PFF ranks Dak's accuracy

[acr731]

Romo and Dez made a living on catchable but intentionally 'inaccurate' throws. Back shoulder throws, jump throws, going to the ground in traffic.

Some might call that 'knowing your receiver and his tendencies'. Throw it where you think he can possibly make a play rather than tossing it where he doesn't have a chance in hell. Calvin Johnson is a prime example - toss it high. He towered over almost every defender and almost made every catch. Its a shame Detroit ruined his career like they did with Barry Sanders.

 

[percyhoward]

Yeah the magnitude of the difference does matter. Being accurate and having it matter aren't the same thing though. If Dak is in the top 10 for YAC then catchable would appear good enough functionally on the field even if technically other are more accurate.

Trying to think of other metrics that would be affected by accurate versus catchable.

I'm not even sure there's a real connection between "accuracy" and YAC. As in the scenario described by another poster, a receiver could slow down or even stop, making the pass "accurate," but giving the defender a chance to catch up, thus sacrificing YAC. Then there are all the other factors that affect YAC. For example, a receiver with 3 yards of separation would expect to get as much or more YAC on an "inaccurate" completion as a receiver with 1 yard of separation would get with a more accurate pass. Also, receivers who are targeted near the line of scrimmage inevitably get more YAC than receivers who are targeted 10 yards deep, regardless of the accuracy of the throw.

 

[Beaker42]

But then again he’s being rated against other QBs who all make those passes too.

And therein lies the FO’s conundrum - do you give a QB top-10 QB pay for bottom-10 accuracy.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

And therein lies the FO’s conundrum - do you give a QB top-10 QB pay for bottom-10 accuracy.

Do you have a better QB to replace him with today? Or even next year at this time? It is what it is.

 

[percyhoward]

I believe that's the scenario @percyhoward was referring to, and I was thinking about that when I made my comment, but I didn't mention it because sometimes it's intentional and sometimes it's just not an accurate throw. All in all, accuracy is an extremely difficult stat to definitively record. It's one of the few things in which the eye test probably tells you just as much as any stat can.

A lot of what people call the "eye test" is really their selective memory, filtered though their bias, and limited to only the games they've seen.

 

[TwentyOne]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

i am surprised he is ranked that high.
considered him at last place out of all college qbs.

 

[Beaker42]

Do you have a better QB to replace him with today? Or even next year at this time? It is what it is.

I know. In all actuality, after 3 seasons as a starter, he’s still a JAG.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

To me, catchable means a lot more than accurate.

It's also pretty bad given that Dak was bottom 10 in air yards per attempt that he doesn't rank higher. If I'm not consistently throwing the ball down field I should be accurate AND throwing catchsble balls.

 

[Them]

...at the moment I'm not worried about Dak's accuracy to much... What did he have, over 50 sacks?...some on him I know...but he should be improving his foot
work , his accuracy, and his pocket play with better O-line play, and route running by his wide-outs ...not to mention better offensive play calling. My point is... so far Dak has won over 67% of his games in the last 3 seasons...that's not to shabby!...He wins games...now, he and the rest of the team need to win more playoff games.

 

[sbark]

So when Dak is about to get killed because the line crumbles on one of their league leading sacks and he has to rush the throw because of pressure and its off target is that considered an "inaccurate pass"?

If Gallup hesitates on his route because he is a rookie and thats what rookies do and the ball is overthrown because of that, is that also considered an "inaccurate pass"?

Also for a comparison, what was he ranked in accuracy in 2016 when he had a good Oline in front of him and better pass catchers?

What was his accuracy ranking the last 8 games of 2018 as compared to the first 8?

And how about giving us the entire list so we can judge for ourselves?

I'd venture every qb in the study had "those instances", they ave out in the whole study between them to some degree equally.....results then remain the same

The # of sacks....there again a good % were of his own doing...not taking the 1st option, and holding the ball, then not feeling the rush etc.....again equalizing results

 

[Blackrain]

Im really confused now was the diving TD to Beasley a great pass or a horribly inaccurate uncatchable ball LOL

 

[pansophy]

I'm not even sure there's a real connection between "accuracy" and YAC. As in the scenario described by another poster, a receiver could slow down or even stop, making the pass "accurate," but giving the defender a chance to catch up, thus sacrificing YAC. Then there are all the other factors that affect YAC. For example, a receiver with 3 yards of separation would expect to get as much or more YAC on an "inaccurate" completion as a receiver with 1 yard of separation would get with a more accurate pass. Also, receivers who are targeted near the line of scrimmage inevitably get more YAC than receivers who are targeted 10 yards deep, regardless of the accuracy of the throw.

Maybe, but then accuracy becomes like completion percentage in terms of relevance if it doesn't relate to anything that matters. Might as well just go back to passer rating and assume that all these issues named here are reconciled in those stats.

 

[buybuydandavis]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

Do they have a stat for misses on wide open WRs?

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Hmmm....seems like everything with Dak have two different angles. Just enough to feed BOTH sides.....lol

Hence the problem with most of the knuckle heads digging into their position like a tick on a dog.

Too bad they won't acknowledge that he is not as bad as the haters say he is but he is also not as good as the Dak lovers think he is either.

Which also means we have to have a bunch of these ticks starting threads to argue the same points over and over with little to no chance of changing other ticks opinions on the matter.

 

[Runwildboys]

Im really confused now was the diving TD to Beasley a great pass or a horribly inaccurate uncatchable ball LOL

He caught it, so it wasn't uncatchable...but I'm sure it graded out as inaccurate.

 

[Vtwin]

Im really confused now was the diving TD to Beasley a great pass or a horribly inaccurate uncatchable ball LOL

Yes

 

[dfense]

Im really confused now was the diving TD to Beasley a great pass or a horribly inaccurate uncatchable ball LOL

Beasley was horribly out of position on the route. An atrocious route design to begin with by the coach. And a equally horrendous play call by the former coordinator, all things Dak managed to overcome to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Or so I've heard.

 

[percyhoward]

It's also pretty bad given that Dak was bottom 10 in air yards per attempt that he doesn't rank higher. If I'm not consistently throwing the ball down field I should be accurate AND throwing catchsble balls.

It's not like Prescott was inaccurate on the deeper throws, if that's what you're implying. His 106.8 passer rating on 15+yard targets ranked 6th in 2018.

 

[percyhoward]

Do they have a stat for misses on wide open WRs?

That information is actually in the screenshot in the tweet I posted earlier in the thread. PFF says he ranked 31st (out of 35) when the receiver was what they call "open," 9th when the receiver had a step of separation, and 11th when separation was less than a step.

And that's "accurate" throws, as opposed to "catchable."

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It's not like Prescott was inaccurate on the deeper throws, if that's what you're implying. His 106.8 passer rating on 15+yard targets ranked 6th in 2018.

Passer rating isn't what we're debating here. Just to be illustrative if you completed 1 of 3 downfield balls but it went 60 yards for a td your have a great passer rating but you could have thrown 0, 1, 2 or 3 accurate passes and/or 0, 1, 2, or 3 catchable passes as your OP distinguishes.

Also really hate how 15 yards is now a "deep throw." feel like this began just in the last 2 years. Used to be 20. Soon it'll be 10.