How Special is Ezekiel?

[aikemirv]

Yes stats can.

We can see how teams load the box when a player is on the field or not.

Zeke when on the field sees a league average stacked boxes. In 2017 he saw a lower percentages of stacked boxes than Alfred Morris.

He has no effect on how teams line up.

So you are telling me that the only thing that effects the number of stacked boxes is the RB in the backfield?

 

[G2]

Those numbers were far from elite and he wasn’t available in enough games in 2017 to make a judgement

What Zeke has going for him is that he MIGHT be a very durable back and that is valuable - however, he has already shown signs of slowing down and the burst he had in 2016 is gone

Awesome story. Find another RB who's better and complete and I'm in. Go!

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Thats a good point, but keep in mind we also had a qb who was more of a passing threat.

However, the drop off between Zeke and Alf is huge, but I would imagine having a back like Aaron Jones, Sony, James Connor, Mixon, Cook ect. would be wildly successful as well. There is no doubt our oline can make a good rb great.

The biggest problem now is that we dont have anyone proven like that and we think this team has a real chance. We cant waste this season.

Which is why Id love to sign Zeke to a deal that allows us to flip him later after we have said player.

My argument in the op is that Zeke is supposed to be a great RB turned superhuman by our Oline. I'm being kind when I say... That has not happened.

 

[mattjames2010]

Thats a good point, but keep in mind we also had a qb who was more of a passing threat.

However, the drop off between Zeke and Alf is huge, but I would imagine having a back like Aaron Jones, Sony, James Connor, Mixon, Cook ect. would be wildly successful as well. There is no doubt our oline can make a good rb great.

The biggest problem now is that we dont have anyone proven like that and we think this team has a real chance. We cant waste this season.

Which is why Id love to sign Zeke to a deal that allows us to flip him later after we have said player.

Morris actually had very similar stats to Zeke, he just had less carries (in 2017)

This is the problem with the RB position, the gap between good, great, and elite isn’t very wide.

There is no doubt in my mind that if we traded Zeke away or cut him loose, we could find an RB in the second or third round that would come in and produce enough that Zeke would be an afterthought

I have nothing against Zeke personally as a player, it’s just how the RB position has been since around 2005 or 2006.

 

[G2]

My argument in the op is that Zeke is supposed to be a great RB turned superhuman by our Oline. I'm being kind when I say... That has not happened.

Right. The O-line wasn't the greatest and wasn't All World like some suggest.

 

[Fire407]

These analytics mean nothing. He was 10th in short yardage, but that's with the coaching staff calling plays that everyone in the stadium knows is coming. The Rams game proved that you can't just run him into a wall and expect to get yardage.

 

[Sydla]

What I’m saying is defenders speak about Zeke as though he’s the best while fans talk slick. I’ll listen to the players. Carson is better than Dak also

But again no one is really questioning if Elliott is a really good TB. The question asked is Elliott so much better than others that it's justified to pay him a crap ton of money?

The stats say no............ that while a very good TB, he's not appreciably better than other TBs to where you have to pay a ton of money to get similar (or even slightly less) production.

 

[staubach24]

You’ve heard me say it a million times that I do not want to pay a RB. I do not believe in it. It is the least important position on offense. Elite production can be found more readily later in the draft. Yeah I said it. And i've said it before. I also know that the Cowboys are going to keep Zeke. This isn't about that.

A funny thing happens when I say I would not pay a RB. They point to Emmitt and other big time RBs that have led their teams to the promised land. They say they agree with me in theory but that I need to be more nuanced. I need to make exceptions for truly transcendent talents. So is Zeke that….a transcendent talent?

That's the question right?

I've always assumed he would be awesome. When we drafted him i'd assumed he would be awesome. As he's racked up awards I've assumed he was awesome. I was wrong. Let's investigate.


The counting stats speak for themselves...

Rushing yards:

2016: 1,631 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1

2017: 983 || League Rank: #10; League Rank Per Game: #1

2018: 1,434 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1


His receiving work has shown steady improvement

Receptions Per Game:

2016: 2.13

2017: 2.6

2018: 5.13


Receiving Yards Per Game:

2016: 24.2

2017: 26.9

2018: 37.8


The awards speak for themselves.

2x Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)

First-Team All Pro (2016)

Second-Team All Pro (2018)

PFWA All-Rookie Team (2016)

FedEx Ground Player of the Year (2016)


If you stop the analysis here Zeke is unarguably the most accomplished RB league wide since he has put on The Star. You could at least squint and make the argument that you pay transcendence.

However, we are better than our fathers and grandfathers. We now know that efficiency is more important than volume in everything from financial analysis, to online marketing and yes also to professional football. So how efficient is Zeke relative to his peers?

Well here we can look to PFF’s RB statistics. Now I don’t like PFF when they try to evaluate players but they can count things like a missed tackle or a fumble. And they do!
Source: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-explaining-dallas-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliotts-2018-pff-grade


Forced missed tackles per game among RBs

2016: 31st

2017: 40th

2018: 35th

*Last year Zeke was 1st in total yards after contact but 18th in yards after contact per carry.


Breakaway Percentage among Rbs (percentage of yards a RB gains on runs of more than 15 yards)

2018: 15th


Fumbles among RBs

2018: 1st


Yards per route run among RBs:

2016: 24th

2017: Did not qualify due to suspension

2018: 19th


Put all together and PFF’s Eric Eager found Zeke’s production in 2018 was worth just 0.2 wins above a replacement player. Zero. Point. Two. For the laymen out there...that is not a lot. For reference Mahomes who led the league in the metric checked in at 7.49. That is 37.45 times higher than Zeke. If Zeke is worth 15MM a year what do should the Chiefs pay Patrick?

Look this is not good. But what many have told me is that the Cowboys offensive line combined with Zeke is where his true value lies. Instead of having just a good running game with our line we have a great running game with Zeke. A truly overbearing force they say! So surely the results of Zeke and the line together is what is most important and we can point to that dominance right? The problem? We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. We know passing efficiency is correlated with winning. Putting this aside we could argue that at the very least situational running is important right (think red zone work, short yardage situations to extend drives and running out the clock in the 4th quarter)? That is where Zeke can point to his value?

Thankfully FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers.
Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/

Because winning matters, let’s start with closing out games.

If we look at all runs in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys were ahead we can look at how each run increased or decreased our win probability.


Win Probability Added in the 4th:

2018: Cowboys ranked 7th overall (Hat tip to Dak)

2018: Zeke ranked 22nd

Last 3 years: Zeke lead in attempts but ranked 26th in win probability added.





Field goals in the red zone get teams beat. Surely Zeke shined in the red zone?


Red zone runs by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 10th overall

2018: Zeke ranked 16th in EPA and 28th in success rate

Last 3 years: Zeke ranked 11th in EPA and 10th in success rate

Staying on the field and wearing opposing defenses down is something we have preached since Zeke was drafted. Hopefully this year we don’t fear sending out our defense as much as we have in our recent past. How much has Zeke helped our defense by extending drives on the ground?


Short yardage runs in open field by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 4th overall

2018: Zeke’s EPA ranked 10th, his success rate of 67% was good for 11th

Well Zeke helps Dak right? And QB is the most important position in all of sports right? Zeke draws extra defenders into the box and makes our play action more effective right?



So yes QBs do well when they run play-action. No, we don't need an efficient RB/game to achieve that enhancement.

Look, as I have long acknowledged and accepted and stated as much in this post….The Cowboys are very likely to pay Zeke, make him fabulously wealthy and set some benchmarks other RBs look to hurdle (cough) in coming years. So let’s talk about salary cap efficiency since we’re here

“According to data from Overthecap, the share of average team salary allocated to all rostered running backs has fallen from 6.8 percent of spending in 2013 to 4.5 percent in 2019. Zeke’s salary alone in his optioned fifth year will represent 4.5 percent of the Cowboy’s salary cap. If Zeke signs an extension before the 2020 season, his cap hit combined with the rest of Dallas’s spend at the running back position will likely be double the league average.”

So if Zeke is going to lead to the Cowboys spending roughly double what the league will then we should expect Zeke to be worth double what a replacement level back is worth, right? Well you remember his 2018 wins above replacement number? Zero. Point. Two.

So is Zeke a transcendent talent? What exactly other than volume and counting stats would make you think he was?

And before you answer take a look at this:



^^^

This is a good take. Speciilty backs who post big efficiency numbers on minuscule volume are likely not better than Zeke. If they were they'd get more volume! However, Zeke likely isn't appreciably better than a lot of RBs who are in committees and share the load. He's just higher paid, more famous and in a better offense.

As we stand and breath nothing but the Cowboys stuffing Zeke with volume and inflating his counting stats points to Zeke being a transcendent talent. In fact you could say he’s been quite average. And this is depressing. When not wanting to pay Zeke I at least knew he was tremendous. I knew he was a special talent. At least we were paying a Hall of Famer! An objective look at his 3 years career to date presents a very different picture. Cognitive dissonance will cause many to dismiss this post. That's fine.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But no one is entitled to their own facts.

You got wayyyyy too much time on your hands, Bro.

 

[zrinkill]

Imagine reading the OP and thinking this.

The average adult reads 250 minutes per minute.

Imagine writing this and thinking it makes sense.

 

[CF74]

But again no one is really questioning if Elliott is a really good TB. The question asked is Elliott so much better than others that it's justified to pay him a crap ton of money?

The stats say no............ that while a very good TB, he's not appreciably better than other TBs to where you have to pay a ton of money to get similar (or even slightly less) production.

Name 2-3 rb’s we can bring in on the cheap that can carry the rock 25-35 times a game, not get injured, and produce at least 1,250 yds for us...

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Name 2-3 rb’s we can bring in on the cheap that can carry the rock 25-35 times a game, not get injured, and produce at least 1,250 yds for us...

Why do we need a single RB to carry the ball 25 times a game and produce 1,250?

Id argue that's the exact opposite of what you'd want.

You want a committee of backs who are largely interchange that compete with each other. Throw in a gadget player and that's c ast you can go to war with.

 

[stilltheguru]

But again no one is really questioning if Elliott is a really good TB. The question asked is Elliott so much better than others that it's justified to pay him a crap ton of money?

The stats say no............ that while a very good TB, he's not appreciably better than other TBs to where you have to pay a ton of money to get similar (or even slightly less) production.

Where’s the evidence Zeke can be replaced? We’ve seen Bell be replaced. We’ve seen Gurley replaced and he has an injury history and got paid.

 

[CF74]

Why do we need a single RB to carry the ball 25 times a game and produce 1,250?

Id argue that's the exact opposite of what you'd want.

You want a committee of backs who are largely interchange that compete with each other. Throw in a gadget player and that's c ast you can go to war with.

I understand your premise however I’m asking the dude to validate his point with options. He said there are other backs that can produce slightly less than Zeke for less money.

To answer your question you still need one dominant lead back for a committee to work.. Every key position has a #1.

 

[TwoDeep3]

You’ve heard me say it a million times that I do not want to pay a RB. I do not believe in it. It is the least important position on offense. Elite production can be found more readily later in the draft. Yeah I said it. And i've said it before. I also know that the Cowboys are going to keep Zeke. This isn't about that.

A funny thing happens when I say I would not pay a RB. They point to Emmitt and other big time RBs that have led their teams to the promised land. They say they agree with me in theory but that I need to be more nuanced. I need to make exceptions for truly transcendent talents. So is Zeke that….a transcendent talent?

That's the question right?

I've always assumed he would be awesome. When we drafted him i'd assumed he would be awesome. As he's racked up awards I've assumed he was awesome. I was wrong. Let's investigate.


The counting stats speak for themselves...

Rushing yards:

2016: 1,631 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1

2017: 983 || League Rank: #10; League Rank Per Game: #1

2018: 1,434 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1


His receiving work has shown steady improvement

Receptions Per Game:

2016: 2.13

2017: 2.6

2018: 5.13


Receiving Yards Per Game:

2016: 24.2

2017: 26.9

2018: 37.8


The awards speak for themselves.

2x Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)

First-Team All Pro (2016)

Second-Team All Pro (2018)

PFWA All-Rookie Team (2016)

FedEx Ground Player of the Year (2016)


If you stop the analysis here Zeke is unarguably the most accomplished RB league wide since he has put on The Star. You could at least squint and make the argument that you pay transcendence.

However, we are better than our fathers and grandfathers. We now know that efficiency is more important than volume in everything from financial analysis, to online marketing and yes also to professional football. So how efficient is Zeke relative to his peers?

Well here we can look to PFF’s RB statistics. Now I don’t like PFF when they try to evaluate players but they can count things like a missed tackle or a fumble. And they do!
Source: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-explaining-dallas-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliotts-2018-pff-grade


Forced missed tackles per game among RBs

2016: 31st

2017: 40th

2018: 35th

*Last year Zeke was 1st in total yards after contact but 18th in yards after contact per carry.


Breakaway Percentage among Rbs (percentage of yards a RB gains on runs of more than 15 yards)

2018: 15th


Fumbles among RBs

2018: 1st


Yards per route run among RBs:

2016: 24th

2017: Did not qualify due to suspension

2018: 19th


Put all together and PFF’s Eric Eager found Zeke’s production in 2018 was worth just 0.2 wins above a replacement player. Zero. Point. Two. For the laymen out there...that is not a lot. For reference Mahomes who led the league in the metric checked in at 7.49. That is 37.45 times higher than Zeke. If Zeke is worth 15MM a year what do should the Chiefs pay Patrick?

Look this is not good. But what many have told me is that the Cowboys offensive line combined with Zeke is where his true value lies. Instead of having just a good running game with our line we have a great running game with Zeke. A truly overbearing force they say! So surely the results of Zeke and the line together is what is most important and we can point to that dominance right? The problem? We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. We know passing efficiency is correlated with winning. Putting this aside we could argue that at the very least situational running is important right (think red zone work, short yardage situations to extend drives and running out the clock in the 4th quarter)? That is where Zeke can point to his value?

Thankfully FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers.
Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/

Because winning matters, let’s start with closing out games.

If we look at all runs in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys were ahead we can look at how each run increased or decreased our win probability.


Win Probability Added in the 4th:

2018: Cowboys ranked 7th overall (Hat tip to Dak)

2018: Zeke ranked 22nd

Last 3 years: Zeke lead in attempts but ranked 26th in win probability added.





Field goals in the red zone get teams beat. Surely Zeke shined in the red zone?


Red zone runs by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 10th overall

2018: Zeke ranked 16th in EPA and 28th in success rate

Last 3 years: Zeke ranked 11th in EPA and 10th in success rate

Staying on the field and wearing opposing defenses down is something we have preached since Zeke was drafted. Hopefully this year we don’t fear sending out our defense as much as we have in our recent past. How much has Zeke helped our defense by extending drives on the ground?


Short yardage runs in open field by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 4th overall

2018: Zeke’s EPA ranked 10th, his success rate of 67% was good for 11th

Well Zeke helps Dak right? And QB is the most important position in all of sports right? Zeke draws extra defenders into the box and makes our play action more effective right?



So yes QBs do well when they run play-action. No, we don't need an efficient RB/game to achieve that enhancement.

Look, as I have long acknowledged and accepted and stated as much in this post….The Cowboys are very likely to pay Zeke, make him fabulously wealthy and set some benchmarks other RBs look to hurdle (cough) in coming years. So let’s talk about salary cap efficiency since we’re here

“According to data from Overthecap, the share of average team salary allocated to all rostered running backs has fallen from 6.8 percent of spending in 2013 to 4.5 percent in 2019. Zeke’s salary alone in his optioned fifth year will represent 4.5 percent of the Cowboy’s salary cap. If Zeke signs an extension before the 2020 season, his cap hit combined with the rest of Dallas’s spend at the running back position will likely be double the league average.”

So if Zeke is going to lead to the Cowboys spending roughly double what the league will then we should expect Zeke to be worth double what a replacement level back is worth, right? Well you remember his 2018 wins above replacement number? Zero. Point. Two.

So is Zeke a transcendent talent? What exactly other than volume and counting stats would make you think he was?

And before you answer take a look at this:



^^^

This is a good take. Specifically backs who post big efficiency numbers on minuscule volume are likely not better than Zeke. If they were they'd get more volume! However, Zeke likely isn't appreciably better than a lot of RBs who are in committees and share the load. He's just higher paid, more famous and in a better offense.

As we stand and breath nothing but the Cowboys stuffing Zeke with volume and inflating his counting stats points to Zeke being a transcendent talent. In fact you could say he’s been quite average. And this is depressing. When not wanting to pay Zeke I at least knew he was tremendous. I knew he was a special talent. At least we were paying a Hall of Famer! An objective look at his 3 years career to date presents a very different picture. Cognitive dissonance will cause many to dismiss this post. That's fine.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But no one is entitled to their own facts.

Gosh, now if he could just play with the other ten guys on his team, think of how well he'd do.

He doesn't play in a vacuum. He is beholding to the other guys, including a QB that doesn't seem to keep defensive coordinators up at night. Therefore they crowd the box with the intent of stopping Zeke and thus stopping Dallas.

This post of yours is EXACTLY why I think stats are the steaming matter falling from a tall bull's butt. They are cold hard numbers that do not take into account a front office going into a season with a QB that would prefer having venereal warts, or at the very least athlete's foot over throwing deep. An offensive line that relies on the forbearance of Tyron Smith's back. And a front office that decided to go to war with a group of WR's who couldn't get open if the other team went to the dressing room at half time.

If you ignore those facts, and that Zeke sat out 6 games in one of your sample years, then the research is dishonest.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Gosh, now if he could just play with the other ten guys on his team, think of how well he'd do.

He doesn't play in a vacuum. He is beholding to the other guys, including a QB that doesn't seem to keep defensive coordinators up at night. Therefore they crowd the box with the intent of stopping Zeke and thus stopping Dallas.

This post of yours is EXACTLY why I think stats are the steaming matter falling from a tall bull's butt. They are cold hard numbers that do not take into account a front office going into a season with a QB that would prefer having venereal warts, or at the very least athlete's foot over throwing deep. An offensive line that relies on the forbearance of Tyron Smith's back. And a front office that decided to go to war with a group of WR's who couldn't get open if the other team went to the dressing room at half time.

If you ignore those facts, and that Zeke sat out 6 games in one of your sample years, then the research is dishonest.

Despite many of the things you said being wrong (Morris saw more 8 man boxes than Zeke did in 2017 and overall the last 3 years Zeke has averages about 20th for all RBs in percentage of runs facing a stacked box)... Let me see if I understand you correctly.

Zeke was able to lead the league in yards per game every single year of his career in this offense but somehow that same offense held him back from being efficient? It was the qb and LT which has sapped Zeke’s ability to break tackles and have long runs? It is Garrett keeping Zeke from short yardage success? Throw out all the stats but rushing yards essentially? That's your argument?

Let me ask you this if Zeke was averaging 900 yards per year instead would you excuse it and pay him top dollar because of these "mitigating factors?"

 

[408Cowboy]

You’ve heard me say it a million times that I do not want to pay a RB. I do not believe in it. It is the least important position on offense. Elite production can be found more readily later in the draft. Yeah I said it. And i've said it before. I also know that the Cowboys are going to keep Zeke. This isn't about that.

A funny thing happens when I say I would not pay a RB. They point to Emmitt and other big time RBs that have led their teams to the promised land. They say they agree with me in theory but that I need to be more nuanced. I need to make exceptions for truly transcendent talents. So is Zeke that….a transcendent talent?

That's the question right?

I've always assumed he would be awesome. When we drafted him i'd assumed he would be awesome. As he's racked up awards I've assumed he was awesome. I was wrong. Let's investigate.


The counting stats speak for themselves...

Rushing yards:

2016: 1,631 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1

2017: 983 || League Rank: #10; League Rank Per Game: #1

2018: 1,434 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1


His receiving work has shown steady improvement

Receptions Per Game:

2016: 2.13

2017: 2.6

2018: 5.13


Receiving Yards Per Game:

2016: 24.2

2017: 26.9

2018: 37.8


The awards speak for themselves.

2x Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)

First-Team All Pro (2016)

Second-Team All Pro (2018)

PFWA All-Rookie Team (2016)

FedEx Ground Player of the Year (2016)


If you stop the analysis here Zeke is unarguably the most accomplished RB league wide since he has put on The Star. You could at least squint and make the argument that you pay transcendence.

However, we are better than our fathers and grandfathers. We now know that efficiency is more important than volume in everything from financial analysis, to online marketing and yes also to professional football. So how efficient is Zeke relative to his peers?

Well here we can look to PFF’s RB statistics. Now I don’t like PFF when they try to evaluate players but they can count things like a missed tackle or a fumble. And they do!
Source: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-explaining-dallas-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliotts-2018-pff-grade


Forced missed tackles per game among RBs

2016: 31st

2017: 40th

2018: 35th

*Last year Zeke was 1st in total yards after contact but 18th in yards after contact per carry.


Breakaway Percentage among Rbs (percentage of yards a RB gains on runs of more than 15 yards)

2018: 15th


Fumbles among RBs

2018: 1st


Yards per route run among RBs:

2016: 24th

2017: Did not qualify due to suspension

2018: 19th


Put all together and PFF’s Eric Eager found Zeke’s production in 2018 was worth just 0.2 wins above a replacement player. Zero. Point. Two. For the laymen out there...that is not a lot. For reference Mahomes who led the league in the metric checked in at 7.49. That is 37.45 times higher than Zeke. If Zeke is worth 15MM a year what do should the Chiefs pay Patrick?

Look this is not good. But what many have told me is that the Cowboys offensive line combined with Zeke is where his true value lies. Instead of having just a good running game with our line we have a great running game with Zeke. A truly overbearing force they say! So surely the results of Zeke and the line together is what is most important and we can point to that dominance right? The problem? We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. We know passing efficiency is correlated with winning. Putting this aside we could argue that at the very least situational running is important right (think red zone work, short yardage situations to extend drives and running out the clock in the 4th quarter)? That is where Zeke can point to his value?

Thankfully FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers.
Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/

Because winning matters, let’s start with closing out games.

If we look at all runs in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys were ahead we can look at how each run increased or decreased our win probability.


Win Probability Added in the 4th:

2018: Cowboys ranked 7th overall (Hat tip to Dak)

2018: Zeke ranked 22nd

Last 3 years: Zeke lead in attempts but ranked 26th in win probability added.





Field goals in the red zone get teams beat. Surely Zeke shined in the red zone?


Red zone runs by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 10th overall

2018: Zeke ranked 16th in EPA and 28th in success rate

Last 3 years: Zeke ranked 11th in EPA and 10th in success rate

Staying on the field and wearing opposing defenses down is something we have preached since Zeke was drafted. Hopefully this year we don’t fear sending out our defense as much as we have in our recent past. How much has Zeke helped our defense by extending drives on the ground?


Short yardage runs in open field by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 4th overall

2018: Zeke’s EPA ranked 10th, his success rate of 67% was good for 11th

Well Zeke helps Dak right? And QB is the most important position in all of sports right? Zeke draws extra defenders into the box and makes our play action more effective right?



So yes QBs do well when they run play-action. No, we don't need an efficient RB/game to achieve that enhancement.

Look, as I have long acknowledged and accepted and stated as much in this post….The Cowboys are very likely to pay Zeke, make him fabulously wealthy and set some benchmarks other RBs look to hurdle (cough) in coming years. So let’s talk about salary cap efficiency since we’re here

“According to data from Overthecap, the share of average team salary allocated to all rostered running backs has fallen from 6.8 percent of spending in 2013 to 4.5 percent in 2019. Zeke’s salary alone in his optioned fifth year will represent 4.5 percent of the Cowboy’s salary cap. If Zeke signs an extension before the 2020 season, his cap hit combined with the rest of Dallas’s spend at the running back position will likely be double the league average.”

So if Zeke is going to lead to the Cowboys spending roughly double what the league will then we should expect Zeke to be worth double what a replacement level back is worth, right? Well you remember his 2018 wins above replacement number? Zero. Point. Two.

So is Zeke a transcendent talent? What exactly other than volume and counting stats would make you think he was?

And before you answer take a look at this:



^^^

This is a good take. Speciilty backs who post big efficiency numbers on minuscule volume are likely not better than Zeke. If they were they'd get more volume! However, Zeke likely isn't appreciably better than a lot of RBs who are in committees and share the load. He's just higher paid, more famous and in a better offense.

As we stand and breath nothing but the Cowboys stuffing Zeke with volume and inflating his counting stats points to Zeke being a transcendent talent. In fact you could say he’s been quite average. And this is depressing. When not wanting to pay Zeke I at least knew he was tremendous. I knew he was a special talent. At least we were paying a Hall of Famer! An objective look at his 3 years career to date presents a very different picture. Cognitive dissonance will cause many to dismiss this post. That's fine.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But no one is entitled to their own facts.

You don't need to watch the movie but Frozen had a hit song attached to it. You should check it out.

 

[buybuydandavis]

So is Zeke that….a transcendent talent?
That's the question right?

Not exactly. Closer:
*Will* Zeke be a transcendental talent for the years we're paying him elite money?

The details of the existing contract and how much of his remaining rookie contract he'll have to play complicates it some, but the relevant question is about the future, not the past.

The limited shelf life of bell cow RBs is what makes this tough. Transcendental or not, how many more years of play *like this* do you expect? We've had 2 and 2/3rds so far. How many more?

Emmitt was elite for 5 years. Some extremely rare few can do it longer. Most can't do it that long.

And Zeke doesn't shy from hits. He's a tough yards guy, and we use him extra in short yardage. That stacks the deck against him.

 

[Sydla]

Name 2-3 rb’s we can bring in on the cheap that can carry the rock 25-35 times a game, not get injured, and produce at least 1,250 yds for us...

Well we brought a bum off the street in McFadden and he ran for around 1100 yards in like 13 games on a team that had slop at QB.

So it’s not like it’s impossible.

 

[Sydla]

Where’s the evidence Zeke can be replaced? We’ve seen Bell be replaced. We’ve seen Gurley replaced and he has an injury history and got paid.

You kind of refute your point right there.

Two teams with what most people assume were elite backs found suitable replacements on the cheap.

 

[CF74]

Well we brought a bum off the street in McFadden and he ran for around 1100 yards in like 13 games on a team that had slop at QB.

So it’s not like it’s impossible.

Yeah but we missed the playoffs...