2018 Passer Rating on 10+Yard Targets

[percyhoward]

No checkdowns or screens here. These are all passes thrown at least 10 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. Includes playoffs.

min 80 att
1 Wilson 130.9
2 Cousins 123.9
3 Brees 121.7
4 Ryan 119.6
5 Mahomes 119.3
6 Rodgers 118.4
7 Rivers 114.3
8 Watson 113.4
9 Brady 111.0
10 Wentz 110.2
11 Luck 109.0
12 Carr 101.5
13 Goff 100.9
14 Prescott 100.7
15 Stafford 98.3
16 Dalton 95.1
17 Roethlisberger 93.5
18 Manning 93.5
19 Mariota 91.2
20 Tannehill 90.8
21 Mayfield 89.2
22 Newton 83.9
23 Winston 82.9
24 Trubisky 82.2
25 Keenum 81.7
26 Darnold 76.6
27 Bortles 76.2
28 Jackson 71.7
29 Smith 71.6
30 Rosen 68.7
31 Allen 59.5

Prescott's 175 attempts at this distance also put him in the middle of the pack.

Dak was at 91.6 before Cooper's arrival, 105.6 after.

 

[jazzcat22]

Middle of the pack like some say, but much higher than most say.

But with Cooper he jumps up a few spots. Wonder what he can do with a better OC. Moore, time to improve the number.

 

[percyhoward]

Middle of the pack like some say, but much higher than most say.

But with Cooper he jumps up a few spots. Wonder what he can do with a better OC. Moore, time to improve the number.

Cooper moved him up from what would be 18th to what would be 12th.

Here's the breakdown of the players targeted at 10+yards:
Gallup 49 tgt 84.0
Cooper 34 tgt 112.9
Beasley 24 tgt 143.5
Hurns 19 tgt 117.6
Jarwin 12 tgt 105.5
Thompson 10 tgt 28.8
Austin 7 tgt 89.9
others 20 tgt 56.9

Along with Moore, the keys this year are Gallup's development and/or Beasley's replacement.

 

[Blackthorn]

As long as the team moves the chains, I really don't care how far each pass is. If the team keeps moving the chains they eventually run out of real estate.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Dak was at 91.6 before Cooper's arrival, 105.6 after.

This says everything. Cooper's arrival greatly improved Dak's passer rating on 10+ yard passes.

Now with the Oline much healthier and better passing weapons added to surround Dak, 2019 should be a better passing year for Dak and this Offense.

 

[JW82]

Seems about right. I would bet his passes below 10 are top 5. If he can get this number up a few spots he will go from a very good QB to a great QB. Have to factor his mobility and rushing yards/TD's to his overall value as well.

No checkdowns or screens here. These are all passes thrown at least 10 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. Includes playoffs.

min 80 att
1 Wilson 130.9
2 Cousins 123.9
3 Brees 121.7
4 Ryan 119.6
5 Mahomes 119.3
6 Rodgers 118.4
7 Rivers 114.3
8 Watson 113.4
9 Brady 111.0
10 Wentz 110.2
11 Luck 109.0
12 Carr 101.5
13 Goff 100.9
14 Prescott 100.7
15 Stafford 98.3
16 Dalton 95.1
17 Roethlisberger 93.5
18 Manning 93.5
19 Mariota 91.2
20 Tannehill 90.8
21 Mayfield 89.2
22 Newton 83.9
23 Winston 82.9
24 Trubisky 82.2
25 Keenum 81.7
26 Darnold 76.6
27 Bortles 76.2
28 Jackson 71.7
29 Smith 71.6
30 Rosen 68.7
31 Allen 59.5

Prescott's 175 attempts at this distance also put him in the middle of the pack.

Dak was at 91.6 before Cooper's arrival, 105.6 after.

 

[gmoney112]

Cooper moved him up from what would be 18th to what would be 12th.

Here's the breakdown of the players targeted at 10+yards:
Gallup 49 tgt 84.0
Cooper 34 tgt 112.9
Beasley 24 tgt 143.5
Hurns 19 tgt 117.6
Jarwin 12 tgt 105.5
Thompson 10 tgt 28.8
Austin 7 tgt 89.9
others 20 tgt 56.9

Along with Moore, the keys this year are Gallup's development and/or Beasley's replacement.

Are you able to get this data by quarter? Would be interesting given what we know about playbook tendencies in the 4th.

And yeah, Cooper+Beasley are better than I thought actually. Cooper being a late trade actually clicked pretty quickly with Dak, all things considered. Gallup, Thompson, and "others" drag it down a bit, but not unexpected from a rookie WR and the WR circus last year.

Couple reasons to think arrows pointing up this year. I'd be a little more concerned about slot production if Cole was a superstar, but for better or worse, I think Cobb will largely be a lateral move.

 

[CouchCoach]

I think the attempts will rise to put him in the top 10. Cooper, Gallup and Cobb are all about down the field as is Moore. If you watched him play in the NFL or at BSU, that was what he was all about.

I look for two offensive elements to improve this season. I do think Dak will be better because I believe the two things he will work on the most have to do with time. Time before releasing the ball and timing with his receivers. All 3 of his starting WR's have speed and the ability to get open and that will improve the second part of the offense, the average yards per reception.

One thing the Dakaters fail to give him credit for, the improvement once he got a WR that could run routes. That also helped Gallup in his first season and the addition of Cobb was a real nice move. This trio will be top 5, maybe top 3, in getting open and are going to be a handful. Now, it will be in Dak's corner to hit them when they're open and preferably, in stride, and that will make this a very dangerous offense with a hell of a RB as the icing on that cake.

 

[CouchCoach]

Are you able to get this data by quarter? Would be interesting given what we know about playbook tendencies in the 4th.

And yeah, Cooper+Beasley are better than I thought actually. Cooper being a late trade actually clicked pretty quickly with Dak, all things considered. Gallup, Thompson, and "others" drag it down a bit, but not unexpected from a rookie WR and the WR circus last year.

Couple reasons to think arrows pointing up this year. I'd be a little more concerned about slot production if Cole was a superstar, but for better or worse, I think Cobb will largely be a lateral move.

The thing I like about Cobb over Beasley is he's more likely to turn a play into something. He will have to get used to the difference in ball delivery from Rodgers to Prescott but he has the offseason, Cooper didn't.

The difference in the QB and Offense once Cooper arrived is nothing short of amazing to me. That just doesn't happen much. Takes time for WR's to get acclimated and adjust to the QB differences but he hit the ground running and to his credit, Dak began to immediately look for him. No way I would have thought those two hadn't been playing together for a long time.

 

[Beats_By_Zeke]

No checkdowns or screens here. These are all passes thrown at least 10 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. Includes playoffs.

min 80 att
1 Wilson 130.9
2 Cousins 123.9
3 Brees 121.7
4 Ryan 119.6
5 Mahomes 119.3
6 Rodgers 118.4
7 Rivers 114.3
8 Watson 113.4
9 Brady 111.0
10 Wentz 110.2
11 Luck 109.0
12 Carr 101.5
13 Goff 100.9
14 Prescott 100.7
15 Stafford 98.3
16 Dalton 95.1
17 Roethlisberger 93.5
18 Manning 93.5
19 Mariota 91.2
20 Tannehill 90.8
21 Mayfield 89.2
22 Newton 83.9
23 Winston 82.9
24 Trubisky 82.2
25 Keenum 81.7
26 Darnold 76.6
27 Bortles 76.2
28 Jackson 71.7
29 Smith 71.6
30 Rosen 68.7
31 Allen 59.5

Prescott's 175 attempts at this distance also put him in the middle of the pack.

Dak was at 91.6 before Cooper's arrival, 105.6 after.

Those dimes Wilson is able to drop to his receivers are freaking amazing.

 

[Idgit]

They were so close with a lot of those downfield balls to Gallup, and it’s a lot of targets. That number could really change.

 

[percyhoward]

I would bet his passes below 10 are top 5.

No, his passer rating on targets of 9 yards or less is lower. The shorter throws actually hurt his numbers.

Target 10+ yards
Prescott
89 of 175 50.9% 1866 yd 10.7 ypa 15 td 7 int 100.7

Target < 10 yards
309 of 382 80.9% 2511 yd 6.6 ypa 9 td 2 int 99.7

Guys like Trubisky, Newton, and Smith get 20+point boosts from the shorter throws.

 

[Sydla]

These stats seem weird to me.

So they have lower passer ratings on passes less than 10 yards?

 

[CouchCoach]

Those dimes Wilson is able to drop to his receivers are freaking amazing.

That trajectory is so unusual and indefensible without interference. That ball comes down at about 80 degree angle and the DB has no chance to make a play. And as much credit goes to his receivers for being able to put their heads at the right angle and locate the ball. Hard enough to run all out and locate it looking back, they have to look up.

 

[percyhoward]

Are you able to get this data by quarter?

No. PFF doesn't do that at all. PFR does, but that would change the parameters to 15+ yards, which leaves out about half of the attempts. I've looked into tendencies a bit though, particularly the aggressiveness of the offense late in close games.

15+ yard targets as a percentage of total attempts
4th qtr/OT tied or trailing by 8 points or less
Prescott 26.0% (20 of 77) 135.4
Mahomes 20.8% (11 of 53) 103.2
Goff 22.6% (7 of 31) 111.9
Brees 20.0% (12 of 60) 56.6

That isn't a comprehensive list (not the top 4), just a comparison of Dak with 3 guys I picked out.

 

[percyhoward]

These stats seem weird to me.

So they have lower passer ratings on passes less than 10 yards?

It's not easy to fool passer rating, because of its diverse components. When you throw short, what you gain in completion percentage you lose in yards per attempt.

 

[percyhoward]

That trajectory is so unusual and indefensible without interference. That ball comes down at about 80 degree angle and the DB has no chance to make a play. And as much credit goes to his receivers for being able to put their heads at the right angle and locate the ball. Hard enough to run all out and locate it looking back, they have to look up.

Wilson's great, but those two Seattle WR are underrated.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

These stats seem weird to me.

So they have lower passer ratings on passes less than 10 yards?

Usually a QB won’t throw deep unless he has something, where you often have to force it short. One 25 yard pass that breaks tackles to make it a 60 yard td is going to greatly boost your deep ball rating because you don’t throw it deep that much. Conversely, it’s far less likely for a short pass to do that. Dak threw more than 2/3 of his passes withIn 10 yards. Ypa also factor into passer rating formula, so naturally deep balls will be expected to be higher.

Carson’s a good example. He’s in a double TE/Darren Sproles dumpoff offense. He’s only going deep to Agholor when he’s basically got a freebie.

Tom Brady, Gronk, Edelman, James White. 7 yard heroes.

 

[percyhoward]

This says everything. Cooper's arrival greatly improved Dak's passer rating on 10+ yard passes.

To be fair, a lot of that was due to the improvement of Gallup in the second half of the season.

 

[Redball Express]

No checkdowns or screens here. These are all passes thrown at least 10 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. Includes playoffs.

min 80 att
1 Wilson 130.9
2 Cousins 123.9
3 Brees 121.7
4 Ryan 119.6
5 Mahomes 119.3
6 Rodgers 118.4
7 Rivers 114.3
8 Watson 113.4
9 Brady 111.0
10 Wentz 110.2
11 Luck 109.0
12 Carr 101.5
13 Goff 100.9
14 Prescott 100.7
15 Stafford 98.3
16 Dalton 95.1
17 Roethlisberger 93.5
18 Manning 93.5
19 Mariota 91.2
20 Tannehill 90.8
21 Mayfield 89.2
22 Newton 83.9
23 Winston 82.9
24 Trubisky 82.2
25 Keenum 81.7
26 Darnold 76.6
27 Bortles 76.2
28 Jackson 71.7
29 Smith 71.6
30 Rosen 68.7
31 Allen 59.5

Prescott's 175 attempts at this distance also put him in the middle of the pack.

Dak was at 91.6 before Cooper's arrival, 105.6 after.

Interesting.

I know everybody wants more production from the passing game.

But after watching DAK for 3 years..

his best passing is when he gets rid of the ball quickly and does not have to hold the ball waiting for slow clearing pass patterns.

He has trouble throwing people open and his accuracy is spotty.

Aikman said and correctly..you either have accuracy or you don't. It's not something you learn.

Having said that..the types of passes DAK needs are were he is moving..not trying to stay in the pocket reading the coverages and going thru progressions for 3-4 seconds

When he moves, he forces the secondary to breakdown and decide who to cover and watch for his run ability.

This opens up his big play ability.

This allows more RAC by the WRs to gain additional yardage which helps these numbers

Moore has to see this and call plays and select WR groups that play to DAKs strengths.

Linehan really did not do this. And DAK drown in the passing attack Linehan wanted to run.

When Linehan had Stafford in Detroit..he was not a running moving QB. He tried to make DAK a Stafford and he ain't that.