How Special is Ezekiel?

[G2]

I don't think the premise is that Elliott isn't a good running back. Or even a great one.

The premise here is whether he really is worht all that money and cap space if the stats show, while good, he's not appreciably better than other RBs.

What matters is comparing to other available RBs. Not to other RBs on other teams we have zero chance of getting.
I really don't care if he's ranked 2nd or 3rd or whatever. He's elite. He's complete.

Let's talk realistic options. Who fills the void?

 

[Toruk_Makto]

This is so desperate.

OP be like "during leap years in the first week of November on the 7th 3rd down of the second half Zeke is not the best RB in the league, so see we should not pay him."

Imagine reading the OP and thinking this.

 

[CF74]

This is a fallacy based on the data. The team is built to run the ball behind this OL. It was no built to just feature Elliott and only Elliott could run the ball here.

The stats show that Elliott isn't appreciably better or more efficient at running the ball than other, lesser thought of (and paid) TBs. Note, I am not saying he's not good. But what the data shows is that while good, Elliott isn't far and away better than a lot of other TBs.

Going a step further, to do what we've done to date with how this team has been built, do we need to pay Elliott $17MM a year to do that? I think the answer is no.

Convince Jerry. Most fans would prefer to spend the money elsewhere...

 

[G2]

@Toruk_Makto you’re likely to get more to agree with you if you said Zeke is trying to get paid now because his style of play will not afford him to many more seasons. He might be out of the league in 3-5 years the way he plays...

The average for RBs is less than 4.

 

[Bob-Lillys-War]

In all fairness , playcalling, plays and scheming will move this numbers.
As well as game planning , and half time adjustments.

All of which Garrett is terrible at .

Just sayin...

 

[Sydla]

What matters is comparing to other available RBs. Not to other RBs on other teams we have zero chance of getting.
I really don't care if he's ranked 2nd or 3rd or whatever. He's elite. He's complete.

Let's talk realistic options. Who fills the void?

But when you look at that list, you see that teams acquired TBs in a variety of ways.

We don't know who is available. We don't know who might be cut. Who might be available in a trade. Who might be available in which round next year. So it's impossible to sit here and say who we can get next year to replace Elliott if we were to let him walk (frankly, I think if he didn't sign a long term deal, they'd probably tag him for at least a year - although that might depend on where Dak is in terms of his contract).

The Philadelphia Eagles won a SB in 2017 with a top 5 running game built behind a strong OL, a fairly cheap signing in LaGarrett Blount, trading a 5th round pick for Jay Ajayi and a UDFA in Corey Clement. That might be an extreme example but it shows that in order to have a great running game, you don't have to bend over a barrel and pay out the butt for a TB.

 

[stilltheguru]

It's interesting to watch the Zeke homers attack the poster instead of actually trying to refute and digest the data presented.

Tells you really all you need to know. That bringing Zeke back and paying him big bucks is more emotional for many than actually rational.

All data isn’t created equal. Data tells you Lebron James is better than Michael Jordan. No thank you. Houston Rockets gm is all about data and they do nothing but lose. What do players say about Zeke?

Also data says Lebron is better than Kobe yet damn near every player says Kobe. Idgad about that data

 

[mattjames2010]

Yes we’ve been a run oriented team for a long time, hence skillset comment...

Yes, but the argument is boiling down to “Zeke is the reason...” - Zeke has never been the reason. Zeke has always been a good/great RB getting massively propped up by a great run blocking line and a heavy workload

Looking at the stats provided - what Zeke has done is about on par with what Murray did in 2014.

We then need to add in Zeke’s problems off the field and you start to wonder how much he is truly worth in contract negotiations

Out of the players needing contracts, he might just be the easiest to replace due to the nature of the position

 

[CF74]

Yes, but the argument is boiling down to “Zeke is the reason...” - Zeke has never been the reason. Zeke has always been a good/great RB getting massively propped up by a great run blocking line and a heavy workload

Looking at the stats provided - what Zeke has done is about on par with what Murray did in 2014.

We then need to add in Zeke’s problems off the field and you start to wonder how much he is truly worth in contract negotiations

Out of the players needing contracts, he might just be the easiest to replace due to the nature of the position

You don’t have to convince me, just Jerry.. Just curious but what rb would you bring in to replace him?

 

[Sydla]

All data isn’t created equal. Data tells you Lebron James is better than Michael Jordan. No thank you. Houston Rockets gm is all about data and they do nothing but lose. What do players say about Zeke?

Also data says Lebron is better than Kobe yet damn near every player says Kobe. Idgad about that data

LOL.

Data might have it's flaws but it's way more accurate than the eye test that people like to apply. Especially when the eye test is being performed by someone like you who is clearly biased.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

@Toruk_Makto you’re likely to get more to agree with you if you said Zeke is trying to get paid now because his style of play will not afford him to many more seasons. He might be out of the league in 3-5 years the way he plays...

I wasn't trying to get fans. I merely presented the data.

It's apparently made some people very uncomfortable. So much so that they dismiss it out of hand because the eye test.

 

[stilltheguru]

LOL.

Data might have it's flaws but it's way more accurate than the eye test that people like to apply. Especially when the eye test is being performed by someone like you who is clearly biased.

I said WHAT DO PLAYERS SAY ABOUT ZEKE. forget about me. The horses mouth.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

What matters is comparing to other available RBs. Not to other RBs on other teams we have zero chance of getting.
I really don't care if he's ranked 2nd or 3rd or whatever. He's elite. He's complete.

Let's talk realistic options. Who fills the void?

Outside of sheer volume he was handed what exactly makes him elite?

 

[Sydla]

I said WHAT DO PLAYERS SAY ABOUT ZEKE. forget about me. The horses mouth.

Players are territorial and defensive of each other in most cases. So you'd be hard pressed to find a player speak ill of a guy like Elliott.

The players think Carson Wentz is better than Dak based on some of the player rankings. Funny how in that case, well, the players don't know what they are talking about right?

 

[CWR]

It’s built around the strength of the o-line, we had this style before Zeke got here and an RB that was statistically better than Zeke

Thats a good point, but keep in mind we also had a qb who was more of a passing threat.

However, the drop off between Zeke and Alf is huge, but I would imagine having a back like Aaron Jones, Sony, James Connor, Mixon, Cook ect. would be wildly successful as well. There is no doubt our oline can make a good rb great.

The biggest problem now is that we dont have anyone proven like that and we think this team has a real chance. We cant waste this season.

Which is why Id love to sign Zeke to a deal that allows us to flip him later after we have said player.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

You don’t have to convince me, just Jerry.. Just curious but what rb would you bring in to replace him?

I don't mean to be glib but almost anyone?

McFadden was basically out of football and ran for 1k yards with our worst passing attack in a decade.

Morris was more efficient in 2017 than Zeke was.

UDFA Phillip Lindsay just had an amazing rookie year in Denver with no passing game to speak of.

I don't know every name out there available but I wouldn't be at all worried about our run game if Zeke sat the entire year. I really wouldn't.

And that's not because Zeke hasn't been efficient (he hasn't). That's because rb production is more a function of your offensive line than the guy you give the ball to. It just is. And there we are good.

 

[CF74]

I wasn't trying to get fans. I merely presented the data.

It's apparently made some people very uncomfortable. So much so that they dismiss it out of hand because the eye test.

All your points are valid and logical but unless we get a new coach and a new offensive scheme, we rely heavily on an above average run game.

Who can we bring in to match the battering ram? In this offensive scheme we’ve had our most success with three beasts: Marion The Barbarian, Murray, and now Zeke.

I’m all for cheaper options if it means we can use the difference to bolster other key positions.. I’m not totally irrational...

 

[mattjames2010]

What matters is comparing to other available RBs. Not to other RBs on other teams we have zero chance of getting.
I really don't care if he's ranked 2nd or 3rd or whatever. He's elite. He's complete.

Let's talk realistic options. Who fills the void?

Those numbers were far from elite and he wasn’t available in enough games in 2017 to make a judgement

What Zeke has going for him is that he MIGHT be a very durable back and that is valuable - however, he has already shown signs of slowing down and the burst he had in 2016 is gone

 

[G2]

Outside of sheer volume he was handed what exactly makes him elite?

I factor in everything. If you need to NOT use total rushing yards and carries to factor in a RB's skillset - end of conversation.

 

[stilltheguru]

Players are territorial and defensive of each other in most cases. So you'd be hard pressed to find a player speak ill of a guy like Elliott.

The players think Carson Wentz is better than Dak based on some of the player rankings. Funny how in that case, well, the players don't know what they are talking about right?

What I’m saying is defenders speak about Zeke as though he’s the best while fans talk slick. I’ll listen to the players. Carson is better than Dak also