How Special is Ezekiel?

[stilltheguru]

You kind of refute your point right there.

Two teams with what most people assume were elite backs found suitable replacements on the cheap.

They aren’t Zeke is my point fella.

 

[Rogerthat12]

 

[CWR]

Morris actually had very similar stats to Zeke, he just had less carries (in 2017)

This is the problem with the RB position, the gap between good, great, and elite isn’t very wide.

There is no doubt in my mind that if we traded Zeke away or cut him loose, we could find an RB in the second or third round that would come in and produce enough that Zeke would be an afterthought

I have nothing against Zeke personally as a player, it’s just how the RB position has been since around 2005 or 2006.

Im not saying Morris is a bad back, but hes 30 and one dimensional. Theres a huge difference right now between him and Zeke imo.

 

[CWR]

Not exactly. Closer:
*Will* Zeke be a transcendental talent for the years we're paying him elite money?

The details of the existing contract and how much of his remaining rookie contract he'll have to play complicates it some, but the relevant question is about the future, not the past.

The limited shelf life of bell cow RBs is what makes this tough. Transcendental or not, how many more years of play *like this* do you expect? We've had 2 and 2/3rds so far. How many more?

Emmitt was elite for 5 years. Some extremely rare few can do it longer. Most can't do it that long.

And Zeke doesn't shy from hits. He's a tough yards guy, and we use him extra in short yardage. That stacks the deck against him.

True, and he got caught from behind much more often last year than his rookie year. In 2016 if he saw day light he was going to the house.

 

[khiladi]

Run percentage against a stacked box:
2016: 12th
2017: 18th
2018: 20th

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#yards

Your own opinion? Yes. Your own facts? No.




What you should take away from this is that we gave Zeke the ball a lot and he wasn't efficient. So maybe we don't need to pay double what the league is paying RBs?

You want Zeke getting more opportunities if you're paying him more than you are others. That part of the equation makes sense. You would also expect him to do more with it....because you are paying him more than you are others. Got to have it both ways.

Run percentage is NOT the same as volume.. basic math. A guy running way more against stacked boxes will obviously become less efficient, considering he’s running against conditions that aren’t even close to as favorable as guys that don’t run it as often. He’s putting in way more work.

This fallacious argument you try and rest your argument on was also evident when you brought up efficiency in short yardage situations, while Zeke ran 43 times, meaning over 26 times more than number 2 in terms of volume above him in Connor. That’s not anywhere close to normalizing stats where they can form an adequate basis. What is clear is despite the fact Zeke is running that much in short yardage situations and defenses keying in on him, knowing the Cowboys will call his number, he is incredibly efficient.

The reality is the RB is forcing defensive looks that QBs are supposed to exploit, but Dak can’t exploit them worth anything. Zeke is doing what he is supposed to do with it, but the QB is not. Zeke is measuring himself against GURLEY in terms of PAY, not with relation to QB pay.

You are operating under a fallacious paradigm. Nobody says pay Zeke what franchise QBs make.

 

[khiladi]

FALSE. Zeke doesnt "lead the league in facing stacked boxes." In fact hes middle of the pack.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#yards

Don’t embarrass yourself. ‘Facing stacked boxes’ meaning VOLUME, and that too by a LARGE volume, thus my comment in the same sentence that he is forcing defensive looks that would make any QB that was worth a grain of salt lick his lips. Your quote is about rushing yards, where people have higher runs per carry based on much lower volumes. Though they may have a higher percentage of stacked boxes per the amount of rushes, the volume is significant lower.

Nick Chubbs for example had over 100 less rushing attempts than Zeke. Royce Freeman over 170 less rushing attempts, and these guys were at the top in term of percentages of stacked boxes with respect to their rushers, but nowhere close to amount of rushes with Zeke. It isn’t even comparable to Zeke and what he’s seeing for the amount he runs.

None of these backs that even come in situational situations run at that volume, while Zeke is basically seeing these numbers all day, while his QB floundered around and Zeke is WORKING. Troy Hambrick averaged 5 YPC behind Emmitt Smith, but couldn’t carry any load during a whole game. His YPC in these situational instances were better than Emmitt, but he couldn’t carry Emmitt’s jock nor did he force defenses to bring men to your box that much.

 

[Sydla]

They aren’t Zeke is my point fella.

LOL. You arguing that Zeke is much better than Bell before he held out?

Stop. There isn’t a significant difference between Bell then, Zeke now and Gurley.

 

[stilltheguru]

LOL. You arguing that Zeke is much better than Bell before he held out?

Stop. There isn’t a significant difference between Bell then, Zeke now and Gurley.

Not much better but enough to where I know the difference. Bell wasn’t durable and Gurley has had an up and down career truth be told. Zeke been Zeke since day 1. B b but oline. Not trying to hear that. Those oline boys was in and out the lineup all year and Zeke was still Zeke.

 

[Sydla]

Not much better but enough to where I know the difference. Bell wasn’t durable and Gurley has had an up and down career truth be told. Zeke been Zeke since day 1. B b but oline. Not trying to hear that. Those oline boys was in and out the lineup all year and Zeke was still Zeke.

Well if Zeke is this irreplaceable TB that we have to bring back at a huge number, it would stand to reason that he would have to be way better than two TBs who saw their production matched by cheaper options.

You are actually making the other argument here.

 

[StuckMojo]

If you keep Zeke then he needs to be paid like a top 3 running back.

The value of a player changes depending on the system he plays in.

Zeke is extremely valuable in Dallas because he plays in an old, 1990's run- oriented offense built by a HC who lives in 1992.

Zeke would be less valuable in a place like KC who actually run a modern offense. KC would never pay Zeke $15M a year because he would not be a valuable player there. They lost Kareem Hunt in the middle of the season and were a Dee Ford offsides from the beating the Patriots.

We lose Zeke and we are dead. So he is valuable. But that is because we are still in the 1990's when it comes to offensive design.

Zeke would kill it in an Andy Reid offense.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Despite many of the things you said being wrong (Morris saw more 8 man boxes than Zeke did in 2017 and overall the last 3 years Zeke has averages about 20th for all RBs in percentage of runs facing a stacked box)... Let me see if I understand you correctly.

Zeke was able to lead the league in yards per game every single year of his career in this offense but somehow that same offense held him back from being efficient? It was the qb and LT which has sapped Zeke’s ability to break tackles and have long runs? It is Garrett keeping Zeke from short yardage success? Throw out all the stats but rushing yards essentially? That's your argument?

Let me ask you this if Zeke was averaging 900 yards per year instead would you excuse it and pay him top dollar because of these "mitigating factors?"

He isn't so that means nothing.

Why was the offensive passing game so bad before Cooper got here?


Your answer lies there.

 

[Northern_Cowboy]

You’ve heard me say it a million times that I do not want to pay a RB. I do not believe in it. It is the least important position on offense. Elite production can be found more readily later in the draft. Yeah I said it. And i've said it before. I also know that the Cowboys are going to keep Zeke. This isn't about that.

A funny thing happens when I say I would not pay a RB. They point to Emmitt and other big time RBs that have led their teams to the promised land. They say they agree with me in theory but that I need to be more nuanced. I need to make exceptions for truly transcendent talents. So is Zeke that….a transcendent talent?

That's the question right?

I've always assumed he would be awesome. When we drafted him i'd assumed he would be awesome. As he's racked up awards I've assumed he was awesome. I was wrong. Let's investigate.


The counting stats speak for themselves...

Rushing yards:

2016: 1,631 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1

2017: 983 || League Rank: #10; League Rank Per Game: #1

2018: 1,434 || League Rank: #1; League Rank Per Game: #1


His receiving work has shown steady improvement

Receptions Per Game:

2016: 2.13

2017: 2.6

2018: 5.13


Receiving Yards Per Game:

2016: 24.2

2017: 26.9

2018: 37.8


The awards speak for themselves.

2x Pro Bowl (2016, 2018)

First-Team All Pro (2016)

Second-Team All Pro (2018)

PFWA All-Rookie Team (2016)

FedEx Ground Player of the Year (2016)


If you stop the analysis here Zeke is unarguably the most accomplished RB league wide since he has put on The Star. You could at least squint and make the argument that you pay transcendence.

However, we are better than our fathers and grandfathers. We now know that efficiency is more important than volume in everything from financial analysis, to online marketing and yes also to professional football. So how efficient is Zeke relative to his peers?

Well here we can look to PFF’s RB statistics. Now I don’t like PFF when they try to evaluate players but they can count things like a missed tackle or a fumble. And they do!
Source: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-explaining-dallas-cowboys-rb-ezekiel-elliotts-2018-pff-grade


Forced missed tackles per game among RBs

2016: 31st

2017: 40th

2018: 35th

*Last year Zeke was 1st in total yards after contact but 18th in yards after contact per carry.


Breakaway Percentage among Rbs (percentage of yards a RB gains on runs of more than 15 yards)

2018: 15th


Fumbles among RBs

2018: 1st


Yards per route run among RBs:

2016: 24th

2017: Did not qualify due to suspension

2018: 19th


Put all together and PFF’s Eric Eager found Zeke’s production in 2018 was worth just 0.2 wins above a replacement player. Zero. Point. Two. For the laymen out there...that is not a lot. For reference Mahomes who led the league in the metric checked in at 7.49. That is 37.45 times higher than Zeke. If Zeke is worth 15MM a year what do should the Chiefs pay Patrick?

Look this is not good. But what many have told me is that the Cowboys offensive line combined with Zeke is where his true value lies. Instead of having just a good running game with our line we have a great running game with Zeke. A truly overbearing force they say! So surely the results of Zeke and the line together is what is most important and we can point to that dominance right? The problem? We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. We know passing efficiency is correlated with winning. Putting this aside we could argue that at the very least situational running is important right (think red zone work, short yardage situations to extend drives and running out the clock in the 4th quarter)? That is where Zeke can point to his value?

Thankfully FiveThirtyEight ran the numbers.
Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/

Because winning matters, let’s start with closing out games.

If we look at all runs in the 4th quarter when the Cowboys were ahead we can look at how each run increased or decreased our win probability.


Win Probability Added in the 4th:

2018: Cowboys ranked 7th overall (Hat tip to Dak)

2018: Zeke ranked 22nd

Last 3 years: Zeke lead in attempts but ranked 26th in win probability added.





Field goals in the red zone get teams beat. Surely Zeke shined in the red zone?


Red zone runs by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 10th overall

2018: Zeke ranked 16th in EPA and 28th in success rate

Last 3 years: Zeke ranked 11th in EPA and 10th in success rate

Staying on the field and wearing opposing defenses down is something we have preached since Zeke was drafted. Hopefully this year we don’t fear sending out our defense as much as we have in our recent past. How much has Zeke helped our defense by extending drives on the ground?


Short yardage runs in open field by expected points added:

2018: Cowboys ranked 4th overall

2018: Zeke’s EPA ranked 10th, his success rate of 67% was good for 11th

Well Zeke helps Dak right? And QB is the most important position in all of sports right? Zeke draws extra defenders into the box and makes our play action more effective right?



So yes QBs do well when they run play-action. No, we don't need an efficient RB/game to achieve that enhancement.

Look, as I have long acknowledged and accepted and stated as much in this post….The Cowboys are very likely to pay Zeke, make him fabulously wealthy and set some benchmarks other RBs look to hurdle (cough) in coming years. So let’s talk about salary cap efficiency since we’re here

“According to data from Overthecap, the share of average team salary allocated to all rostered running backs has fallen from 6.8 percent of spending in 2013 to 4.5 percent in 2019. Zeke’s salary alone in his optioned fifth year will represent 4.5 percent of the Cowboy’s salary cap. If Zeke signs an extension before the 2020 season, his cap hit combined with the rest of Dallas’s spend at the running back position will likely be double the league average.”

So if Zeke is going to lead to the Cowboys spending roughly double what the league will then we should expect Zeke to be worth double what a replacement level back is worth, right? Well you remember his 2018 wins above replacement number? Zero. Point. Two.

So is Zeke a transcendent talent? What exactly other than volume and counting stats would make you think he was?

And before you answer take a look at this:



^^^

This is a good take. Speciilty backs who post big efficiency numbers on minuscule volume are likely not better than Zeke. If they were they'd get more volume! However, Zeke likely isn't appreciably better than a lot of RBs who are in committees and share the load. He's just higher paid, more famous and in a better offense.

As we stand and breath nothing but the Cowboys stuffing Zeke with volume and inflating his counting stats points to Zeke being a transcendent talent. In fact you could say he’s been quite average. And this is depressing. When not wanting to pay Zeke I at least knew he was tremendous. I knew he was a special talent. At least we were paying a Hall of Famer! An objective look at his 3 years career to date presents a very different picture. Cognitive dissonance will cause many to dismiss this post. That's fine.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But no one is entitled to their own facts.

Yet our Points per game have gone down for 3 consecutive seasons taking out 2015 for obvious reasons

2014...29.2 ppg
2016...26.3 ppg...Zeke's rookie year
2017...22.1 ppg...I know Zeke mised 6 games
2018...21.2 ppg...Zeke played the entire season

Zeke is a good/great running back but many teams in the NFL without a back like Zeke average at least that if not more points per game, so really how important is he to the offense

 

[Direwolf63]

If you keep Zeke then he needs to be paid like a top 3 running back.


Zeke would kill it in an Andy Reid offense.

Probably. But that's not the point.

My point is that Andy Reid doesn't need Zeke. And he certainly doesn't need to pay $15M a year for a RB. But the Cowboys do.

 

[Dale]

I guess my overarching question to the original question is this:

I'm reading that Zeke is average. I've long read that Dak is average. I've been reading for even longer that Witten was washed up, and that his replacements were non-existent last year. The almighty offensive line is in decline. Oh, and our head coach and GM stink.

How in the world has this franchise been so consistently strong for the last three seasons?

I realize none of this addresses the root question, but it's just the follow-up question that rings in my mind as we all -- myself included -- tear down our roster.

 

[CWR]

Don’t embarrass yourself. ‘Facing stacked boxes’ meaning VOLUME, and that too by a LARGE volume, thus my comment in the same sentence that he is forcing defensive looks that would make any QB that was worth a grain of salt lick his lips. Your quote is about rushing yards, where people have higher runs per carry based on much lower volumes. Though they may have a higher percentage of stacked boxes per the amount of rushes, the volume is significant lower.

Nick Chubbs for example had over 100 less rushing attempts than Zeke. Royce Freeman over 170 less rushing attempts, and these guys were at the top in term of percentages of stacked boxes with respect to their rushers, but nowhere close to amount of rushes with Zeke. It isn’t even comparable to Zeke and what he’s seeing for the amount he runs.

None of these backs that even come in situational situations run at that volume, while Zeke is basically seeing these numbers all day, while his QB floundered around and Zeke is WORKING. Troy Hambrick averaged 5 YPC behind Emmitt Smith, but couldn’t carry any load during a whole game. His YPC in these situational instances were better than Emmitt, but he couldn’t carry Emmitt’s jock nor did he force defenses to bring men to your box that much.

I have no idea what your blabbering about. The quote is not only about rushing yards, scroll to the right lol. You said he leads the league in stacked boxes. He doesnt so FALSE. Here is Next Gens definition, which is the stat I sent you the link for. Calm down lol

8+ Defenders in the Box (8+D%)
On every play, Next Gen Stats calculates how many defenders are stacked in the box at snap. Using that logic, DIB% calculates how often does a rusher see 8 or more defenders in the box against them

 

[CWR]

If you keep Zeke then he needs to be paid like a top 3 running back.


Zeke would kill it in an Andy Reid offense.

Yeah I cant imagine Zeke not obliterating defenses in an Andy Reid offense.

 

[khiladi]

I have no idea what your blabbering about. You said he leads the league in stacked boxes. He doesnt so FALSE. Here is Next Gens definition, which is the stat I sent you the link for. Calm down lol

8+ Defenders in the Box (8+D%)
On every play, Next Gen Stats calculates how many defenders are stacked in the box at snap. Using that logic, DIB% calculates how often does a rusher see 8 or more defenders in the box against them

You have no idea what I’m ‘blabbering about’, because it’s becoming apparent you have reading comprehension problems and you don’t understand statistics. What I stated was:

This is a argument because Zeke’s inefficiency is dictated by the fact he faces more stacked boxes than any other running back in the game and has a garbage QB that can’t make a team pay, via the THE LOOkS ZEKE CAUSES.

Facing way more stacked boxes refers to AMOUNT, not YPC and percentages. Further, percentages is NOT volume, so the statistics you referenced don’t normalize for volume, because Zeke is carrying the ball way more than any of these guys, facing more stacked boxes and our basic QB can’t make defenses pay.

Basically you are trying to claim it’s Linehan fault and not Dak, even though Linehan throughout his career loved to throw the ball and challenge deep. There is nothing to indicate we wouldn’t be attacking deep if we had a pocket passer at QB with Zeke in the backfield.

 

[Dale]

@Toruk_Makto, not to shy away from the overall point, I will do my best to provide my counter argument.

I think the Cowboys have found a winning formula in part by deviating from the league norm in our approach. We've crafted an identify of our own, backed by a rock-solid ground game and offensive line, and passing efficiency. It somewhat mimics Seattle's roadmap, and it's difficult to prepare for when so much of the rest of the league is trying to be New Orleans or Los Angeles. (A philosophy I strongly doubt we'd be able to duplicate with our current personnel.)

And therein lies Zeke's value, in my opinion. You're entirely correct in pointing out he's a volume runner. But he's a volume performer at a position where so few players can produce at a high volume. It plays into the team's identity -- an identity that has produced a fair amount of success ever since Dallas first implemented it with Demarco Murray.

I think we need Zeke to maximize our potential over the next few seasons. I just can't imagine a fill-in player not causing major issues for this offense. But I also have zero doubt that we will regret a long-term deal for Zeke. I imagine he has three more years, max, of being able to perform at his current level/volume. The reality is he's a depreciating asset at a position few others value the way we do. Throw in the fact that he's in danger of being suspended every season, and it truly feels like we are bidding against ourselves in our efforts to retain him.

 

[G2]

I think Elliott is a dumb young man, but a complete RB. You're not letting him walk and simply "Next man for the job" your way out of it. Or, RBBC. No.
No one on the roster can carry the load.

Who, Pollard?

Wouldn't it be great if we could take a page from some football movie where all the players take league minimum.
They could all Uber.
They could shop together and buy bulk.
Take showers in shifts.

That all being said, if you could work a trade deal for a real RB or a real good draft pick deal - then Go!

 

[CWR]

You have no idea what I’m ‘blabbering about’, because it’s becoming apparent you have reading comprehension problems and you don’t understand statistics. What I stated was:



Facing way more stacked boxes refers to AMOUNT, not YPC and percentages. Further, percentages is NOT volume, so the statistics you referenced don’t normalize for volume, because Dak is carrying the ball way more than any of these guys, facing more stacked boxes and our basic QB can’t make defenses pay.

Basically you are trying to claim it’s Linehan fault and not Dak, even though Linehan throughout his career loved to throw the ball and challenge deep. There is nothing to indicate we wouldn’t be attacking deep if we had a pocket passer at QB with Zeke in the backfield.

Maybe you need to take a closer look at the list. Guys like Melvin Gordon, Chubb, Conor ect are all getting volume. You're acting as if their percentages are higher because they rarely touch the ball and thats far from the case.

Youre also reading way too deep. I didn't mention Dak or Linehan anywhere.