Since 2016, in the 4th Quarter: Dak has 14 GW Drives, most in NFL

[cowboyblue22]

some of those games if Prescott would of played well early they would of not had to comeback they would of had the game well in hand

 

[sean10mm]

so we have compared Dak to Brady, Aikman, and now roger Staubach..... I bet there is an S on his chest when he removed his cowboys uniform...….maybe a small S since he is an average passer, but an S nonetheless

That's not what I'm doing at all. Try reading this again, maybe it will sink in?

You don't even have to like Dak as a QB overall to recognize that he doesn't really choke in the 4th quarter. It's an observable fact. But instead we have people talking themselves into pretzels trying to argue that pulling out wins late is actually a sign of something bad.

You can't say it's bad when Dak does something that's good when anybody else in football does it. That makes you a huge hypocrite.

 

[acr731]

People with brains wired negatively will take this stance.

While people with blinders permanently attached to their face see it differently.

 

[sean10mm]

some of those games if Prescott would of played well early they would of not had to comeback they would of had the game well in hand

You can't say it's bad when Dak does something that's good when anybody else in football does it. That makes you a huge hypocrite.

Nobody anywhere bashes a QB for getting a comeback win... except irrational Cowboys fans apparently.

 

[gimmesix]

22.9 points allowed per game, at the rate of 9.8 drives faced per game. Because the offense led the league in TOP per drive during that stretch, the defense faced half a drive less per game than the league average. At the NFL's average rate of 10.3 drives per game, it comes out to 24.0 points allowed per game.

Games 8-18, 2018
% of opponent drives ending in TD
1 Bears 12.0%
2 Vikings 13.4%
3 Ravens 18.8%
4 Colts 19.0%
5 Titans 19.1%

20 Cowboys 25.0%

Those same eleven games, in points allowed per drive:
8 vs Titans 3.11
9 at Eagles 1.82
10 at Falcons 2.38
11 vs Commanders 2.00
12 vs Saints 1.11
13 vs Eagles 2.18
14 at Colts 3.29
15 vs Bucs 2.00
16 at Giants 3.09
17 vs Seahawks 1.67
18 at Rams 3.75

The best average points allowed per drive for the full season was the Bears at 1.43; the worst was the Raiders' 2.61. So in that 11-game stretch, we had one game (Saints) that was better than the league's best season average. We had four games (vs Titans, at Colts, at Giants, at Rams) that were worse than the league's worst season average.

That's certainly got to improve. I kind of throw out the Giants game because if I remember correctly we didn't play players like Lawrence much, but the Colts and Titans games were definitely regular-season examples where the defense didn't come through. (Of course, the offense didn't help much.) Then, there's obviously the Rams game in the postseason.

The big concern for me (our Achilles' heel in the postseason) is that we don't do well enough on defense against the prolific offenses while our offense isn't prolific enough to outgun them. This happened to us twice against Green Bay and then against LA, and it didn't matter if it was Romo at quarterback or Prescott.

A lot of our "great" numbers are built against teams with either a mediocre offense or mediocre defense, so therefore they look better than what we end up showing in the playoffs when most of the teams made it because at least one of those units is a strength and the other isn't a liability.

Even though I think at times it has been a personnel issue (especially on defense), I see that primarily as a coaching problem.

 

[lopey]

I think alot of the reason Dak has so many 4th qtr drives last couple of years is because Dak thrives in a high tempo, no huddle offense.. We need to showcase this more in the first 3 qtrs.

 

[sean10mm]

Good quarterbacks also adjust to what the defense is doing as the game goes on. Bad quarterbacks... just lose all the close games.

But I agree that part of it is that when your OC is sub par, and you're forced to go away from that OC's script, it's not a stunner if the offense starts playing better.

 

[Jarv]

I think alot of the reason Dak has so many 4th qtr drives last couple of years is because Dak thrives in a high tempo, no huddle offense.. We need to showcase this more in the first 3 qtrs.

This, we should really look at our play calling and scheme during the first 50 minutes of the game as the problem. Of course, hopefully that is in the past now that Scotty is gone.

 

[percyhoward]

A lot of our "great" numbers are built against teams with either a mediocre offense or mediocre defense, so therefore they look better than what we end up showing in the playoffs when most of the teams made it because at least one of those units is a strength and the other isn't a liability.

The defense started strong, and played well in three early-season road losses (Carolina, Houston, Washington) and was a legit top 5 defense at that time, but dropped down to just average by the end of the season, despite flashes of late-season brilliance (holding Ryan and Brees to 2 TD on 17 drives). Offense had a horrible start, that got an actual WR1 and suddenly could move the ball again, still couldn't score in the red zone, but got some timely big plays and ended up as an average offense for the season.

Going into the season, it's hard to say which of the two units is closer to being the dominant one -- if that even ends up happening, and we aren't just balanced like the Patriots.

 

[jazzcat22]

That means the Cowboys were losing in the 4th quarter 14 times,
I would rather Dak have zero game winning drives in the 4th quarter.

Actually many games are within one score going into the 4th quarter.
It is similar to Newton's 3rd law.

For every winning QB there is an equal losing QB.
So how many QB's fail to win in the 4th quarter, now that would be an interesting stat.

 

[percyhoward]

I think alot of the reason Dak has so many 4th qtr drives last couple of years is because Dak thrives in a high tempo, no huddle offense.. We need to showcase this more in the first 3 qtrs.

You may be right, and it's something I'd like to see myself. But we can't really attribute his late-game success so far to the no huddle or shotgun. He just seems to thrive late in close games, regardless of formation or tempo.

Prescott Career
passer rating
huddle 97.0
no huddle 86.9

under C 107.8
shotgun 92.8

1st-3rd qtr 94.6
late & close 108.3

 

[Future]

I swear Im not a Dak bashing person who will spin everything against him, but he has been really consistent at an inability to get early leads. Most of his 4th quarter game winning drives is because he was awful in quarters 1 - 3 at least in the red zone. He needs to up his early game.

Yea, Tony was a lot like that too...

But I will say that Dallas' philosophy is to keep games close in the 4th quarter. That doesn't help Dak either.

 

[HungryLion]

Yea, Tony was a lot like that too...

But I will say that Dallas' philosophy is to keep games close in the 4th quarter. That doesn't help Dak either.

I also think Dallas’ philosophy is similar to a boxer that throws a lot of body shots.

Throwing body shots won’t typically get you a knockout early. But it wears down the opponent so that in later rounds they are sore, having trouble moving and you can get the edge on them as they are worn down.

The cowboys running game is the same thing. It beats up and wears down the opponent defense. It keeps them on the field, tires them out. So that way in the 4th quarter, your offense has an advantage.

It’s by design. But it also tends to lead to close games late. It just allows you to have the physical advantage over your opponent at that key time.

 

[percyhoward]

That’s exactly what I used to say when people bragged about Romo and his game winning drives.

Now we know they were right to brag about his 4th qtr comebacks, because Kacsmar listed Romo 7th in winning percentage out of all active QB after the 2014 season. That's win percentage, so it has nothing to do with how many opportunities he had.

And that was with a defense that allowed TD on a league-worst 30% of opponent drives late in close losses going into 2014. In fact, during his career Romo was the best in the league in the 4th quarter or OT of close losses. With even an average defense and run support, he'd have easily been top 2 or 3 in win percentage on game winning drive oppportunities.

 

[Future]

I also think Dallas’ philosophy is similar to a boxer that throws a lot of body shots.

Throwing body shots won’t typically get you a knockout early. But it wears down the opponent so that in later rounds they are sore, having trouble moving and you can get the edge on them as they are worn down.

The cowboys running game is the same thing. It beats up and wears down the opponent defense. It keeps them on the field, tires them out. So that way in the 4th quarter, your offense has an advantage.

It’s by design. But it also tends to lead to close games late. It just allows you to have the physical advantage over your opponent at that key time.

Yea that's about right.

It's also incredibly stupid in today's NFL.

 

[percyhoward]

I swear Im not a Dak bashing person who will spin everything against him, but he has been really consistent at an inability to get early leads.

Yea, Tony was a lot like that too...

Romo was exceptionally bad coming out of the gate, but killed it coming out of halftime. Dak hasn't been quite as bad to start games, but nowhere near as good as Romo was in the 3rd. Both are/were excellent late in close games, but with Romo it was just a continuation of everything he'd been doing after the 1st quarter. With Dak, it's a significant step up from his performance in the game to that point.

Career passer rating by quarter
Romo
1st 83.1
2nd 97.8
3rd 103.4
4th/OT 102.8
Late & Close 100.5

Prescott
1st 94.1
2nd 99.8
3rd 88.0
4th/OT 99.0
Late & Close 108.3

NOTE: Compare ratings within the same era only, not across eras.

 

[Future]

Romo was exceptionally bad coming out of the gate, but killed it coming out of halftime. Dak hasn't been quite as bad to start games, but nowhere near as good as Romo was in the 3rd. Both are/were excellent late in close games, but with Romo it was just a continuation of everything he'd been doing after the 1st quarter. With Dak, it's a significant step up from his performance in the game to that point.

Career passer rating by quarter
Romo
1st 83.1
2nd 97.8
3rd 103.4
4th/OT 102.8
Late & Close 100.5

Prescott
1st 94.1
2nd 99.8
3rd 88.0
4th/OT 99.0
Late & Close 108.3

NOTE: Compare ratings within the same era only, not across eras.

I think a lot of this would have been influenced by the fact that Tony played a lot of years with no defense and a willingness to abandon the run in the second half. There were plenty of games where the Cowboys just had to air it out in the second half, even with a lead. Dak hasn't been in that situation all that much, and I'd imagine some of those games skew Tony's numbers.

I think lost in all of the Dak vs. Tony hoopla is how similar the two really are in this regard. I mean, how many years did we spend wishing the Cowboys would run a lot more no-huddle and two-minute offense earlier in games? Both are far better when they just play, and don't spend so much time focusing on the game management part.

 

[percyhoward]

I think a lot of this would have been influenced by the fact that Tony played a lot of years with no defense and a willingness to abandon the run in the second half. There were plenty of games where the Cowboys just had to air it out in the second half, even with a lead. Dak hasn't been in that situation all that much, and I'd imagine some of those games skew Tony's numbers.

I think lost in all of the Dak vs. Tony hoopla is how similar the two really are in this regard. I mean, how many years did we spend wishing the Cowboys would run a lot more no-huddle and two-minute offense earlier in games? Both are far better when they just play, and don't spend so much time focusing on the game management part.

Yep, and that last part says a lot about how little credit/blame goes to coaching in general, and especially with this team.

As for airing it out affecting Romo's passer rating, it wouldn't. More attempts just means more yards, TD, completions, incomplete passes, and INT. Lots of potentially good and bad things. Passing more often won't get you a higher rating, in other words. Passing more efficiently is the only thing that will do that.

 

[glimmerman]

Dak is a gamer. I am sure some have already posted that if he played better in the first 3 quarters that he wouldn’t need the 4th quarter come backs. But it’s a team game. We win and or lose as a team.

People are quick to point out that stats and a win/lose record shouldn’t he used as a gauge to figure his contract worth. But when talking about other things they give him direct and sole blame.

Those that don’t like him aren’t going to like him regardless..

 

[Cowboys22]

We all know this and since 2017, Dak has sucked in quarters 1-3 90% of the time. He has been the biggest reason they were behind and a game winning drive was necessary in those 14 games. If he could play well for entire games they would have more wins and he wouldn’t need game winning drives.