PFF ranks Dak's accuracy

[Kaiser]

I agree, there are times that it would be good if he was a bit more aggressive.

He does get more aggressive if they are behind in the 4th quarter.

Its clear Dak can do whatever is needed. In that last game against the Giants he was missing Zeke and his three best OL. His only option was passing the ball and he had 387 yards passing, 4TDs and 0 INTs.

 

[erod]

What about the passes that should be caught for a 15 yard gain but then clang off a receivers hands and are caught for an INT?

Every QB faces and is affected by the scenario you mentioned above. They all benefit or are hurt by the players around them, because it’s a team sport.

But it’s also why stats don’t mean little. Because you are comparing stats with other quarterbacks who face similar benefits and negatives.

Stats don’t tell the whole story, but dismissing them because they don’t fit your narrative isn’t realistic either.

You just supported my case entirely. Thanks.

Stats don't say a thing about how they came about. They're just an accumulation of largely unrelated events and happenstance that occurred in a variety of different situations, some important, others not.

The eyes tell. You know what you saw, what you didn't see, and what the QBs role in it was. Stats don't speak to that much at all.

 

[erod]

Its clear Dak can do whatever is needed. In that last game against the Giants he was missing Zeke and his three best OL. His only option was passing the ball and he had 387 yards passing, 4TDs and 0 INTs.

In a meaningless game in which most of the Giants roster left the stadium and headed to the airport to go on vacation.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Its clear Dak can do whatever is needed. In that last game against the Giants he was missing Zeke and his three best OL. His only option was passing the ball and he had 387 yards passing, 4TDs and 0 INTs.

against the 23rd pass defense in the league, in a game when it was obvious they had given up as they just stood and watched instead of tackling during the game....

 

[jterrell]

We all know that there are situation where it's best to put the ball on the WR. We also know that there are situations which require the pass to be lead. Situation that require a ball to be thrown in a very specific location in order to minimize the chance of a TO. We watch Dak and at least to me, I see it all the time, he is not accurate. I mean, he does show really good accuracy in certain situations and then, you watch him and you just can't figure out why he is not accurate in other situations, usually requiring a much lessor level of complexity. We see it week after week and I have no idea why. He had the same problem in College. It's really weird to me but I can't say that I would call him accurate. He is efficient and that's tricky because that can be confused with accurate but they are not the same thing. He does make passes that are caught and that are safe, his ability to protect the ball via the pass is excellent. He just doesn't put the ball in the best location to maximize opportunities, a lot of the time. That's just my opinion.

2 totally different discussions.

1. PFF is using a chart and define "accurate" with a target like a shooting range. I'd have used a different target and have no idea how that relates to each QB but suspect each QB coach teaches targets a bit differently. Of course also have variation by receiver. So I'm just not sure I love that "measure". That has zero to do with any 1 QB but how it is being measured. Data is king but bad data is the very worst.

2. I have zero time for Dakurracy truthers. "bUt I sAw" is not a debateable point or worth discussing. Dak throws catchable balls(top 10 in PFF measure there) and avoids interceptions. The comp% and INT metrics are there for 3 years of this. IF he misses it is generally away from the defense as shown by his lack of INT.

 

[ItzKelz]

completion percentage and accuracy aren't the same thing.

71% shows a lot of accuracy.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

2 totally different discussions.

1. PFF is using a chart and define "accurate" with a target like a shooting range. I'd have used a different target and have no idea how that relates to each QB but suspect each QB coach teaches targets a bit differently. Of course also have variation by receiver. So I'm just not sure I love that "measure". That has zero to do with any 1 QB but how it is being measured. Data is king but bad data is the very worst.

2. I have zero time for Dakurracy truthers. "bUt I sAw" is not a debateable point or worth discussing. Dak throws catchable balls(top 10 in PFF measure there) and avoids interceptions. The comp% and INT metrics are there for 3 years of this. IF he misses it is generally away from the defense as shown by his lack of INT.

When he misses, it is usually away from the WR too. He sails a lot of balls on easy throws. It's weird.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

71% shows a lot of accuracy.

I'm sorry, what does the 71% represent?

 

[Kaiser]

against the 23rd pass defense in the league, in a game when it was obvious they had given up as they just stood and watched instead of tackling during the game....

How did the Giants score 35 points while standing around?

I knew this drivel would be posted before I finished my original post. The Giants were 23rd in passing defense last year, the Patriots were 22nd. They seem to have done OK but just standing around and watching.

 

[HungryLion]

You just supported my case entirely. Thanks.

Stats don't say a thing about how they came about. They're just an accumulation of largely unrelated events and happenstance that occurred in a variety of different situations, some important, others not.

The eyes tell. You know what you saw, what you didn't see, and what the QBs role in it was. Stats don't speak to that much at all.

I support your case entirely. Use your eye test to read the second part of my post, and how every QB is affected by those things, and why comparing QB’s stats can still be a valid tool in understanding how they play.

Of course, you would need to have some capacity to understand nuance, in order to get the full jist of what I was posting. So maybe that’s asking too much from you.

You can’t even read, but you want people to “trust your eyes” for what you see on a football field.

Laughable.

 

[BigD_95]

Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate."

That sounds about right. His stats have always been misleading and anyone who watches Dak knows he is in the bottom half when it comes to accurate passing.

I would take it a step more. How many times do you see receivers have to slow down or stop moving to catch one of his passes. He hardly ever hits receivers in stride and make it easy for RAC yards.


You add bottom half in NFL in being accurate and being horrible at seeing the field and making right reads, its no wonder why we cant score points in a offensive scoring NFL.

I keep going back to Romo when Dak ran for a first down and Romo says something like. Thats great he picked up the first down but circles 2 wide open guys in the endzone and says look what you could have had. That is so often the story with Dak. Misreads plays - misses wide open receivers on deep easy TD throws. But hey lets give him a massive contract

 

[Runwildboys]

None of this means anything! 100 different factors that goes into it.
We give quarterbacks so much credit, why do we even need good receivers if the quarterback has to do everything? Most of the time quarterbacks or either throwing the ball to where the receiver can catch it or throwing it away from the defender. it's not all about accuracy, you get a lot of help from good receivers too.

Eli made a career of it.

 

[percyhoward]

Dang....what was his overall completion percentage?

38.6%, which ranked 23rd. But that's practically meaningless because it ignores TD and INT.

Compare these two lists and decide which stat is more meaningful -- completion percentage, or passer rating (which includes completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD, and INT).

13 Bortels 42.5% (5 td 3 int)
15 Rosen 42.0% (4 td 2 int)
16 Ryan 41.9% (8 td 2 int)
17 Rodgers 41.8% (12 td 0 int)
18 Keenum 41.7% (5 td 8 int)
22 Manning 39.2% (4 td 3 int)
23 Prescott 38.6% (8 td 1 int)
26 Allen 36.5% (7 td 7 int)
27 Roethlisberger 35.6% (15 td 2 int)

3 Rodgers 124.0
4 Prescott 115.7
5 Ryan 113.9
6 Roethlisberger 112.9
18 Bortles 88.6
20 Manning 86.7
22 Rosen 80.0
27 Keenum 65.4
29 Allen 62.9

 

[Vtwin]

When he misses, it is usually away from the WR too. He sails a lot of balls on easy throws. It's weird.

My theory is that he is too focused on not throwing the int and doesn't focus on making the accurate throw. In order to make those pinpoint passes to a specific spot you have to first commit entirely to making the throw then laser focus on that spot. If at the time of the release you are splitting your focus between the defender and the spot you want to hit, the ball is going to go in the general area of both. The pass rush also gets in his head at times.

 

[InTheZone]

According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself.

this fits the eyeball test. How many times do we see the receiver have to pause for the ball instead of running in stride or the ball is so far behind they're reach backwards?

 

[percyhoward]

lol. PFF calls it a frame. I call it a receiver's catch radius. It would look more like a circle if a receiver moves his arms fully in a clockwise or counter-clockwise motion starting and ending above his head--not like a square or 'frame'. I like my description better.

Yeah, but your description doesn't recognize the huge difference between accurate passers and super-accurate passers.

 

[Vtwin]

2 totally different discussions.

1. PFF is using a chart and define "accurate" with a target like a shooting range. I'd have used a different target and have no idea how that relates to each QB but suspect each QB coach teaches targets a bit differently. Of course also have variation by receiver. So I'm just not sure I love that "measure". That has zero to do with any 1 QB but how it is being measured. Data is king but bad data is the very worst.

2. I have zero time for Dakurracy truthers. "bUt I sAw" is not a debateable point or worth discussing. Dak throws catchable balls(top 10 in PFF measure there) and avoids interceptions. The comp% and INT metrics are there for 3 years of this. IF he misses it is generally away from the defense as shown by his lack of INT.

I asked this of Percy and he ignored it so I'll try with you.

Isn't this measure of accuracy compiled using the eye tests of people who reviewed the passes? Are their eye tests more valid than ours?

 

[percyhoward]

Main issue I have with it is as a former WR I was taught passes to the facemask were ideal.
Passes to the chest tend to get body caught.
To the facemask and they put those hands up or eat the ball.

Reminds me of Dak's quote about the INT off Dez's hands against Seattle in 2017.

PFF does indeed count anything in the helmet area as being in the frame. But then, that wouldn't be optimal ball placement on a slant or an out pattern near the sideline, especially one that was covered at all. I think the difference between "frame" and "catchable" exists for commercial reasons, and Dak's #9 ranking in catchable balls is the one we need to look at. It's also consistent with his passer rating over his last 15 games (8th).

 

[Crown Royal]

38.6%, which ranked 23rd. But that's practically meaningless because it ignores TD and INT.

Compare these two lists and decide which stat is more meaningful -- completion percentage, or passer rating (which includes completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD, and INT).

13 Bortels 42.5% (5 td 3 int)
15 Rosen 42.0% (4 td 2 int)
16 Ryan 41.9% (8 td 2 int)
17 Rodgers 41.8% (12 td 0 int)
18 Keenum 41.7% (5 td 8 int)
22 Manning 39.2% (4 td 3 int)
23 Prescott 38.6% (8 td 1 int)
26 Allen 36.5% (7 td 7 int)
27 Roethlisberger 35.6% (15 td 2 int)

3 Rodgers 124.0
4 Prescott 115.7
5 Ryan 113.9
6 Roethlisberger 112.9
18 Bortles 88.6
20 Manning 86.7
22 Rosen 80.0
27 Keenum 65.4
29 Allen 62.9

It's not completely meaningless because not every completion is either a TD or an Int, but every missed completion is definitely a missed opportunity, but I totally get your point. The downfield-passing issues people have (including myself) with Dak are overblown, especially when compared to the rest of the league. So from what you've said:

He's middle of the road on attempts (16th)
He's very efficient from a TD to INT on those attempts (4th)
He's doesn't complete a very high percentage of the passes (23rd)

Goes back to what we said earlier and this thread. He's not an incredible ACCURATE passer, but he makes up for it in risk aversion and care with the football. You can win with that.

 

[percyhoward]

I asked this of Percy and he ignored it so I'll try with you.

Isn't this measure of accuracy compiled using the eye tests of people who reviewed the passes? Are their eye tests more valid than ours?

Whoa, I'm not ignoring anybody. It takes a while to read everything addressed to me in this thread.

If you believe PFF, yes they are evaluating based on observation of these attempts. However, they are looking at every throw of all 35 QB. We're not. They're also (one must assume) objective in their analysis. We're obviously not.