet, hands in the air, screaming the whole way.

 

[Bluefin]

I will never understand the Moore hiring.

Can't say for certain, but the off-season hiring of offensive assistant coaches Kellen Moore (QB), Sanjay Lal (WR) and Paul Alexander (OL) were all reportedly based upon the wishes of offensive coordinator Scott Linehan.

Moore is a well-known favorite of Linehan.

His pocket awareness seems to have regressed. There have been quite a few times where he’s felt edge pressure and instead of stepping up into a clean pocket, he essentially backs into a sack.

It's a definite bad habit and I've heard Dak Prescott mention being upset with not stepping up in the pocket and causing a sack by drifting backwards after a game.

All players have areas of strength and weakness.

Dak seems like the type who will work hard to get better, though some of the burden also falls on the coaches who are teaching. Getting better play from the OL and skill positions will also help, as will possibly getting more turnovers on defense and an occasional long kick or punt return (they are not illegal) to set up a short field.

I'm not saying everyone around Dak has to play perfectly, there's just an obvious correlation with pass protection, an effective running game and receivers creating separation.

Jason Garrett will say when asked that Dak has to continue improving in every area of his game, all the players do.

Just looking at QB rating, Dak had a 100+ rating in 12 of 16 games as a rookie in 2016 (excluded reg season finale and included playoff game). That's 75% and I give loads of credit to the supporting cast for it, but that's crazy play for a rookie signal caller in the NFL.

In 2017, things didn't start as well, Dak had a 100+ rating in 5 of 16 games (31%), but 4 of them occurred in the first 8 games (50%) before the burning of Atlanta. He only had 1 such game in the last 8 last year (13%).

In 2018, Dak had a 100+ rating in 7 of 15 games (46%), with only 2 in the first 8 games (25%), followed by 5 of the last 7 (71%). Amari Cooper played in the eighth game and the seven that followed.

The first 24 games were largely good with some great, followed by an ugly 16 game stretch with few bright spots, and a rebound over the last 7 games.

 

[Little Jr]

Actually they don't like you'd think. Stats cherry picked to make a point are worthless. Stats against different eras are worthless....Coaches observe the flow of play more than stats. Coaches also create and keep stats of their own. They literally watch each play from full field view probably 30-50 times each and break down and score each player on every play of the game. From fundamentals to what was missed etc.

Like I think? And I never said they dont watch film. But to act like they don't keep up with stats is false. Analytics is a big part of sports, including football. Like you said, they create and keep up then stats as well as other analytics.

 

[Bob-Lillys-War]

Garrett's 9th starting QB , but hey ... lets keep blaming the QB .