Should the Cowboys have gone for 2 on the 1st or 2nd TD?

[JD_KaPow]

It’s a potential 1 possession every time. Theres 50% chance you convert the 2 point conversion.

Are you saying you’d rather be down 9 points than 8?

I like how "one-possession" suddenly turned into "potential one-possession game."

 

[CarolinaFathead]

I like how "one-possession" suddenly turned into "potential one-possession game."

Yeah lol.

I guess it must also be a “potential two possession game” as well but he’ll never call it that even though it’s just as likely.

 

[JD_KaPow]

You’re entitled to your opinion. It would Certainly explain our discrepancy in this argument if we can’t agree on that basis.

I’d rather be down 8 points than 9. Can we score 9 in one possession?

Stop with the fake question that assumes you fail the two-pointer if you go for it the first time but does not assume you fail the two-pointer if you go for it the second time. I know you understand it, because you've fallen back to arguing that "emotion" and "momentum" are the determining factors.

I'd rather have two paths to victory than one path to victory, especially when one of the paths (make the 2-pointer) is identical. (And your idea of leaving time at the end of an 8-point game is simply terrible strategy, with no benefit whatsoever: not even "emotion" or "momentum" would favor that).

 

[Diehardblues]

Except I’d be willing to wager money that if MM had opted for the XP on the first TD and then tried to score as fast he could on the second TD (which is what you’re advocating he should do on this thread lol) and we converted the two point play to tie the game and subsequently kicked off to ATL and they kicked a FG because they had a comfortable amount of time left to drive the down the field, you’d be calling MM stupid for not slow playing the clock on the second TD. Then you’d be arguing how stupid MM was for giving ATL the ball back with time to drive down the field and win the game.

I see what you’re doing lol

If we had converted on the first TD then it sets us up completely different. But IMO the risk is too great cause it leaves you behind 9 points and 2 possessions rather than 8 points and one possession .

And why being down 8 and 1 possession is ultimately more favorable than 9 and 2 possessions.

Going for the 2 early is only a better scenario if you make it.

 

[Diehardblues]

Stop with the fake question that assumes you fail the two-pointer if you go for it the first time but does not assume you fail the two-pointer if you go for it the second time. I know you understand it, because you've fallen back to arguing that "emotion" and "momentum" are the determining factors.

I'd rather have two paths to victory than one path to victory, especially when one of the paths (make the 2-pointer) is identical. (And your idea of leaving time at the end of an 8-point game is simply terrible strategy, with no benefit whatsoever: not even "emotion" or "momentum" would favor that).

You have to assume the risk if you fail the conversion the first time. If the percentages were higher I’d be more open . But if they’re basically the same I could never support being 9 points down versus 8.

And I’m assuming you’d agree since you haven’t responded to this questions pertaining .

 

[JD_KaPow]

You have to assume the risk if you fail the conversion the first time. If the percentages were higher I’d be more open . But if they’re basically the same I could never support being 9 points down versus 8.

And I’m assuming you’d agree since you haven’t responded to this the questions pertaining .

You have to assume the risk EITHER WAY. It's the exact same risk. There's no way to get out of assuming the risk.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

Ahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

 

[Diehardblues]

Except I’d be willing to wager money that if MM had opted for the XP on the first TD and then tried to score as fast he could on the second TD (which is what you’re advocating he should do on this thread lol) and we converted the two point play to tie the game and subsequently kicked off to ATL and they kicked a FG because they had a comfortable amount of time left to drive the down the field, you’d be calling MM stupid for not slow playing the clock on the second TD. Then you’d be arguing how stupid MM was for giving ATL the ball back with time to drive down the field and win the game.

I see what you’re doing lol

I haven’t advocated scoring fast on the next possession. We haven’t established anything about the next possession. Too many variables beginning with our opponent possibly scoring again or running out the clock or down to only time for 1 possession.

 

[Diehardblues]

Stop with the fake question that assumes you fail the two-pointer if you go for it the first time but does not assume you fail the two-pointer if you go for it the second time. I know you understand it, because you've fallen back to arguing that "emotion" and "momentum" are the determining factors.

I'd rather have two paths to victory than one path to victory, especially when one of the paths (make the 2-pointer) is identical. (And your idea of leaving time at the end of an 8-point game is simply terrible strategy, with no benefit whatsoever: not even "emotion" or "momentum" would favor that).

The question is critical because that’s where the failed 1st attempt leaves you. It’s the basis of my argument.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

The question is critical because that’s where the failed 1st attempt leaves you. It’s the basis of my argument.

What do you mean where it leaves you?

If you fail the two point conversion with 15 seconds on the clock you’re in the same position BUT with less time to make up for failing!

Jesus Christ, how can you not see this?

lol

 

[Diehardblues]

What do you mean where it leaves you?

If you fail the two point conversion with 15 seconds on the clock you’re in the same position BUT with less time to make up for failing!

Jesus Christ, how can you not see this?

lol

You’re trying to frame the question stipulating the amount of time which we haven’t established.

If anyone would rather be 9 points down rather than 8, I’m all ears. I’d love to hear this argument

 

[Smashin222]

That math is based on thousands of data points. It's not 2+2=4

No it isn't. It's based on game theory and access to information. Game theory isn't based on "data points" or data collection it is based on math and logic theory.

 

[Diehardblues]

You have to assume the risk EITHER WAY. It's the exact same risk. There's no way to get out of assuming the risk.

Of course there is a way to reduce the risk of being down 9 points and 2 possessions. You kick the extra point.

And live for the next possession to extend the game. Because there’s no guarantees of another possession much less 2 more .

That’s the reality beyond the analytics.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

You’re trying to frame the question stipulating the amount of time which we haven’t established.

If anyone would rather be 9 points down rather than 8, I’m all ears. I’d love to hear this argument

Lol...

would you be Rather down 2 point are tied?

That’s the equivalent question in your preferred strategy dude lmao

things you’re objectively wrong about.

1. An 8 point game is not a one possession game. You don’t know what it is. It’s just as likely, LITERALLY, to be a 2 possession game. You won’t know until the conversion is attempted what it is.

2. That attempting the two point conversion late in the game because of “emotion and momentum” is more likely to succeed is absolute horse crap. This isn’t just wrong, it’s insanely and absurdly wrong. In fact, what data we have (it’s cherry picked data from a small sample so it’s not significant to me) shows that since 2016, 2 point conversions late in games only succeed 42% of the time which if it is a significant statistical fact of the game, shreds your “emotion and momentum” argument. At best, it’s 50/50 and if you look at this cherry picked data, it is plausibly worse. I don’t put any stock in it BUT at least there is some data to support it. There is NO data supporting your ridiculous assertion that two point conversions will be more successful late in the game because of “emotion and momentum”. This is crap and you can’t support it. It’s all in your head and “feels”.

3. That even if you’re going to choose to be down 8 points versus attempting to be down 7, that a coach should STILL try and score the next touchdown as fast as possible. If you coached my team and did this leading to a tie and the other team kicked a FG because you gifted them an unnecessary extra possession with ample time to win, I’d want you fired Monday morning.

 

[CarolinaFathead]

Of course there is a way to reduce the risk of being down 9 points and 2 possessions. You kick the extra point.

And live for the next possession to extend the game. Because there’s no guarantees of another possession much less 2 more .

That’s the reality beyond the analytics.

There is a 50% chance it’s a two possession game at 4:57 or a 50% chance it’s a two possession game when ever you decide to do it later in the game.

The only difference between you and MM is that he left himself a plausible amount of time to recover a 50% chance of failing the conversion and you leave yourself no time to recover.

and you’re seriously going to call him stupid?

 

[Diehardblues]

Lol...

would you be Rather down 2 point are tied?

That’s the equivalent question in your preferred strategy dude lmao

things you’re objectively wrong about.

1. An 8 point game is not a one possession game. You don’t know what it is. It’s just as likely, LITERALLY, to be a 2 possession game. You won’t know until the conversion is attempted what it is.

2. That attempting the two point conversion late in the game because “emotion and momentum” is more likely to succeed is absolute horse crap. This isn’t just wrong, it’s insanely and absurdly wrong. In fact, what data we have (it’s cherry picked data from a small sample so it’s not significant to me) shows that since 2016, 2 point conversions late in games only succeed 42% of the time which if it is a significant statical fact of the game, shreds your “emotion and momentum” argument. At best, it’s 50/50 and if you look at this cherry picked data, it is plausibly worse. I don’t put any stock in it BUT at least there is some data to support it. There is NO data supporting your ridiculous assertion that two point conversions will be more successful late in the game because of “emotion and momentum”. This is crap and you can’t support it.

If we can’t agree 8 points is a potential 1 point possession then there’s no need to continue the argument. That’s the basis of my argument and the conventional wisdom.

I suppose you’ll argue 7 points isn’t a 1 possession game next since it’s not automatic either. Lol

This is really becoming ridiculous. You’re just arguing to argue now. I really don’t care if we can’t establish this basis.

 

[Diehardblues]

There is a 50% chance it’s a two possession game at 4:57 or a 50% chance it’s a two possession game when ever you decide to do it later in the game.

The only difference between you and MM is that he left himself a plausible amount of time to recover a 50% chance of failing the conversion and you leave yourself no time to recover.

and you’re seriously going to call him stupid?

I’m not calling him stupid. I called the decision dumb. Smart men can make dumb decisions.

Do you want to argue that now. Lol

 

[CarolinaFathead]

If we can’t agree 8 points is a potential 1 point possession then there’s no need to continue the argument. That’s the basis of my argument and the conventional wisdom.

I suppose you’ll argue 7 points isn’t a 1 possession game next since it’s not automatic either. Lol

This is really becoming ridiculous. You’re just arguing to argue now. I really don’t care if we can’t establish this basis.

what is the percentage chance that an 8 point lead is a two possession game?

 

[CarolinaFathead]

I’m not calling him stupid. I called the decision dumb. Smart men can make dumb decisions.

Lol

you would make the same decision to go for two, because you HAVE to, but leave yourself less time to recover failing.

Whose decision is dumb again?

 

[Diehardblues]

Lol

you would make the same decision but leave yourself less time to recover failing.

Whose decision is dumb again?

Boring.. I’m done.