Only 20% of QBs drafted in 1st have great careers

ondaedg · Feb 19, 2021

Zekeats said:
But whats the percentages in round 2? 3? 4?.....

I know they’re worse but didn’t dig into the data.

Typhus · Feb 19, 2021

Bobhaze said:
Too many fans buy into the idea that you can just go pick “the QB tree” and get a good one. Finding a good QB is by far the hardest position to fill adequately, which is why so many teams are willing to take big chances in the draft. And why the market for QB pay is so high.

Its just as hard maybe even less, than finding a starting LT.
I have always believed in the appropriate build model, and once achieved you can throw darts at the QB position until you finally hit.
Work the cap and draft well, never invest in injured rehab projects, and never pay a second contract to any RB ever.
So as you can see,, Jerry doesnt agree with me.

CATCH17 · Feb 19, 2021

catiii said:
We've seen 4.5 years of Dak. Nothing but stats-most of which were from playing when behind or vs flex defenses in garbage time. When do you call it quits on a guy? 9 years? 10? We did that with Garrett and how did that work out. He can't beat good teams.
We're doomed to 8-8 if he signs. Again.
Zeke was Jerry's 1st mistake and he needs to learn from it.

Great post.

IrishAnto · Feb 19, 2021

catiii said:
We've seen 4.5 years of Dak. Nothing but stats-most of which were from playing when behind or vs flex defenses in garbage time. When do you call it quits on a guy? 9 years? 10? We did that with Garrett and how did that work out. He can't beat good teams.
We're doomed to 8-8 if he signs. Again.
Zeke was Jerry's 1st mistake and he needs to learn from it.

First mistake????
More like 31st

buybuydandavis · Feb 19, 2021

Bobhaze said:
Too many fans buy into the idea that you can just go pick “the QB tree” and get a good one. Finding a good QB is by far the hardest position to fill adequately, which is why so many teams are willing to take big chances in the draft. And why the market for QB pay is so high.

The crapshoot nature of QBs should *discourage* teams from taking big chances in the draft.
If they're bad at identifying QB talent they should broaden their search and invest more roster spots and later round picks on QBs. We got Dak in the 4th and Romo as an UDFA. The GOAT was a 6th round pick. Kurt Warner was bagging groceries.

buybuydandavis · Feb 19, 2021

ABQCOWBOY said:
I never suggested anything of the kind. But, you can call it for what it is. Dak and his agent have had very good deals in front of them. They have always walked away. Maybe this is a deal that can't be done and I just believe that fans should not be short sighted over all of this. If Dak and his representation want a deal that the team can't provide, then they should find a deal that allows the team to move on but fans, they need to understand that this is a two way deal. It's not all on the team to get a deal done. The player must also want to do a deal. I can't say I've seen that from the Prescott side, as yet.

What is fair market?

A "fair market" deal must also take into account what Jerry and the Star bring to the table that other teams don't. If a player doesn't factor that into his contract demands, he shouldn't be a Cowboy.

buybuydandavis · Feb 19, 2021

ABQCOWBOY said:
What do the Vegas betting lines say about QBs who leave through FA? There is a point where it just doesn't make financial sense to do something. That's where, I think, this negotiation with Dak is. He's leaving IMO and he always was because that's how his agent has elected to negotiate this. /QUOTE]

Wasn't Dak's agent the same guy who took Kirk Cousins to free agency?

I think Cousins has always been the model Dak's team was looking at. They've always looked like they wanted to get to free agency to me.

Cowboy Brian · Feb 19, 2021

ondaedg said:
60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

Draft picks are the most overrated commodity in the NFL.

For a 1st rounder you can secure a young, borderline all-pro. See: Amari Cooper

Same for a 2nd rounder....

The amount of busts, even at the top of the first round, is truly insane.

Building through the draft is not the only way.

ABQCOWBOY · Feb 19, 2021

buybuydandavis said:
Wasn't Dak's agent the same guy who took Kirk Cousins to free agency?

No, that's Mike McCartney of PS&E, who BTW, also represents Sean Lee. But you are on the right track. France, in addition to Dak, had something like three 1st round picks, just this past year, unsigned and threatening holding out, on rookie deals that are wage slotted. Grady Jarrett threatened holdouts with the Falcons and eventually got the 3rd largest contract, behind Fletcher Cox and Aaron Donald. Fletcher Cox is also his client, who shockingly, held out on the Eagles to force a deal. He eventually signed a record deal in 2016. Aaron Donald, also his client and would you believe it, a holdout, also signed a record deal in 2018. Tony Romo, BTW, was also his client and also got a record deal as we all know.

I don't like the way France does business.

csirl · Feb 19, 2021

Ok, we're being told only 40% of 1st round QBs work out. But the big question is how does this compare with the other ways of getting a QB. Any stats on the following:

1. Drafting a lower round QB as a development prospect.
2. JAG free agent.
3. Big money FA.
4. Trade.
5. CFL/XFL etc.

Are any of these better than 1st round QB?

Diehardblues · Feb 19, 2021

Cowboy Brian said:
Draft picks are the most overrated commodity in the NFL.

For a 1st rounder you can secure a young, borderline all-pro. See: Amari Cooper

Same for a 2nd rounder....

The amount of busts, even at the top of the first round, is truly insane.

Building through the draft is not the only way.

But it’s the soundest way and in Cap era cheapest with rookie contracts.

Bust in the early rounds has always been prevalent.

Landry and most of the greats only hit with proven starters on about half of their draft picks. 50% of drafts picks becoming starters for duration of their careers is a proven successful method.

Diehardblues · Feb 19, 2021

csirl said:
Ok, we're being told only 40% of 1st round QBs work out. But the big question is how does this compare with the other ways of getting a QB. Any stats on the following:

1. Drafting a lower round QB as a development prospect.
2. JAG free agent.
3. Big money FA.
4. Trade.
5. CFL/XFL etc.

Are any of these better than 1st round QB?

No, none are as proven as 1st and 2nd round picks which accounts for over 75% of the starting QB’s in the NFL.

TwistedL0g1k · Feb 19, 2021

ondaedg said:
60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

Not sure where you got your statistics?

Nevertheless, it is true that taking a QB in the first round is risky, and the highest picks in round 1 are extraordinarily expensive to trade up for. Yet taking QB's in later rounds is even more risky.

There was a study that correlated pro-bowl appearances by QB's with the round they were drafted in. First round QB's had a much higher chance of appearing in a pro bowl than second rounders, and second rounders had a higher chance than third rounders. After the third round, the probability dropped off like a cliff.

Yes, first round QB's are a risky investment, but they also have the highest probability of success on average. The last time Dallas drafted a QB in the first round worked out well for them, although they didn't have to trade-up for that #1 pick that yielded Aikman.

buybuydandavis · Feb 19, 2021

ABQCOWBOY said:
No, that's Mike McCartney of PS&E, who BTW, also represents Sean Lee. But you are on the right track. France, in addition to Dak, had something like three 1st round picks, just this past year, unsigned and threatening holding out, on rookie deals that are wage slotted. Grady Jarrett threatened holdouts with the Falcons and eventually got the 3rd largest contract, behind Fletcher Cox and Aaron Donald. Fletcher Cox is also his client, who shockingly, held out on the Eagles to force a deal. He eventually signed a record deal in 2016. Aaron Donald, also his client and would you believe it, a holdout, also signed a record deal in 2018. Tony Romo, BTW, was also his client and also got a record deal as we all know.

I don't like the way France does business.

Thanks. I had wanted to know about Dak's agent.

All those cases forced a deal, but still signed with their teams. How many of his guys make it to free agency?

buybuydandavis · Feb 19, 2021

TwistedL0g1k said:
Yes, first round QB's are a risky investment, but they also have the highest probability of success on average.

It would simply be pitiful if they weren't the highest probability of success. More important is whether they're the best return on investment.

You mention Aikman. Our next two franchise QBs were an UDFA and a fourth round pick. Fantastic return on investment from the second two.

ABQCOWBOY · Feb 19, 2021

buybuydandavis said:
Thanks. I had wanted to know about Dak's agent.

All those cases forced a deal, but still signed with their teams. How many of his guys make it to free agency?

I don't have stats on that but yes, most teams fold, that's true. But I think the more relevant concern is to look at what happens to teams that sign those deals. Romo and the Cowboys, never had cap to bring in enough talent. Wasted a lot of careers in those years. Jarrett, that Atlanta defense has fallen off a cliff. A lot of talent left the building after that signing. Cox, that team went from Super Bowl to the number 6 pick overall in the NFL in record time. Donald signed a deal and we see this year what it's forcing in LA. Look at the wheels coming off there. It's the same M.O. after all of these deals get done. Yeah, his clients make out but the teams, they all tank.

erod · Feb 19, 2021

ondaedg said:
60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

At any given time, there are only about 4-5 elite quarterbacks in the NFL.

And now they're so expensive on the second contract, they're as much as a curse as a luxury.

Football is in a bad place right now.

TwistedL0g1k · Feb 19, 2021

buybuydandavis said:
It would simply be pitiful if they weren't the highest probability of success. More important is whether they're the best return on investment.

You mention Aikman. Our next two franchise QBs were an UDFA and a fourth round pick. Fantastic return on investment from the second two.

I agree the team got a fantastic return on investment out of the "next two", yet Aikman had 3 championships and the other two combined for zero. (of course there are many many other factors involved- most notably the lack of a championship caliber defense)

One could argue that the investment in the "next two"- a single fourth round pick, is a gross under-investment in the single most important position on the team.

KB1122 · Feb 19, 2021

What's the percentage for fourth rounders?

Nav22 · Feb 19, 2021

Turk said:
A lot of your posts indicate a room temperature IQ.

Awwwww... I’m sorry if I struck a nerve, stranger.

I’d bet any amount of money you’re one of the anti-Dak troglodytes I was referring to. Such inferior ilk.
:lmao2:

Only 20% of QBs drafted in 1st have great careers

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