2018 Passer Rating on 10+Yard Targets

[percyhoward]

Percy,
Do they have Daks stats on 3rd down conversions when its 7+ yards. I read somewhere where Dak ranked 28th among NFL QBs.

PFR says he was 19th. PFF doesn't have that information.

Same stat, in the 4th qtr/OT tied or trailing by one score or less, he ranked 5th.

 

[buybuydandavis]

The problem with evaluating Dak on stats is that he had special circumstance, both positive and negative.

Most QBs don't have Zeke and our oline, and don't have defenses daring the QB to beat them with his arm.
Probably all QBs had OCs who would make better use of the offense.

 

[percyhoward]

I was just applying his 9 week window to the final passer ratings for all QBs for 16 games.

If he had a 105 for the entire season (and not just 9 weeks), it still would have been outside the Top 10.

The "with Cooper" part threw me off I guess.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Passes below 9 yards:

Dak: 68%
NFL average: 64%

Hyperbole is a hell of a drug

And that's strictly using 2018, where his average depth of target was his lowest in all three years. Almost a full yard less than 2017, and more than a full yard lower than 2016. Due to his starting receiving options being Hurns, Swaim, a rookie, and Beasley to start the season.

Over the last three years, you'll find he was either at average or above it in those categories you're calling "appreciably" different.

The funniest part is "Dak threw it 20+ yards appreciably below NFL average".
Dak-12%
NFL average-13%

LMFFAOOOO

Your intention of misrepresenting stats is not going well.

Yes. That's 8.3% below league average 20 yards and over. Yes. That's 15% below league average from 10-19 yards. Yes. That's 9.3% above league average from 0-9 yards.

I'm sorry if numbers confuse you.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Yes. That's 8.3% below league average 20 yards and over. Yes. That's 15% below league average from 10-19 yards. Yes. That's 9.3% above league average from 0-9 yards.

I'm sorry if numbers confuse you.

No, it's 1%. 1% less of his passes go past 20+ yards.

Sorry that math is so hard for you that you cant do 13-12

And with those being whole #'s rounded the difference could be one pass.

Again intentionally trying misrepresent stats highlights a very weak argument.

 

[Hadenough]

PFR says he was 19th. PFF doesn't have that information.

Same stat, in the 4th qtr/OT tied or trailing by one score or less, he ranked 5th.

That 5th is pretty impressive!

 

[Toruk_Makto]

No, it's 1%. 1% less of his passes go past 20+ yards.

Sorry that math is so hard for you that you cant do 13-12

And with those being whole #'s rounded the difference could be one pass.

Again intentionally trying misrepresent stats highlights a very weak argument.

Yikes.

No seriously. Yikes!

Here let me help:

https://www.mathsisfun.com/numbers/percentage-change.html

And now that we have reviewed 4th grade math. Let me ask you 3 questions.

What is the percentage change from 12% to 13%?

What is the percentage change from 20% to 23%?

What is the percentage change from 54% to 49%?

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

Yikes.

No seriously. Yikes!

Here let me help:

https://www.mathsisfun.com/numbers/percentage-change.html

And now that we have reviewed 4th grade math. Let me ask you 3 questions.

What is the percentage change from 12% to 13%?

What is the percentage change from 20% to 23%?

What is the percentage change from 54% to 49%?

You don't take a % of a % when already using a 100%sample size. lmaoo.

That's some stupid as **** lmao. Yikes.

I'll help you out and put it into very very very simple terms.

Dak threw downfield 12% of his throws. The average passer threw downfield on 13% of his throws. Dak threw downfield on 1% less of his throws than the average NFL passer. With rounding involved it could have been the difference of one measly attempt.

Okay, so now that you aren't as dumb. What is 13%-12%?


Not the % change, which is called delta(just teaching you more), it's the difference between the two percentages. There's absolutely no reason to use % change when already in %'s hahahahahaha.

I would delete your post while you can before the timer is up. It's embarrassing. Yikes yikes yikes.

And your bias continues to plague you, with you still refusing to acknowledge that Dak threw behind LOS less than average, conveniently only leaving that distance out. Pretty pathetic.

 

[percyhoward]

That 5th is pretty impressive!

And it's really just a result of being more aggressive late in close games.

15+yd targets by quarter
(as a percentage of total attempts)
1st Dal 12.8% NFL 17.2%
2nd Dal 14.6% NFL 18.3%
3rd Dal 9.2% NFL 17.4%
4th/OT Dal 18.9% NFL 18.6%
Late & Close Dal 25.7% NFL 20.0%

points per drive (NFL rank)
1st qtr 1.77 (14th)
2nd qtr 1.67 (23rd)
3rd qtr 1.47 (22nd)
4th qtr 2.25 (6th)

 

[percyhoward]

Are Brees, Rodgers and Brady dependent on their short throws for efficiency?

Is Dak?

 

[Corso]

This thread gives me such a big smile in every direction.
I am loving this one!

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Is Dak?

Yes. Because he throws short 70% of the time. You have presented no evidence that if Dak threw downfield more often that his efficiency would not be impacted.

In fact given his tendency Dak probably faces more defenses willing to live with the occasional long ball to take away what Dak prefers to do.

So to answer again....yes.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You don't take a % of a % when already using a 100%sample size. lmaoo.

That's some stupid as **** lmao. Yikes.

I'll help you out and put it into very very very simple terms.

Dak threw downfield 12% of his throws. The average passer threw downfield on 13% of his throws. Dak threw downfield on 1% less of his throws than the average NFL passer. With rounding involved it could have been the difference of one measly attempt.

Okay, so now that you aren't as dumb. What is 13%-12%?


Not the % change, which is called delta(just teaching you more), it's the difference between the two percentages. There's absolutely no reason to use % change when already in %'s hahahahahaha.

I would delete your post while you can before the timer is up. It's embarrassing. Yikes yikes yikes.

And your bias continues to plague you, with you still refusing to acknowledge that Dak threw behind LOS less than average, conveniently only leaving that distance out. Pretty pathetic.

Wow this is embarrassing. First, Delta just means difference or change. The Delta between two numbers and the percentage change between two numbers are....like...totally different things. The delta between the numbers 2 and 3 is 1. Said another way 3 minus 2 equals 1. The percentage change between 2 and 3 is 50%. Said another way 3 is 50% larger than 2. Different concepts. Percentages can be tricky. Homeschooling sites advise that you learn percentages between ages 8 and 11. That's as early as 3rd grade. We are talking 3rd grade math.

Now that you realize one can absolutely use a percentage change on fractions, as you're simply measuring a change in two values, let's move on. Wait. You know what? Since fractions are hard for you and you truly don't believe that Dak throws the ball 8.3% less often than nfl average on throws longer than 20 yards let's do away with those pesky percentages. I can help you do that.

Let's say Dak throws the ball 500 times on the season. 12% of those will be 20 yards down the field. That's 60 passes. The league average thrower in those same 500 attempts will throw it 20 yards or more 65 times.

What is the percentage change between 60 and 65? (Hint #1: It is the same as the percentage change from 12% to 13%. Hint #2: I am not asking for the delta between the numbers.)

Good luck. Math can be hard. But it's also fun. Also this isn't hard math. An 8 year old would struggle with it sure. But you're not 8.

 

[jnday]

Yeah, Dak doesn't have accuracy, supposedly, even though his completions percentage average his first 3 years is better than Troy's and Romo's. Yes, that Dak is so terrible with his passing accuracy that he has led the entire league in "tight window throws" 2 out of his first 3 years. Yeah, that Troy Aikman is right about Dak not having good accuracy and how accuracy can't be taught because you either have it or you don't.

Do you realize how silly you are to compare Dak to these QBs? Dak couldn’t carry The HOFer Aikman’s jock strap. Aikman played in an era where passes was contested and QBs took massive hits. The rule changes was all in favor of making passing much easier for higher scoring games.

 

[percyhoward]

You have presented no evidence that if Dak threw downfield more often that his efficiency would not be impacted.

Right, just as you have presented no evidence to the contrary. If we're talking about four quarters of more aggressive offense, all we can do is speculate as to the results. Neither one of us has the slightest idea if what we've seen late in close games can carry over to whole games.

Prescott's 15+yd targets
(as a percentage of total attempts)
Quarters 1-3: 12.2%
Late & Close: 25.7%

passer rating on those attempts
Quarters 1-3: 101.6
Late & Close: 115.1

What we do know, however, is that there are QB whose success comes completely from the short passing game. And Prescott is not one of them.

 

[Keithfansince5]

20+ yard targets
1 Wilson 129.8
2 Rodgers 124.0
3 Prescott 117.4
4 Brees 114.6
5 Ryan 113.9
6 Roethlisberger 112.9
7 Mahomes 107.9
8 Mayfield 107.9
9 Cousins 106.8
10 Brady 106.4

15+yard targets
1 Wilson 133.3
2 Rodgers 115.5
3 Ryan 112.6
4 Brees 111.5
5 Roethlisberger 106.3
6 Mayfield 104.4
7 Cousins 103.6
8 Rivers 102.4
9 Prescott 100.4
10 Brady 99.2

Ball traveling in the air or just yardage? Makes a HUGE difference. 5 yard pass that goes for 30 would count in the later.

 

[percyhoward]

Ball traveling in the air or just yardage? Makes a HUGE difference. 5 yard pass that goes for 30 would count in the later.

Air.

 

[HungryLion]

Wow this is embarrassing. First, Delta just means difference or change. The Delta between two numbers and the percentage change between two numbers are....like...totally different things. The delta between the numbers 2 and 3 is 1. Said another way 3 minus 2 equals 1. The percentage change between 2 and 3 is 50%. Said another way 3 is 50% larger than 2. Different concepts. Percentages can be tricky. Homeschooling sites advise that you learn percentages between ages 8 and 11. That's as early as 3rd grade. We are talking 3rd grade math.

Now that you realize one can absolutely use a percentage change on fractions, as you're simply measuring a change in two values, let's move on. Wait. You know what? Since fractions are hard for you and you truly don't believe that Dak throws the ball 8.3% less often than nfl average on throws longer than 20 yards let's do away with those pesky percentages. I can help you do that.

Let's say Dak throws the ball 500 times on the season. 12% of those will be 20 yards down the field. That's 60 passes. The league average thrower in those same 500 attempts will throw it 20 yards or more 65 times.

What is the percentage change between 60 and 65? (Hint #1: It is the same as the percentage change from 12% to 13%. Hint #2: I am not asking for the delta between the numbers.)

Good luck. Math can be hard. But it's also fun. Also this isn't hard math. An 8 year old would struggle with it sure. But you're not 8.

I mean if we break the math down. Over the course of the past season Dak threw about what? 5 less passes past 20+ yards than the average NFL passer? Not sure as I didn’t look at Dak’s attempts total compared to the NFL average attempts total.

Over 16 games is that really indicative of somebody who doesn’t pull the trigger down field often? I guess it’s a matter of perspective.

none of that accounts for the fact that for the first 7 games Dak has no viable deep threat receiver to
Throw to. The receivers were performing so poorly the front office tried bringing Brice butler back for
Crying out loud.

I do think system and supporting cast should be accounted for. Even if Dak does throw deep less than most QB’s. It’s fair to say the cowboys haven’t had legit deep threat receivers for a while. There are far more talented speed guys on a lot of other NFL teams.

I mean our deep threat receiver was Terrance Williams for a while.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Right, just as you have presented no evidence to the contrary.

But you make the positive assertion that Dak is not dependent on the short throw. To argue someone isn't dependent on what they voluntarily do almost 70% of the time strains credulity,.