Listen, I get it, Saquon Barkley is a freak athlete, a really nice guy, and a big-play waiting to happen. I think he proved himself as the best big-play specialist in the NFL last year and I suspect that will continue into 2019. But, as I have been for this very same reason since he was in college, I'm tapping the brakes on crowning him the best running back in the league --as much of the rest of the sports world is already doing.
I did a breakdown after the season, as I had done for their respective college seasons before Barkley went pro, detailing what their stats look like when you subtract their single biggest run or play from each game of a singular season. Just one per contest. The results, factoring in receptions as well, confirmed my observation that Barkley is a back who lives & dies by the big-play --but is not the every-down runner yet (including collegiately) that you expect a "great" to be.
For this missive, I'll focus only on their rushing totals --although it's equally applicable to their receiving stats as well. But I've got a buddy who says, "Zeke is the best guy in the league to just turn around & hand the ball to." I think this breakdown demonstrates that quite clearly.
So, for posterity, Zeke & Saquon's "rushing" totals for 2018 were:
Saquon Barkley --
261 carries,
1,307 yards,
5.0 yards-per-carry
Ezekiel Elliott --
304 carries,
1,434 yards,
4.7 yards-per-carry
However, when you subtract their single biggest run from each game (as I've done for the following stats), this comparison turns very different:
Saquon Barkley --
245 carries,
783 yards,
3.19 yards-per-carry
Ezekiel Elliott --
289 carries,
1,199 yards,
4.14 yards-per-carry
The disparity is astonishing. Remove just 16 runs from Barkley's season (out of 261) and he drops a
*WHOPPING* 524 yards from his total! Conversely, when you take away Zeke's longest run from each game, his total drops only
235 yards.
To put it another way:
Saquon averaged
32.75 yards on only
16 carries of the season.
And he averaged
3.19 yards-per-carry over the remaining
245!
Over the course of the season, without those 16 "long" runs Barkley's average plummets from a robust 5.0 to a paltry 3.19 per-carry (almost 2 full yards less). Zeke, on the other hand, minus
his best run from each contest, falls from a 4.7-yard average to a still respectable 4.14 yards-per-carry.
For even greater perspective, if you subtract Elliott's best run from every game he still would have finished
3rd in the league in rushing. When you take away Barkley's longest runs, however, he drops from 2nd in the league in rushing all the way down to
23rd --
That is a precipitous plummet!
But while I believe those stats alone clearly distinguish Zeke as the better runner on a down-to-down basis, by a lot, and likewise demonstrate Barkley as the better big-play back, it's not until it's broken down on a game-by-game basis that the vivid difference in their contributions to their team's offensive success becomes perfectly clear. So we're going to take a more microcosmic look at this parallel to bear out the conclusion that Ezekiel Elliott remains, quite simply, the very best running back in the NFL.
So the way I'll do this for greatest visual appeal is to list their rushing totals per-week MINUS both back's single biggest run from each game. The effect is really quite eye-popping:
Week 1 --
Saquon:
17 carries,
38 yards,
2.23 YPC
Ezekiel:
14 carries,
52 yards,
3.71 YPC
Week 2 --
Saquon:
10 carries,
18 yards,
1.80 YPC
Ezekiel:
16 carries,
59 yards,
3.68 YPC
Week 3 --
Saquon:
16 carries,
58 yards,
3.62 YPC
Ezekiel:
15 carries,
101 yards,
6.73 YPC
Week 4 --
Saquon:
9 carries,
16 yards,
1.77 YPC
Ezekiel:
24 carries,
111 yards,
4.62 YPC
Week 5 --
Saquon:
14 carries,
18 yards,
1.28 YPC
Ezekiel:
19 carries,
40 yards,
2.10 YPC
Week 6 --
Saquon:
12 carries,
80 yards,
6.66 YPC
Ezekiel:
23 carries,
85 yards,
3.69 YPC
Week 7 --
Saquon:
13 carries,
28 yards,
2.15 YPC
Ezekiel:
14 carries,
27 yards,
1.92 YPC
Week 8 --
Saquon:
12 carries,
29 yards,
2.41 YPC
Ezekiel:
16 carries,
44 yards,
2.75 YPC
Week 9 --
Saquon:
19 carries,
49 yards,
2.57 YPC
Ezekiel:
18 carries,
116 yards,
6.44 YPC
Week 10 --
Saquon:
26 carries,
119 yards,
4.57 YPC
Ezekiel:
22 carries,
99 yards,
4.50 YPC
Week 11 --
Saquon:
12 carries,
50 yards,
4.16 YPC
Ezekiel:
25 carries,
105 yards,
4.20 YPC
Week 12 --
Saquon:
23 carries,
96 yards,
4.17 YPC
Ezekiel:
22 carries,
54 yards,
2.45 YPC
Week 13 --
Saquon:
13 carries,
92 yards,
7.07 YPC
Ezekiel:
27 carries,
93 yards,
3.44 YPC
Week 14 --
Saquon:
13 carries,
14 yards,
1.07 YPC
Ezekiel:
17 carries,
63 yards,
3.70 YPC
Week 15 --
Saquon:
20 carries,
37 yards,
1.85 YPC
Ezekiel:
17 carries,
68 yards,
4.00 YPC
Week 16 --
Saquon:
16 carries,
41 yards,
2.56 YPC
Ezekiel:
Did-
Not-
Play
So out of 15 games, side-by-side, subtracting their single longest runs from each contest, Zeke had a higher yards-per-carry than Saquon in 10 of those contests, outpacing Barkley by an average of: 1.48, 1.88, 3.11, 2.85, 0.82, 0.34, 3.87, 0.04, 2.63, and 2.16 yards-per-carry.
Accumulatively, those 10 games amount to --
Saquon:
142 carries,
469 yards,
3.30 YPC
Ezekiel:
168 carries,
759 yards,
4.51 YPC
Minus their one longest run from each of those games, it's clear that Zeke was the
far more productive, effective, consistent back across 2/3rds of the season and a vaster number of carries. Conversely, in the 5 games Barkley outdid Zeke, the stats are:
Saquon:
87 carries,
415 yards,
4.77 YPC
Ezekiel:
108 carries,
358 yards,
3.61 YPC
So for 5 games out of the season, minus their big runs, Saquon averaged
1.16 yards-per-carry more than Zeke --out-rushing him by
57 yards across those 5 games.
For 10 games out of the season, minus their big runs, Zeke averaged
1.20 yards-per-carry more than Saquon --out-rushing him by
290 yards across those 10 games.
Over the course of the season, minus their big runs, that amounts to
457 more
rushing yards for Zeke and nearly
1 full
yard-per-carry (
0.95) greater.
If we pit their 16th game of the season against one another (Week 16 for Saquon, Week 1 of the Playoffs for Zeke), again, subtracting their single biggest run from each game --
Saquon:
16 carries,
41 yards,
2.56 YPC
Ezekiel:
25 carries, 93 yards, 3.72 YPC
Consistently, Elliott demonstrates that he is the more productive runner, by quite a bit, across the far broader number and circumstances of their respective carries. Barkley may indeed be the better home-run hitter. But there's no question that Zeke is out there getting the dirty yards, the needed yards, Saquon is leaving on the field; and the fortunes of their teams in 2018 each reflect the natural result of that:
RECORDS --
Cowboys:
10-
6
Giants:
5-
11
This is also assessed in the fact that Zeke picked up 73 first-downs, to Saquon's 50, in one fewer game.
That's 69 more downs of offense that Zeke's legs provided for his team than Barkley did for his.
Saquon had 5 more runs of 20+ yards than Zeke (
16-to-
11) & 6 more runs of 40+ yards (
7-to-
1).
Which do you think a coach who wants to win would prefer, 11 more "explosive" plays on the season, or 69 more offensive snaps? And this whole query instantly makes me think of Emmitt Smith vs. Barry Sanders, because like I predicted before the season, the Zeke/Saquon rivalry is shaping up very much like the old debate between those greats!
Saquon, like Sanders (his idol), is the best big-play threat in the league.
Ezekiel, like Emmitt, is the best running back in the league.
Of course, this contest isn't remotely over. But in all the metrics we can currently assess, college & the pros, this is who these backs have proven themselves to be, consistently. It's extraordinary how much their college production mirrors their NFL performances. I strongly suspect this will continue, and I don't think we've seen either of their bests.
Athletically, this season should display the very best Ezekiel Elliott the world has ever seen. He is now a young 23 years old and is likely fully grown. Word is he's in the best shape of his life, has gone from 225lbs. in his rookie year (when he was the youngest player in the league) to a manly 230lbs. this offseason.
I believe we're about to see the biggest, strongest,
and fastest Ezekiel Elliott there has ever been.
And it might just be a perfect storm regarding the physical maturation of his ability being paired with all the talent surrounding him. There's no question in my mind that Zeke is coming into the best situation for a running back in the NFL to produce at a big-time level. Barkley is certain to have more than 15-minutes of fame. But when, not if, Elliott leads the NFL in rushing again, maybe to unprecedented degrees, people are going to have to start acknowledging that #21 is the #1 runner in the league.
--yeah, even if Barkley has more "big-plays" on the season.
Take those away, and Barkley is over 40%
less of a running back.
Kid's got to show me some things before he's in the same breath with Zeke...
