How Special is Ezekiel?

[Sydla]

It's interesting to watch the Zeke homers attack the poster instead of actually trying to refute and digest the data presented.

Tells you really all you need to know. That bringing Zeke back and paying him big bucks is more emotional for many than actually rational.

 

[blumayne38]

This is exausting, all i have to do is watch a replay of a play action pass from a camera angle behind the QB. To see how valuable and how much attention and respect other players and defenses give zeke.

 

[Sydla]

This is an intricate, complex, and very logical demonstration of how stats don't tell nearly the whole story...

Explain how.

There has to be more reasoning behind this than just the "eye test".

 

[Toruk_Makto]

my question is where is s barkley in these 'advanced' stats?
they dont seem to be there.
if zeke does not stand out and barkley is so far from the leader list, it begs to question how predictive these stats are.

Barkley was 8th in forced missed tackles to Zeke's 35th. He was 13th in Yards per route run to Zeke's 19th. He was 1st in breakaway percentage Zeke finished 15th.

As a rookie.

 

[CowboyRoy]

we can watch they both were great in their own way..dont use the well Zeke gets more carrys ect and thats the only resason..

NEWSFLASH: ES was NOT THE BEST BACK in the league in his ERA either, not in all category's, but when he needed to get the yards he got them, when he needed the big block he got it, he played through injury and was a back ho used the amount of carries accumulated over long period of time to be the all time back.. others retired early or were on throw happy teams and most would agree Barry Sanders was the best back in many ways, they both were great along with Thurman Thomas an a few others they were all ELITE..Using specific stats to fit your narrative doesnt work it just shows you want to have a way to discredit zeke because you dont like him..Oh and BTW ES held out twice not once and Zeke has every right given the CBA said rookies after 3 years of service can rework their contracts, hes exorcising that right..

you cant take that away from him, hes elite no matter the stat you try and use to say otherwise..​

How elite was he in TD's last year for a RB? Not very. Couldn't even pick up 4th and 1 or 3rd and short. He was sooo bad that Dak had to start doing it for him.

 

[stilltheguru]

Lol how ridiculous to make this your standard

I dont discuss football with dudes that like to slurp one year wonders not even associated with their team

 

[Kaiser]

As far as fan support (not that he cares) Zeke would have a lot more support had he waited another season. People also wouldn't have such a bitter taste if we knew Zeke could stay out of trouble. As always though fans = hypocrites. Im guilty myself.

I was surprised also, but his cap hit is 8 Million this year and 9 Million next year. So the impact on the cap isn't going to be massively bigger either way. I have the feeling they are doing it now because the sides aren't that far apart, both sides have said as much. But I have no idea what the real situation is.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Zeke does mean more to this team than his stats show.

One thing you can not find a stat for is defenses having to be aware and account for him. Im not talking about stacked boxes. Im talking about his presence. You'll also have a hard time stating out the toll our oline combined with Zeke's physicality takes on a defense. The combination of the two can cripple an opponents will.

That said I think this is a great post @Toruk_Makto and I appreciate you taking the time.

I personally hope we can re-sign him too a manageable deal, maybe something that will allow us to flip him in the next 2 or 3 years when we have an heir.

I dont know his shelf life, but I do know he hasn't been busting the long runs he did his rookie season and I cant help but think his physical style may have robbed him some of his long speed.

Appreciate these types of posts. Cheers.

 

[Sydla]

Numbers also make average players look good when surrounded by talent, it works both ways..

When u watch Zeke play you realize the guy is a beast not to mention he was a Top 5 Pick..

Numbers only tell part of the story so unless you really know the game, you might rank certain players higher or lower but it’s a team sport. There’s way too many variables that can effect those numbers...

Jerry is going to pay because he’s old school. He likes ball control offenses, that’s why he invested so heavily in the o-line. Zeke is his cherry on top...

I don't think the premise is that Elliott isn't a good running back. Or even a great one.

The premise here is whether he really is worht all that money and cap space if the stats show, while good, he's not appreciably better than other RBs.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Quoting PFF and "538 came up with a metric" isn't analysis, its the textbook definition of cherry picking things to support a bias.

Its fine to hate Zeke and its fine to argue he will be overpaid (he probably will be). But cherry picking "YPC in a night game where the opposing QB is a Virgo" is nonsense, especially when the person posting follows that by claiming intellectual superiority.

Especially when you follow it with tantrum statements like "Zeke can't break long runs".

Really? Really? Cherry picking?

I looked at receiving, overall rushing, situational rushing, missed tackles, fumbles, long runs, play action, volume vs efficiency plot, yards after contact per rush and have since talked about stacked boxes.

Somehow that's cherry picking?

Feel free to cherry pick some efficiency stats I missed.

 

[CF74]

I don't think the premise is that Elliott isn't a good running back. Or even a great one.

The premise here is whether he really is worht all that money and cap space if the stats show, while good, he's not appreciably better than other RBs.

I get that but this team is run and built for him or his skillset.. We run a 90’s offense, KM is only going to disguise it...

 

[Bob-Lillys-War]

After this Zeke negotiation, i'm begginning to think he, or his agent, is 'get some therapy' special .

 

[mattjames2010]

Zeke actually has talent

I don’t think anyone disputes that, however the OP has a similar opinion to mine about RBs and value of the position

It is what it is in today’s league and it won’t be changing. Zeke is a great back in the wrong era

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Hilarious, so the OP posts one of the most comprehensive breakdowns of Zeke’s career, with FACTS to back it up and all the Zeke lovers can do is say “screw stats” except when they want to use his total yards as the reason for him being the best RB.

Then all they can do is mock the OP for posting a lengthy, factual and sensible post as to why Zeke isn’t worth it and he ain’t all that. That pretty much sums up homerism to a T.

Cognitive dissonance.

Honestly, I have been surprised this year how poorly Zeke has performed when you looka t his career through the lens of efficiency and his competitors.

And as you can see i've been mulling on this for some time. The tweet posting efficiency vs volume I came across the 22nd of July.

Reaction isn't surprising if not disappointing.

 

[mattjames2010]

I get that but this team is run and built for him or his skillset.. We run a 90’s offense, KM is only going to disguise it...

It’s built around the strength of the o-line, we had this style before Zeke got here and an RB that was statistically better than Zeke

 

[CF74]

@Toruk_Makto you’re likely to get more to agree with you if you said Zeke is trying to get paid now because his style of play will not afford him to many more seasons. He might be out of the league in 3-5 years the way he plays...

 

[waldoputty]

Barkley was 8th in forced missed tackles to Zeke's 35th. He was 13th in Yards per route run to Zeke's 19th. He was 1st in breakaway percentage Zeke finished 15th.

As a rookie.

so where is barkley on those lists on the OP?

 

[CF74]

It’s built around the strength of the o-line, we had this style before Zeke got here and an RB that was statistically better than Zeke

Yes we’ve been a run oriented team for a long time, hence skillset comment...

 

[Sydla]

I get that but this team is run and built for him or his skillset.. We run a 90’s offense, KM is only going to disguise it...

This is a fallacy based on the data. The team is built to run the ball behind this OL. It was no built to just feature Elliott and only Elliott could run the ball here.

The stats show that Elliott isn't appreciably better or more efficient at running the ball than other, lesser thought of (and paid) TBs. Note, I am not saying he's not good. But what the data shows is that while good, Elliott isn't far and away better than a lot of other TBs.

Going a step further, to do what we've done to date with how this team has been built, do we need to pay Elliott $17MM a year to do that? I think the answer is no.

 

[aria]

Barkley was 8th in forced missed tackles to Zeke's 35th. He was 13th in Yards per route run to Zeke's 19th. He was 1st in breakaway percentage Zeke finished 15th.

As a rookie.

And behind a much worse O line.