2018 Passer Rating on 10+Yard Targets

[Sydla]

I think you said it pretty well, it's obvious you dont think Dak has been the better QB over the last three year, and so our conversation should end right there. There won't be anything to gain from it on my end, and I'm not in the mood to inform.

For comparison, Foles signed a 4 year deal, worth $88MM and $50MM guaranteed. He also has an additional $14MM in incentives available.

So best case, that's about $26MM per year with $50MM guaranteed. Where should Dak's contract be?

 

[BigD_95]

Ummmmm

I guess we would start with age. Should be pretty obvious.
Then we would go with on field play.

Completion %: Dak 66.1% vs 61.6% for Foles
2.68 TD:INT ratio for Dak vs 2.06 for Foles which doesnt include rushing scores
7.4 yards per attempt for Dak, 7.0 for Foles

So other than that, I can't quite put my finger on why he would.

I like the stat of one guy being the Super Bowl MVP and the other having a playoff win.

I would take Foles at his salary than Dak at 28 million plus

 

[Toruk_Makto]

It’s actually evidence that he’s decent at something he’s got a reputation for not being good at. Which suggests he’s maybe better than decent, overall, if other areas of his game remain strong.

It also suggests what part of his game can significantly improve. Especially as Percy later posts about much of the issue has to do with performing better on specific routes with one WR in particular.

People post his long passing efficiency to prove he isn't a dink and dunk passer. But dink and dunk relates more to how often and not how well. Dak throws 70% of his passes 9 yards or in. He is appreciably below NFL average in attempts 20+ and 10-19 yards downfield. He is appreciably above NFL average in attempts 9 yards or in. It's great he's been efficient in below league average passes downfield. It's not great that he throws those passes so infrequently. Now so do some other qbs. Rivers is a great example. Notorious dink and dunker. But he IS the Chargers offense. He dictates what they do and how often. He has complete freedom within the offense. Is Dak that same caliber of QB? Can you ever imagine Dak being our offense?

I cannot.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

I like the stat of one guy being the Super Bowl MVP and the other having a playoff win.

I would take Foles at his salary than Dak at 28 million plus

So you want to use team success as the contract dictator?

Well sounds like you want to pay the farm for Dak considering he has 32 wins over the last three years. Lol

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

So your solution is to do what with our above average 25 year old QB?

@BigD_95

Did you miss this?

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

For comparison, Foles signed a 4 year deal, worth $88MM and $50MM guaranteed. He also has an additional $14MM in incentives available.

So best case, that's about $26MM per year with $50MM guaranteed. Where should Dak's contract be?

5 years, worth $142.5MM and $75MM guaranteed that gets done before the league year starts is my best guess.

That would leave us with average CAP hits of $23.8MM

 

[Sydla]

5 years, worth $142.5MM and $75MM guaranteed that gets done before the league year starts is my best guess.

That would leave us with average CAP hits of $23.8MM

Yeah, I would not be a fan. But it could be worse. Much worse.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

People post his long passing efficiency to prove he isn't a dink and dunk passer. But dink and dunk relates more to how often and not how well. Dak throws 70% of his passes 9 yards or in. He is appreciably below NFL average in attempts 20+ and 10-19 yards downfield. He is appreciably above NFL average in attempts 9 yards or in. It's great he's been efficient in below league average passes downfield. It's not great that he throws those passes so infrequently. Now so do some other qbs. Rivers is a great example. Notorious dink and dunker. But he IS the Chargers offense. He dictates what they do and how often. He has complete freedom within the offense. Is Dak that same caliber of QB? Can you ever imagine Dak being our offense?

I cannot.

Passes below 9 yards:

Dak: 68%
NFL average: 64%

Hyperbole is a hell of a drug

And that's strictly using 2018, where his average depth of target was his lowest in all three years. Almost a full yard less than 2017, and more than a full yard lower than 2016. Due to his starting receiving options being Hurns, Swaim, a rookie, and Beasley to start the season.

Over the last three years, you'll find he was either at average or above it in those categories you're calling "appreciably" different.

The funniest part is "Dak threw it 20+ yards appreciably below NFL average".
Dak-12%
NFL average-13%

LMFFAOOOO

Your intention of misrepresenting stats is not going well.

 

[BigD_95]

So your solution is to do what with our above average 25 year old QB?

offer a contract around what Foles is getting. Maybe go a little higher. Nothing over 25 million per year. If Dak will not take the offer than you look for his replacement. Maybe you have to franchise tag him the following year until you get your guy.

Listen to this clip:

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/nbc...-arent-going-away-for-sean-payton-pft.432369/

They are basically saying that Sean Payton might not want to coach the Cowboys if Dallas signs Dak to a long contract. You are acting like Dak is in some high standing with NFL experts - ex players - announcers - media....etc.

Dak is looked at like a flawed QB with a low celling that needs a good team around him to be successful

 

[armadillooutlaw]

I think it's easy to get tunnel vision about the one team you watch the most, and not have the perspective of what other teams are doing around the league.

20+yd targets
Prescott: 12% of total attempts, 115.7 passer rating
NFL avg: 13% of total attempts, 97.3 passer rating

That tells you Dak threw it deep about as often as everybody else, and with more success than most everybody else. Even in obvious passing situations (3rd/4th down and 3+), he had a 106.6 rating on 15+yard targets. When you look around and compare him to the rest of the league's quarterbacks, you find out that this is something he does well.

The area where criticism is actually justified is 10-19 yards, although most of that is with Gallup's targets (72.9), as opposed to the next three most targeted receivers (Cooper, Beasley, and Hurns -- 126.9). So even that may be 100% on the inexperience of Gallup.

Do you have the numbers on how often Dak throws those intermediate (10-19 yard) passes each year? Just from the eyeball test, it seemed to me he has thrown less of those passes since his rookie year. I could be wrong, of course.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

No checkdowns or screens here. These are all passes thrown at least 10 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. Includes playoffs.

min 80 att
1 Wilson 130.9
2 Cousins 123.9
3 Brees 121.7
4 Ryan 119.6
5 Mahomes 119.3
6 Rodgers 118.4
7 Rivers 114.3
8 Watson 113.4
9 Brady 111.0
10 Wentz 110.2
11 Luck 109.0
12 Carr 101.5
13 Goff 100.9
14 Prescott 100.7
15 Stafford 98.3
16 Dalton 95.1
17 Roethlisberger 93.5
18 Manning 93.5
19 Mariota 91.2
20 Tannehill 90.8
21 Mayfield 89.2
22 Newton 83.9
23 Winston 82.9
24 Trubisky 82.2
25 Keenum 81.7
26 Darnold 76.6
27 Bortles 76.2
28 Jackson 71.7
29 Smith 71.6
30 Rosen 68.7
31 Allen 59.5

Prescott's 175 attempts at this distance also put him in the middle of the pack.

Dak was at 91.6 before Cooper's arrival, 105.6 after.

Can you advise where you got these stats from?

 

[ItzKelz]

No checkdowns or screens here. These are all passes thrown at least 10 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. Includes playoffs.

min 80 att
1 Wilson 130.9
2 Cousins 123.9
3 Brees 121.7
4 Ryan 119.6
5 Mahomes 119.3
6 Rodgers 118.4
7 Rivers 114.3
8 Watson 113.4
9 Brady 111.0
10 Wentz 110.2
11 Luck 109.0
12 Carr 101.5
13 Goff 100.9
14 Prescott 100.7
15 Stafford 98.3
16 Dalton 95.1
17 Roethlisberger 93.5
18 Manning 93.5
19 Mariota 91.2
20 Tannehill 90.8
21 Mayfield 89.2
22 Newton 83.9
23 Winston 82.9
24 Trubisky 82.2
25 Keenum 81.7
26 Darnold 76.6
27 Bortles 76.2
28 Jackson 71.7
29 Smith 71.6
30 Rosen 68.7
31 Allen 59.5

Prescott's 175 attempts at this distance also put him in the middle of the pack.

Dak was at 91.6 before Cooper's arrival, 105.6 after.

I think in the second half of last season proved all you needed to know.

 

[percyhoward]

Can you advise where you got these stats from?

Pro Football Focus for the 10+yard targets.

 

[percyhoward]

Not likely. Because his passer rating with Cooper was still outside the Top Ten for the season.

He did make the Top 10, actually. Dak had Cooper for the last 9 games of the regular season. Over that span, Dak's 103.0 passer rating ranked 9th. Counting playoffs, it was 8th.

 

[Sydla]

He did make the Top 10, actually. Dak had Cooper for the last 9 games of the regular season. Over that span, Dak's 103.0 passer rating ranked 9th. Counting playoffs, it was 8th.

I was just applying his 9 week window to the final passer ratings for all QBs for 16 games.

If he had a 105 for the entire season (and not just 9 weeks), it still would have been outside the Top 10.

 

[TexasHillbilly]

This says everything. Cooper's arrival greatly improved Dak's passer rating on 10+ yard passes.

Now with the Oline much healthier and better passing weapons added to surround Dak, 2019 should be a better passing year for Dak and this Offense.

Honestly, I think he will miss Beasley. He was one of Dak's favorite targets and he was a quick little stinker.

 

[Hadenough]

Pro Football Focus for the 10+yard targets.

Percy,
Do they have Daks stats on 3rd down conversions when its 7+ yards. I read somewhere where Dak ranked 28th among NFL QBs.

 

[Hadenough]

Honestly, I think he will miss Beasley. He was one of Dak's favorite targets and he was a quick little stinker.

I tend to agree! The only thing is Beasley just wanted to much money and he had to go! He just wasnt worth what Buffalo paid him.

 

[TexasHillbilly]

I tend to agree! The only thing is Beasley just wanted to much money and he had to go! He just wasnt worth what Buffalo paid him.

Hey Had, I tend to agree with Beas asking for too much. Someone was willing to pay and the Bills took the bait. Good for Beasley. The last few years of his career will be lucrative.

 

[Dylan88Wilson]

I can’t wait to see what these numbers look like after a full preseason to work with Cooper & Gullup, plus having Frederick back and a bulked up Williams blocking for him.