Its all percentages. Onside kick is already a low percentage. Scoring a td in 1:30 with no timeouts is also a low % from around midfield. We were at the redzone and it was 4th and 5. Go for TD its already a stretch even if you make the FG
Unless the offense scores a TD on 4th and 5, the clock gets eaten up.
It's likely that, if they get the first, the clock will still be running. Unless,
they call the perfect play against the right defense to get the 1st AND
stop the clock.
Odds are, even if you score, you'll only have time for one hail mary play.
Or, you MAKE the FG and have time for a few plays to get the TD.
Either way, you need the onside kick. Which, now more than ever, is low percentage anyway.