They should play it that way in case they don’t convert. I think you should plan for an out. That’s part of why I don’t got for it on first TD. If they don’t I’d call that dumb as well. Otherwise you’re placing the balance on conversion.
That's exactly what I said you're suggesting. That's the bad approach. Leaving time--any time--is bad if you make the 2-point conversion.
Sure, that initial stop is the same in both cases. You need the stop and you need the second TD no matter what decision you make. The difference is whether you're giving them ANOTHER possession or not.
Nobody would rather be down 9 points, just like nobody would rather miss the two-pointer and be down 2 points at the end. We'd rather be down 7 points. We really want to make that two-pointer, because the road is much harder otherwise. But by going for it early, at least there IS a road if you miss it.
I’m ok with giving them another possession if that means leaving us some time in case we need it.
Argue it however you want to. I’m arguing based on how I see it. It doesn’t have to fit in round pegs.
He showed some tools, but was never particularly good. I don't think he was fast enough at processing information and he had a penchant for choking when things got tight. I romanticize him as the last vestige of my favorite coach growing up.
But why would you leave them another possession when, by going for it early, you can choose not to do so (assuming you make the two-pointer)? There's only downside there.
We obviously aren’t going to agree on all aspects of this topic. And that’s fine. I stand by my argument and feel I made a compelling case for the conventional wisdom that’s been used in most of these situations in the NFL.
I’d still prefer opting for the 1 possession scenario being down 8 than risking being down 9. It’s really that simple. The rest of the tactical situations could vary and arguable pending what happens after that.
Okay. As long as you understand you're just moving the risk, not reducing it.
Just because the 2 pt play didn't work at that point in the game, does not mean it wouldn't have worked later, there are several variables that would come into play to draw that conclusion.
I get everything you just said. I do. But I just think you have to factor in probability into the equation. If I know I need two possessions, great. But if I can't get two possessions, then that knowledge is useless. And we don't know we would be 0-2 had we done it the way it Should have been done
To me the HC should put his team in the very best position to win a game, not solve statistical theories on the sidelines. By going for 2 that early, it made it virtually impossible to win the game. That's not putting your team in the best position to win, IMO. I do realize that the odds of converting the 2 pt play are the same, and if we had waited, we may have very well lost the game. But at the time of the decision, I do not know the outcome, so I can't factor that into my thought process. It's simply what gives my team the best chance to win, and nothing will convince me that with the time left, the D we have, no QB pressure, not being able to cover any WR all day it seems, that risking moving it to a 2 possession game when we didn't have to do that was the smart call. Super happy it worked out. Great game. But I just don't agree with the decision.
What "We" are talking about?....um not everyone. The problem I see is people thinking the decision any other way to the win is stupid.
It’s marginal either way IMO mathematically . I simply prefer the 1 possession scenario which doesn’t have anything to do with the analytics. I suppose each teams coach’s instincts could be different a psyche. I’m assuming Riverboat Mike doesn’t have a good feel for his team yet.
