Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

[SteveTheCowboy]

So if you make the 2 point conversion...does that change the OTHER team's "mathematical analysis"? Bet some of you never even considered that.

 

[Diehardblues]

Diehard’s position can be summarized in one word...

“feels”...

Which is a critical aspect of these risky decisions which are based on instincts and feel of your team and the game . And why the emotions and momentum can influence the decision and results . All of which can’t be measured mathematically or analytical.

Football isn’t a robotic game. It involves humans and why I think the more proven methods of conventional wisdom better apply and mostly used.

It’s interesting I hadn’t heard much about this until our coach took this approach or at least used it as his explanation.

 

[Diehardblues]

So if you make the 2 point conversion...does that change the OTHER team's "mathematical analysis"? Bet some of you never even considered that.

Great question. I bet they’d prefer being up by 9 and 2 possessions.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It’s marginal either way IMO mathematically . I simply prefer the 1 possession scenario which doesn’t have anything to do with the analytics. I suppose each teams coach’s instincts could be different a psyche. I’m assuming Riverboat Mike doesn’t have a good feel for his team yet.

Why would you say that? He made the call that you argue is bad if the team is going to fold emotionally. They did the opposite. Seems like he had a great feel for his team.

Can't help myself: there is no one-possession scenario. In both scenarios, you leave the two-point attempt needing an extra possession or not needing an extra possession. In orther words: why do we call down 8 a one-possession game but seem unwilling to call down 15 a two-possession game?

 

[CarolinaFathead]

It’s marginal either way IMO mathematically . I simply prefer the 1 possession scenario which doesn’t have anything to do with the analytics. I suppose each teams coach’s instincts could be different a psyche. I’m assuming Riverboat Mike doesn’t have a good feel for his team yet.

Except I’d be willing to wager money that if MM had opted for the XP on the first TD and then tried to score as fast he could on the second TD (which is what you’re advocating he should do on this thread lol) and we converted the two point play to tie the game and subsequently kicked off to ATL and they kicked a FG because they had a comfortable amount of time left to drive the down the field, you’d be calling MM stupid for not slow playing the clock on the second TD. Then you’d be arguing how stupid MM was for giving ATL the ball back with time to drive down the field and win the game.

I see what you’re doing lol

 

[streetcredit]

if there's 30s left in the game, it must be quite valuable to know that it's impossible to score twice

 

[JD_KaPow]

So if you make the 2 point conversion...does that change the OTHER team's "mathematical analysis"? Bet some of you never even considered that.

It probably does.

Up 7 points or 8 points, you know it's possible (possible, not certain) for the other team to force overtime with one more possession. So you'll presumably be more aggressive trying to generate first downs on your possession.
Up 9 points, you know they need 2 possessions. You should have it locked up as long as you don't allow a quick-strike score or a short field. So you're less aggressive on offense: the risk of turning it over is more important than the risk of giving them a little more time for the first of the two needed possessions. And you're less aggressive on defense: you're more concerned about getting beaten deep than you are about letting them march down the field.

To my mind, all those factors work in favor of going for 2 early. Remember, if you end up down 9, you can take the FG first if you need to, so that prevent defense really works for you.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

Which is a critical aspect of these risky decisions which are based on instincts and feel of your team and the game . And why the emotions and momentum can influence the decision and results . All of which can’t be measured mathematically or analytical.

Football isn’t a robotic game. It involves humans and why I think the more proven methods of conventional wisdom better apply and mostly used.

It’s interesting I hadn’t heard much about this until our coach took this approach or at least used it as his explanation.

but you’re arguing that coaches SHOULDN’T follow conventional wisdom by slow playing the clock and instead should try to score the second TD as fast as they can down 8 points.

lol which is it dude?

Conventional wisdom good or conventional wisdom bad?

 

[Diehardblues]

Why would you say that? He made the call that you argue is bad if the team is going to fold emotionally. They did the opposite. Seems like he had a great feel for his team.

Can't help myself: there is no one-possession scenario. In both scenarios, you leave the two-point attempt needing an extra possession or not needing an extra possession.

Obviously you haven’t grasped my message. I’ve argued the emotion and momentum is greater after the 2nd TD. He took that opportunity out.

And the gaff by Atlanta saved the result not his decision.

I’m not sure why anyone would rather be down by 9 instead of 8? But I’m open to hear that argument .

 

[Diehardblues]

but you’re arguing that coaches SHOULDN’T follow conventional wisdom by slow playing the clock and instead should try to score the second TD as fast as they can.

lol which is it dude?

Conventional wisdom good or conventional wisdom bad?

It’s a little of both. And why it’s not set in stone . Initially you go with reducing to 1 possession. That’s the basis of my argument.

There’s several different moving pieces after that. I’m not sold you shouldn’t leave any time on the clock after 2nd TD.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Obviously you haven’t grasped my message. I’ve argued the emotion and momentum is greater after the 2nd TD. He took that opportunity out.

Right, and there's no evidence to support that position. No way to argue about it. All I know is that it wasn't an issue Sunday, not remotely. And I've seen plenty of teams, down by insurmountable margins, work very hard at scoring at the end of games. Professional football players don't fold their tents like you think they will. They play football. It's what they do.

I’m not sure why anyone would rather be down by 9 instead of 8? But I’m open to hear that argument .

You know that's a false framing. Nobody wants to fail the two-pointer. But asking why I'd rather be down by 9 than 8 is exactly the same as asking why, at the end, I'd rather be down 2 than tied. You're assuming the failure of the 2-pointer.
I'd rather be down 7.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

Obviously you haven’t grasped my message. I’ve argued the emotion and momentum is greater after the 2nd TD. He took that opportunity out.

And the gaff by Atlanta saved the result not his decision.

I’m not sure why anyone would rather be down by 9 instead of 8? But I’m open to hear that argument .

What?

what evidence are you providing that “emotion and momentum is greater after the second td”?

This statement is literally arguing that a two point conversion is more likely to succeed if you wait.

This is a mathematical fallacy. It’s completely irrational and illogical and has NO evidence to support it. It’s a baseless argument. .

 

[CarolinaFathead]

It’s a little of both. And why it’s not set in stone . Initially you go with reducing to 1 possession. That’s the basis of my argument.

There’s several different moving pieces after that. I’m not sold you shouldn’t leave any time on the clock after 2nd TD.

It’s a little of both. And why it’s not set in stone . Initially you go with reducing to 1 possession. That’s the basis of my argument.

There’s several different moving pieces after that. I’m not sold you shouldn’t leave any time on the clock after 2nd TD.

Your “little bit of both” would lead you to making decisions that are worse in every possible scenario.

 

[Diehardblues]

Why would you say that? He made the call that you argue is bad if the team is going to fold emotionally. They did the opposite. Seems like he had a great feel for his team.

Can't help myself: there is no one-possession scenario. In both scenarios, you leave the two-point attempt needing an extra possession or not needing an extra possession. In orther words: why do we call down 8 a one-possession game but seem unwilling to call down 15 a two-possession game?

8 point game is referred to as a1 possession game. Do you not understand why or just disagree ?

 

[CarolinaFathead]

8 point game is referred to as a1 possession game. Do you not understand why or just disagree ?

its a one possession game 50% of the time.

Do you not understand that?

that means it’s a two possession game 50% of the time.

It’s absolutely objectively true that it is not definitely a one possession game. In fact it’s just as likely to be a two possession game.

The problem with you is that you would prefer not to know what it is until as late in the game as possible.

 

[Diehardblues]

Your “little bit of both” would lead you to making decisions that are worse in every possible scenario.

You’re certainly entitled to your opinion. I can only argue mine.

 

[JD_KaPow]

8 point game is referred to as a1 possession game. Do you not understand why or just disagree ?

I 100% agree that an 8-point game is referred to as a one-possession game. It's wrong and it's stupid, but people definitely refer to it that way.

 

[Diehardblues]

its a one possession game 50% of the time.

Do you not understand that?

It’s a potential 1 possession every time. Theres 50% chance you convert the 2 point conversion.

Are you saying you’d rather be down 9 points than 8?

 

[Diehardblues]

I 100% agree that an 8-point game is referred to as a one-possession game. It's wrong and it's stupid, but people definitely refer to it that way.

You’re entitled to your opinion. It would Certainly explain our discrepancy in this argument if we can’t agree on that basis.

I’d rather be down 8 points than 9. Can we score 9 in one possession?

 

[CarolinaFathead]

It’s a potential 1 possession every time. Theres 50% chance you convert the 2 point conversion.

Are you saying you’d rather be down 9 points than 8?

ffs no....

I’m saying you’re arguing that it is definitively a one possession game.

That’s flat out wrong.

Period.

end of story.

you don’t know what it is until the conversion either fails or succeeds and that’s a 50/50 proposition.

that means it’s just as “correct” to say that being 8 points down is a two possession game because it’s JUST as likely as a one possession game ie 50/50.

the bottom line is that you don’t know until the conversion fails or succeeds and you’d rather not know for as late in the game as you possibly can and for no good reason.