If we don't win a playoff game past the wildcard round the perfect puppet will be replaced.
In my opinion, Jerry Jones is a gambler at heart. I believe Jones has never hedged all his bets on the success of the team being the sole byproduct of head coach's coaching ability. I think he equally weighs other factors like roster health, opposing teams' strengths and weakness, and luck (both good and bad) as determinants that dictate overall and final seasonal results.
Taking all factors into consideration, I can foresee two scenarios where Garrett does not get axed:
- Dallas finishes second in the division behind Philadelphia and makes the playoffs as a wild card, which the Cowboys win but then loses in the divisional round while displaying a 'strong effort'.
- Dallas finishes first in the NFC East, gets the first-round bye but loses in the divisional round (again) while battling hard in the defeat.
Emphasis was intentionally hypothesized about how hard the players would visibly display in a playoff defeat. One of the qualities I believe Jones holds Garrett in high esteem is his singular ability in getting the team to (usually) exert maximum effort. It would not surprise me if Jones rationalizes a 'key' injury here or a well-oiled opposing team's play or an unlucky bounce or two as the main reasons why the team did not advance to the conference championship round. If true, it would suggest Jones taking another 'We'll get them next time' approach and not fire Garrett.
Of course, I could be reading Jones completely wrong. The only time I believed the odds were low in Garrett keeping his job was after the 2015 season. He survived and oversaw two additional postseason appearances and three +.500 seasons. It is why I am not very convinced that another pre-conference championship appearance exit will ultimately be Garrett's doom. Or, at least, not following the conclusion of this upcoming season.