Odds Maker: Dallas is going to get Slaughtered

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Given all the variables at play, if the reasonable accuracy rate is 40% (using your numbers, which I don't doubt even though you didn't source them), that seems pretty remarkable.

That 40% is just within a TD of being accurate. The point here is that most lines are way off from what really ends up happening.

 

[Bob-Lillys-War]

I just spoke to an odds maker and he advised me "Dallas is getting slaughtered." I'm trying to wonder "what do these people know that we don't know?"

"The Rams have yet to win a postseason game under coach Sean McVay's leadership, but based on the opening betting lines from Las Vegas that could be about to change. The opening betting line had the gave the Rams a seven-point spread with an over/under of 49 points, while SportsLine had the home team coming away with a 30-21 win."

Two Words : Jason Garrett .

 

[CCBoy]

That's it exactly! I'm hopeful and optimistic but I won't be surprised either way. For now, I'm really just enjoying the ride and glad it's lasted another week. Hopefully, I will be saying the same thing next week as well

Give this team of Cowboys a final game where they can put all of their hearts into a single game...and they well may move on with real sights for a Lombardi. Give them the chance!

Beat the Rams!!

 

[Sarge]

Rubbish. If the odds makers truly felt it was going to be a blowout, the spread would be 17, not 7. Can’t be both ways, makes zero sense.

 

[basilhayden]

We are gonna get beat 34-3.
Oh wait. That loss has already been used....

 

[ksadler1]

What numbers will the odds makers be wearing during the game?

 

[Crown Royal]

Why would you have deep expectations in 2009? That team just caught fire the last 3 weeks and beat the only team they could have in the Eagles wild card round. Vikings were light years ahead of us that year.

That was an 11-5 team with a generally excellent defense (best pass rush we've had in 20 years, Newman, Scandrick and Jenkins were playing really well in the secondary. The offense had discovered a run game in Marion Barber and a great new weapon in sMiles Austin. After a two game losing streak to the Giants and Chargers, they went into NOLA and beat the future Super BOwl champs in convincing fashion, and had swept the Eagles (who had, at the time, been a really hard opponent for years. We didn't know then the decline they were in).

There was a lot to be excited about going into those playoffs. Didn't expect the OL to completely crumble in the game against the vikings.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

That was an 11-5 team with a generally excellent defense (best pass rush we've had in 20 years, Newman, Scandrick and Jenkins were playing really well in the secondary. The offense had discovered a run game in Marion Barber and a great new weapon in sMiles Austin. After a two game losing streak to the Giants and Chargers, they went into NOLA and beat the future Super BOwl champs in convincing fashion, and had swept the Eagles (who had, at the time, been a really hard opponent for years. We didn't know then the decline they were in).

There was a lot to be excited about going into those playoffs. Didn't expect the OL to completely crumble in the game against the vikings.

And the following year we were picked to get into the SB. A lot of people thought the Cowboys were on there way up then.

 

[Crown Royal]

And the following year we were picked to get into the SB. A lot of people thought the Cowboys were on there way up then.

Yep. It was an ugly defeat. In retrospect we should have
a) recognized that the OL needed more pieces. That was obvious, but also:
b) Minnesota was able to scorch the secondary, which continued into 2010
c) That 2009 draft class is the worst class since the front office began really changing in 2003. Woof.

 

[LovinItAll]

FWIW, 538 has the Rams -4.5 with a Rams win probablility of 66%, so we're 2:1 underdogs per them.

 

[Blackrain]

The home teams were favored last week and 3 of 4 lost. Calculating odds is based on everything continuing as it has been.

There is a lot that can happen in games regardless of the psychic predictions. For example, what happens if Goff gets injured on the first play? Or Gurley re-injuries his knee?

Right now, I can see the Cowboys losing or winning, but as a fan, I really am not stressed about it. I am enjoying the journey and will do so until it stops regardless of what everyone says.

Couldn't agree more they have already exceeded my expectations for the year and I am enjoying the ride watching our young team mature before our eyes . They have already taken a step forward by winning a playoff game .

Rams are favored but on any given Sunday anything can happen . Seahawks didn't expect to lose there kicker . Bears didn't expect there's to hit the post . That's why the games are played so Im going to sit back and enjoy

 

[Doomsday]

The Rams may have peaked too early, guess we will find out on Saturday.

 

[SackMaster]

They don't trust Dak against the Rams pass rush. Just saying.

Without Aaron Donald, who has HALF of their sacks (20.5 of 41), their passrush is not scary at all. No one else has more than 4.5 sacks (Suh).

In comparison, when Ware had 20 sacks in 2008, the team had 59.

IMO, keep Donald in check, which is easier said than done, you can neutralize their passrush.

 

[dfense]

Cowboys have no chance. There, I said it. Now they will probably win.

 

[OmerV]

All I'm seeing is that the Cowboys are 7 point underdogs. That's a fair sized spread, but far from a "slaughter".

 

[DFWJC]

The Rams have the 19th ranked defense and are horrible vs the run.
They should be one of the easier playoff matchups (and environment) that a Dallas offense has faced in a decade.
The only one for sure easier was the 22nd ranked 2016 Green Bay defense with the game being played in Dallas.
Maybe the 11th ranked Philly defense in 2009...in Dallas. Or the 16th ranked Seattle D this year, also in Dallas, were slightly easier. Hard to say.
But other than that, all the other matchups and environments have been far tougher
This offense should be ok.

Now the Rams 2nd ranked offense? That's another story altogether.
I think our D just might be up the challenge though.

 

[Colombiacowboy]

I don’t get how they are coming up with the Rams being favored by 7.

The matchups favor us enough that even if you really liked the Rams I would think it would be no more then 3.5.

If we show up and run all over them then they don’t have a very good chance of beating us.

Also, how can they trust Goff against our pass rush?

Which match-ups favor us?

Offense has to go the Rams. Gurley is close enough to Zeke to make that a slight edge for the Rams.
Defense is probably a wash, although the Rams corners are better than ours, and the Rams have more sacks.
Special Teams I think has to go to the Rams as well.
Coaching, in my opinion, also goes to the Rams.

We might be able to win a few individual match ups, but I am not so sure that we would be favored in very many of those. The Peters/Cooper match-up should be interesting given the tendency to play man coverage.

 

[CATCH17]

Which match-ups favor us?

Offense has to go the Rams. Gurley is close enough to Zeke to make that a slight edge for the Rams.
Defense is probably a wash, although the Rams corners are better than ours, and the Rams have more sacks.
Special Teams I think has to go to the Rams as well.
Coaching, in my opinion, also goes to the Rams.

We might be able to win a few individual match ups, but I am not so sure that we would be favored in very many of those. The Peters/Cooper match-up should be interesting given the tendency to play man coverage.

They are bad against the run. We have the leagues leading rusher.

Regardless of how you feel about Gurley vs Zeke it doesn’t matter when Gurley has to face our defense and we get to face theirs.

Defense is definitely not a wash. They haven’t played good defense this season.

Goff is stuck in the pocket and our pass rush gets to the QB fast. So I believe we can force Goff into some bad decisions.

I’ll give them the coaching edge but we face that problem every week. Our style of football takes it out of the coaches hands and our will to win is what normally carries us.


Also, even though we have to travel that stadium will be in favor of Dallas.

Basically we have answers to all the problems they present and they have question marks as to how they are going to stop what we do.

 

[Colombiacowboy]

They are bad against the run.


. They haven’t played good defense this season.


Basically we have answers to all the problems they present and they have question marks as to how they are going to stop what we do.

If they are bad against the run and haven't played good defense this season, how does that explain their 13-3 record.
I like your optimism, but if we have all the answers, I suppose there is no reason to play the game.

The Rams are an excellent football team. To take them lightly or believe that our team is categorically better based on a set of statistics would be unwise.

 

[CATCH17]

If they are bad against the run and haven't played good defense this season, how does that explain their 13-3 record.
I like your optimism, but if we have all the answers, I suppose there is no reason to play the game.

The Rams are an excellent football team. To take them lightly or believe that our team is categorically better based on a set of statistics would be unwise.

You don’t rank towards the bottom in defense and then give defense credit for them being 13-3.


Dallas is good because of our defense and run game.


The Rams are good because of their offense.


They are a good team but Dallas will not participate in the style of football they want to play.

We will run the ball with Zeke and play high level defense when they do have the ball.