PFF ranks Dak's accuracy

[percyhoward]

Passer rating isn't what we're debating here. Just to be illustrative if you completed 1 of 3 downfield balls but it went 60 yards for a td your have a great passer rating but you could have thrown 0, 1, 2 or 3 accurate passes and/or 0, 1, 2, or 3 catchable passes as your OP distinguishes.

Also really hate how 15 yards is now a "deep throw." feel like this began just in the last 2 years. Used to be 20. Soon it'll be 10.

Well, technically air yards per attempt isn't what the thread was about, but it's relevant to the topic, as is passer rating. The low air yards per attempt reflect an offensive philosophy of slowing down the game with runs and short passes, and then not attacking deep until the fourth quarter. So it's more of an "offensive style" issue than an accuracy issue on deeper throws.

 

[Gangsta Spanksta]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

thanks for posting this, there've been people around here who have started trying to pretend that Dak is an accurate quarterback. Not really, my goal to put him down, but when people post stupid delusional things like that he is accurate, you feel you have to say something.

 

[blumayne38]

Would we consider the game winning pass to cooper against the eagles as accurate? If the WR has to extend or make a "good catch" then more likely the WR is making the QB look better then he is really. I have seen enough bad throws by Dak to make the judgment that he isn't the most accurate QB. Why people seem to cherry pick stats to prove otherwise is beyond me. Most of that stuff flys over my head I know what I see.

 

[blumayne38]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

To me it's pretty simple, no grey area if it's not on the numbers it's not accurate.

 

[Gangsta Spanksta]

A lot of what people call the "eye test" is really their selective memory, filtered though their bias, and limited to only the games they've seen.

but then the same would be true about such things as the "IT" Factor.

 

[Gangsta Spanksta]

Well, technically air yards per attempt isn't what the thread was about, but it's relevant to the topic, as is passer rating. The low air yards per attempt reflect an offensive philosophy of slowing down the game with runs and short passes, and then not attacking deep until the fourth quarter. So it's more of an "offensive style" issue than an accuracy issue on deeper throws.

Well it might be an "offensive style" issue, or it could be a "desperation time" issue where you are forced to throw it deep in the 4th quarter.

 

[percyhoward]

but then the same would be true about such things as the "IT" Factor.

Yeah, they're both just lazy, dumb sales pitches really.

 

[punchnjudy]

It's also pretty bad given that Dak was bottom 10 in air yards per attempt that he doesn't rank higher. If I'm not consistently throwing the ball down field I should be accurate AND throwing catchsble balls.

I wondered whether their rankings were automatically based on percentages or if there was any judgement based on distance and route. At similar distances, hitting a receiver in stride on a vertical route requires more touch than connecting on a comeback route and obviously greater distances are more difficult.

 

[Number1]

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

that's an interesting observation - but "watched" every pass, maybe, but I'll lay odds they used imaging software

even so let's not forget so called pros watch tape on games for a living all the time ... and Lynch goes 3rd in the draft

what I saw this season from Dak was a real choppy first half of the season, expected with new starting players at FB, TE, WR, LG, and C. That's not easy to do, 5 new starters (and 6 new backups) and win.

by mid season it had largely gelled and they became an O that found ways to win

Dak's CMP% went from 62.9 to 71.6 ....while taking 28 sacks in first 8 games, and 28 in last 8 ... so any stat only tells so much of a story

 

[Gangsta Spanksta]

.

Hence the problem with most of the knuckle heads digging into their position like a tick on a dog.

Too bad they won't acknowledge that he is not as bad as the haters say he is but he is also not as good as the Dak lovers think he is either.

Which also means we have to have a bunch of these ticks starting threads to argue the same points over and over with little to no chance of changing other ticks opinions on the matter.

True that. He is good enough to win you a wildcard game. He proved as much this year. Is he good enough to get past the divisional round? I'd feel more comfortable if he was more accurate there.

 

[Gangsta Spanksta]

Beasley was horribly out of position on the route. An atrocious route design to begin with by the coach. And a equally horrendous play call by the former coordinator, all things Dak managed to overcome to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Or so I've heard.

Sounds like that would come out of the mouth of one of the Dak Lovers though. I mean everyone else did a bad job, but Dak was great there, kind of thing....

 

[Kaiser]

Too bad they won't acknowledge that he is not as bad as the haters say he is but he is also not as good as the Dak lovers think he is either.

I would put an asterisk on that because I think a lot of these accuracy stats are driven by how much time Dak has to throw. Any QB's accuracy (and stats) are impacted by how much time he has in the pocket - but with Dak that factor is exaggerated.

I would change your comment slightly to say Dak with tons of time to throw isn't as good as the team makes him look but when he has no time or receivers (end of 2017 and beginning of 2018) he is better than the team makes him look.

 

[kskboys]

Right, or wrong: you are a scholar and a gentleman.

Hey, no need for name calling!!!!!!

 

[Gangsta Spanksta]

Hey, no need for name calling!!!!!!

Yeah! We're football fans, not gentlemen >.>

 

[DallasEast]

It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch.

lol. PFF calls it a frame. I call it a receiver's catch radius. It would look more like a circle if a receiver moves his arms fully in a clockwise or counter-clockwise motion starting and ending above his head--not like a square or 'frame'. I like my description better.

 

[Vtwin]

Yeah, they're both just lazy, dumb sales pitches really.

Aren't these accuracy stats compiled from the eye tests of those that compiled them?

 

[kskboys]

Hence the problem with most of the knuckle heads digging into their position like a tick on a dog.

Too bad they won't acknowledge that he is not as bad as the haters say he is but he is also not as good as the Dak lovers think he is either.

Which also means we have to have a bunch of these ticks starting threads to argue the same points over and over with little to no chance of changing other ticks opinions on the matter.

X a few gadzillions!!!!!

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Well, technically air yards per attempt isn't what the thread was about, but it's relevant to the topic, as is passer rating. The low air yards per attempt reflect an offensive philosophy of slowing down the game with runs and short passes, and then not attacking deep until the fourth quarter. So it's more of an "offensive style" issue than an accuracy issue on deeper throws.

Well I think the offensive philosophy is tied to the qb. For instance nobody confused Romo in this same offense as someone who dink and dunked.

But whatever the reason with a short pass based offense you'd expect Dak to be throwing MORE "accurate" and "catchable" balls because the degree of difficulty is lower.

 

[CCBoy]

I'm not even sure there's a real connection between "accuracy" and YAC. As in the scenario described by another poster, a receiver could slow down or even stop, making the pass "accurate," but giving the defender a chance to catch up, thus sacrificing YAC. Then there are all the other factors that affect YAC. For example, a receiver with 3 yards of separation would expect to get as much or more YAC on an "inaccurate" completion as a receiver with 1 yard of separation would get with a more accurate pass. Also, receivers who are targeted near the line of scrimmage inevitably get more YAC than receivers who are targeted 10 yards deep, regardless of the accuracy of the throw.

This should transition to the statistics you are pointing towards:

Since the average offensive passing play adds 0.25 in expected points where the average run just adds 0.06 expected points, it makes sense the Dallas Cowboys prioritize stopping the pass over the run. That would prioritize the offensive play selections as well. (as you are demonstrating for the Cowboys).

https://sportdfw.com/2019/02/15/the-dallas-cowboys-must-up-grade-this-position-on-the-d-line/

 

[starcity214]

Well, technically air yards per attempt isn't what the thread was about, but it's relevant to the topic, as is passer rating. The low air yards per attempt reflect an offensive philosophy of slowing down the game with runs and short passes, and then not attacking deep until the fourth quarter. So it's more of an "offensive style" issue than an accuracy issue on deeper throws.

So you mean Linehan was Dak's coordinator in College too?

Look at his draft profile it clearly says that Dak's completion percentage went up because of his constant use of checkdowns.

This is who Dak is.

Linehan made his name off the deep passing game in Detroit with Stafford.