The Cowboys cap issues were more of a problem for fans than the actual teams.
Here are the quarterbacks taken in the first 3 rounds in the last 3 years: K Murray, D Jones, D Haskins, D Lock, Will Grier, B Mayfield, S Darnold, J Allen, J Rosen, L Jackson, M Rudolph, M Trubisky, P Mahomes, D Watson, D Kizer, D Webb, CJ Beathard
Good luck hitting on a replacement with that list. You've got a better chance of getting a non-NFL calibre QB than you do an improvement.
Ok, just shooting off the cuff, I'd take the following off that list over Dak without even thinking about it:
Watson, Mahomes, Jackson, Darnold, Allen, Murray. so on a list of 17 Quarterbacks, over 1/3 or more than 33% of them are an upgrade over Dak. Hell, he's already been out played head to head by 2 of them this year and they're only in their 2nd year under center.
Tough to tell on the guys taken in this years draft but in 2 years Lock will be looked at as a stud in my opinion. Murray is averaging almost 250 yards per game and has a 2:1 TD to INT ratio, playing on a garbage team. Their WR#1 is Larry Fitzgerald at 36 years old. Murray is the leading rusher on that team by more than 100 yards. Doing all this as a rookie on a team with pretty much zero talent compared to our roster. Imagine what Kyler Murray would do with the smorgasboard of thoroughbreds at his disposal in Dallas
Why first 3 rounds of the draft? Break down that list by year and I'm going with the 1st/2nd round guys because I agree with you the odds of finding a franchise QB go down precipitously once you get beyond round 2. I"m not using round 3 and beyond for my analysis because I don't think the Cowboys should have the mentality of drafting a "franchise" qb for the next decade beyond round 2. Not sure why you settled on the first 3 rounds but I'm guessing it's because it makes for a more palatable "pro Dak" argument.
Here are your round 1 and 2 guys for the last 3 years:
2017: Trubisky/Mahomes/Watson/Kizer (Absolutely 2 of those guys, Mahomes and Watson, are head and shoulders above Dak. Trubisky is probably comparable, the drop off to the extent that there is one, is not large. Agree Kizer is way below Dak)
2018: Mayfield/Darnold/Allen/Rosen/Jackson (As stated above, 2 of those guys Darnold and Allen, have already out played Dak head to head this year. Mayfield would be dynamite in our offense and Lamar Jackson would be a huge upgrade as well. So there's 80% of that class that would be a huge upgrade over Dak. a 4 out of 5 chance of getting a big improvement on a rookie contract that would be a fraction of Dak's asking price.
2019: Hard to tell with rookies but right now I'd take Kyler Murray over Dak without breaking a sweat. And Lock will prove to be better by this time next year. But let's go back to this discussion in a year and see where this class is. Comparing a 4th year starter to a rookie halfway through his 1st year is a bit premature.
End of day--if we are smart and do whatever is necessary to get a high 1st round pick the odds of getting a stud are actually real good. Not low.
that would be the way to do it. That would be the smart way to go. Which is exactly why I expect us to sign Dak for $40 million and "hope" for the best.