Saquon mania vs. Ezekiel facts

FuzzyLumpkins

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Nice deflection.

You are the one insisting on the regression being done properly. I am telling you what the proper bias is.

Yes I am deflecting from your personal attacks and focusing on the statistics. Get over yourself and get over him.

The bottom line is that a simple regression as you keep insisting on does not change the conclusion one whit.
 

aria

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Listing the results from 94% of his opportunities is not cherry-picking.

Boasting about what he did on 6% of his production as if it is the norm is the definition of cherry-picking...

"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." --Inigo Montoya, Princess Bride
Of course it’s not the norm, if it was then he wouldn’t be breaking records which is part of the reason I think he’s better than Zeke. Again, if you want to compare their two rookie seasons than use the 2016 Cowboys O line vs the 2018 Cowboys line.

If Zeke has such great vision and speed compared to Barkley then why did Barkley have eight plays of 40-plus this season with 331 touches compared to Zeke who has six plays of 40-plus in his CAREER with 978 touches?

I’ll tell you why, because Barkley is better and and was playing behind a much worse O line compared to what Zeke had in 2016, worse than Zeke had in 2017 and still worse than what Zeke had in 2018. Barkley made lemonade out lemons, Zeke has been put in a near perfect situation his entire career, including most of college.
 

Super_Kazuya

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You are the one insisting on the regression being done properly. I am telling you what the proper bias.

Yes I am deflecting from your personal attacks and focusing on the statistics. Get over yourself and get over him.

The bottom line is that a simple regression as you keep insisting on does not change the conclusion one whit.
The methodology is nonsense and so are his homer conclusions based on it. Fix the analysis and maybe I’ll take it seriously. Your deflections aren’t compelling at all.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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The methodology is nonsense and so are his homer conclusions based on it. Fix the analysis and maybe I’ll take it seriously. Your deflections aren’t compelling at all.

I did fix the analysis. The standard deviation is 10.5. The first regression is done at 31.5.

As I said, do you think using that bias is going to change the answer to support your point of view?
 

Super_Kazuya

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I did fix the analysis. The standard deviation is 10.5. The first regression is 31.5.

As I said, do you think using that bias is going to change the answer to support your point of view?
I don’t have a point of view. The discussion is stupid. It doesn’t prove what the OP thinks it does, that Zeke is better than Barkley or that “boom or bust” is better or worse than “grinding”.
Having said that, I guess I’m just going to have to mosey over to PFR and run the numbers myself so I will get back to you.
 

aria

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in m

Basically, this really isn't that hard to figure out. EZ is a better inside grinder, Barks is a better outside slasher. Now, EZ can run outside well and Barks can run inside well. Both are well rounded backs who do everything well. Each is better than the other at what they are best at.
As I’ve always said, I think they are very close but Barkley is better. I also don’t know how you can say grinders run inside and slashers run outside but Zeke is a better inside grinder? That’s contradictory to what you said about Zeke being a better grinder and I would take Barkley outside all day every day due to his movement and speed.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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I don’t have a point of view. The discussion is stupid. It doesn’t prove what the OP thinks it does, that Zeke is better than Barkley or that “boom or bust” is better or worse than “grinding”.
Having said that, I guess I’m just going to have to mosey over to PFR and run the numbers myself so I will get back to you.

What's stupid is getting as emotional over this as you have displayed and not having a horse in the race.

The regression displays how each runner performs most of the time by removing the outliers. It does show Zeke to be more consistent down in and down out whether you like it or not.
 

aria

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Honestly, I really don’t care if Barkley’s overall ypc was artificially high due to a few long runs. Like that’s supposed to be a some sort of negative? Barkley has so many other impressive stats and has broken several team and league records behind a sub par O lone and the only thing some of you can come up with is his ypc being misleading? Lol, if that’s the best you got that’s laughable.

And why can’t anyone admit how much better of an O line Zeke had his rookie year compared to what Barkley had last year? We’re talking about a top 5 O line, if not the best, versus a bottom 10 O line and his ypc average was misleading so he’s not as good?
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Honestly, I really don’t care if Barkley’s overall ypc was artificially high due to a few long runs. Like that’s supposed to be a some sort of negative? Barkley has so many other impressive stats and has broken several team and records behind a sub par O lone and the only thing some of you can come up with is his ypc being misleading? Lol, if that’s the best you got that’s laughable.

And why can’t anyone admit how much better of an O line Zeke had his rookie year compared to what Barkley had last year? We’re talking about a top 5 O line, if not the best, versus a bottom 10 O line and his ypc average was misleading so he’s not as good? Lol.

If you cannot understand how 96% of Barkley's runs only go for a bit over 3 yards a carry would be problematic then I don't know what to tell you. It translates to a bit more than one big play every other game. The other 251 carries do little to extend drives and close out games.
 

aria

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If you cannot understand how 96% of Barkley's runs only go for a bit over 3 yards a carry would be problematic then I don't know what to tell you. It translates to a bit more than one big play every other game. The other 251 carries do little to extend drives and close out games.
Are you still refusing to acknowledge the difference in O lines? It’s pointless debating with someone when they can’t take that into consideration. Whenever Zeke had a bad game it was always the O lines fault but when the Giants O line was horrendous it had nothing to do with Barkley’s ypc :rolleyes:

Based on how Zeke played during those rare games where our O line did stink it up, I’d question whether he could even break 1K yards behind the Giants O line. And I apologize Zeke doesn’t have the vision or speed to break big runs, maybe Barkley should slow down so his ypc stats aren’t so misleading.

I guess his NFL record for having the most receptions as a rookie RB and being one of 3 rookie RB’s ever to break 2K yards didn’t do much to help extend drives either.
 
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CalPolyTechnique

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Are you still refusing to acknowledge the difference in O lines? It’s pointless debating with someone when they can’t take that into consideration. Whenever Zeke had a bad game it was always the O lines fault but when the Giants O line was horrendous it had nothing to do with Barkley’s ypc :rolleyes:

Based on how Zeke played during those rare games where our O line did stink it up, I’d question whether he could even break 1K yards behind the Giants O line. And I apologize Zeke doesn’t have the vision or speed to break big runs, maybe Barkley should slow down so his ypc stats aren’t so misleading.

I guess his NFL record for having the most receptions as a rookie RB and being one of 3 rookie RB’s ever to break 2K yards don’t do much to help extend drives either.

Why yes, that’s exactly what he’s doing.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Are you still refusing to acknowledge the difference in O lines? It’s pointless debating with someone when they can’t take that into consideration. Whenever Zeke had a bad game it was always the O lines fault but when the Giants O line was horrendous it had nothing to do with Barkley’s ypc :rolleyes:

Based on how Zeke played during those rare games where our O line did stink it up, I’d question whether he could even break 1K yards behind the Giants O line. And I apologize Zeke doesn’t have the vision or speed to break big runs, maybe Barkley should slow down so his ypc stats aren’t so misleading.

I guess his NFL record for having the most receptions as a rookie RB and being one of 3 rookie RB’s ever to break 2K yards don’t do much to help extend drives either.

The difference in OL run blocking favors Zeke. Both were mediocre and close but the Giants run blocking was a tad bit better.

I agree that overall with the passing game factored Barkley is the better back. That is not what is being discussed though.
 

PoetTree

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Again, more cherry picking. Would you like me to post a highlight reel of all the runs he had where he does show great vision? How about I bring up how Zeke stepped out of bounds without a defender within 10 yards of him in what would have been a TD and possibly a win instead of a loss? Would that prove he has horrible vision?

You're making straw-man arguments and patting yourself on the back for "solving" them. Watching self-congratulatory celebrations is a hobby of mine.

#CarryOn

What I said was, "check out how bad Barkley's vision and/or instincts are" on a specific play; and then drew a logical correlation between that kind of performance to suggest that "plays like that" might be why he averaged barely over 3 yards-per-carry on 94% of his 2018 touches.

I was using the highlight-video to support the factual conclusion of the stats, not "prove" anything. The stats prove my premise. The video gives insight into why and/or how the stats wound up as they did.

I never suggested that Saquon Barkley has bad vision, full-stop. I offered video of a play in which he demonstrates bad vision and suggest that this weakness in his game is displayed by a less-than-NFL-caliber level of production @ 3 YPC.

If you go back to his college days, these instincts that many analysts suggested would hinder him at the NFL level if not fixed can be clearly seen over three years of Penn State film. He is a big-play hunter, and with that kind of athleticism, is capable of hitting it more than others. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have weaknesses; and an in-depth look at his stats clearly highlights those weakness from his only pro-campaign.


Some of you seem offended at that.


"I feel like it's my job to find a way to get that ball in the end zone on every play." --Saquon Barkley, 2018

Which might seem noble, but that's the Barry Sanders-syndrome that often leaves your offense in a less-than-stellar situation if you fail to "find a way" to get the ball into the end-zone with some uber-athletic, but ill-advised cutback jaunt.

Which is very likely what prompted Saquon's coach, Pat Shurmur, to call out his star running back in the media & explicitly state that he needs more "dirty" runs from Barkley --not just the big-plays:


https://www.sny.tv/giants/news/pat-shurmur-wants-dirty-runs-from-giants-saquon-barkley/300867312/

'The rookie running back has dazzled everyone with his knack for big-play gains through nine games this season but the Giants head coach said there is plenty more to learn for Barkley.

"He's had success bouncing runs in the past and gotten big gains out of them, but there also is what I call a dirty 4-, 5-, 6-yard run that he has the be willing to take as well," Shurmur told reporters earlier this week.

Barkley has accumulated 1,116 yards from scrimmage -- third most in the league -- but has done so with boom-or-bust type plays.

He has rushed for 20 yards or more on seven carries and 40 yards or more on three carries this season but only has 22 carries between four and six yards while 19 carries for negative yards and 15 for no gain.

"It's the judgment and the vision of the ball carrier," Shurmur added. "He's a rookie, and he's certainly done a great job for us, but there's still a lot to be learned. As he runs the ball more and more and more, he'll get a feel for when it's right to bounce it and right to stick it up in there."

Meanwhile, Barkley says he is not trying to overthink things.

"It is tempting (to make an extra cut)," he said.'

---

His own coach publicly called him out for the kind of performance that the stats I've broken down here demonstrate, and a bunch of y'all are hootin' & hollerin' like a bunch of Howler Monkeys that I'm some homer hating on Saquon.

Once again for those in the cheap-seats: Barkley averaged barely over 3 YPC on 94% of his 2018 touches. If not for his uncanny ability to hit literally just 16 big-to-biggish plays, Barkley would have had a positively disappointing season for the Giants as a rookie.

For these factual reasons, despite being a more explosive player overall, I don't think he's in the same class of "running back" as Ezekiel Elliott just yet, if he ever will be. My study of his collegiate stats likewise reveal that he never has been.

Hope you didn't sprain an elbow patting yourself on the back.

Neither you nor your elbow deserved it...
 

aria

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The difference in OL run blocking favors Zeke. Both were mediocre and close but the Giants run blocking was a tad bit better.

I agree that overall with the passing game factored Barkley is the better back. That is not what is being discussed though.
I’m referring to Zeke’s rookie O line compared to Barkley’s. Here’s a hint, Dallas was ranked #1 by most analysts even after the season, NY was bottom 5-10.
 

PoetTree

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No it isn’t. He removed the longest run from each game for no particular good reason. Like I said before,
against the Bears Barkley managed 125 yards on 24 carries and had, among others, a 29, a 22 and a 14 yard run. Where’s the outlier?

You picked one game, one of his few "complete" games all season.

I showed the accumulative stats from the entire season.

YOU, sir, are the one who is clearly cherry-picking.

"See, guys?? See??? In this one game he was consistent, so the OP's point is stupid!"

*holds up a mirror*
 

Super_Kazuya

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What's stupid is getting as emotional over this as you have displayed and not having a horse in the race.

The regression displays how each runner performs most of the time by removing the outliers. It does show Zeke to be more consistent down in and down out whether you like it or not.
Spare me the analysis of one’s emotional state over the 1s and 0s of the Internet. Had the OP simply said that the Cowboys running game is more consistent than the Giants I wouldn’t have batted an eye. Instead he removed the longest run from each game with no justification whatsoever, and then declared Zeke to be better than Barkley and Emmitt to be better than Barry for some bizarre reason. The OP is just a homer working backwards to prove what he wants to be true and your armchair psychiatry and deflections don’t change that.
 

Super_Kazuya

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You picked one game, one of his few "complete" games all season.

I showed the accumulative stats from the entire season.

YOU, sir, are the one who is clearly cherry-picking.

"See, guys?? See??? In this one game he was consistent, so the OP's point is stupid!"

*holds up a mirror*
He didn’t have a “few” consistent games, now you are just a lying troll in addition to being a troll. Your methodology is nonsense, you don’t know what an outlier is, and you’re a weird homer posting 20 year old quotes about Barry Sanders. Did I miss anything?
 

aria

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You're making straw-man arguments and patting yourself on the back for "solving" them. Watching self-congratulatory celebrations is a hobby of mine.

#CarryOn

What I said was, "check out how bad Barkley's vision and/or instincts are" on a specific play; and then drew a logical correlation between that kind of performance to suggest that "plays like that" might be why he averaged barely over 3 yards-per-carry on 94% of his 2018 touches.

I was using the highlight-video to support the factual conclusion of the stats, not "prove" anything. The stats prove my premise. The video gives insight into why and/or how the stats wound up as they did.

I never suggested that Saquon Barkley has bad vision, full-stop. I offered video of a play in which he demonstrates bad vision and suggest that this weakness in his game is displayed by a less-than-NFL-caliber level of production @ 3 YPC.

If you go back to his college days, these instincts that many analysts suggested would hinder him at the NFL level if not fixed can be clearly seen over three years of Penn State film. He is a big-play hunter, and with that kind of athleticism, is capable of hitting it more than others. But that doesn't mean he doesn't have weaknesses; and an in-depth look at his stats clearly highlights those weakness from his only pro-campaign.


Some of you seem offended at that.


"I feel like it's my job to find a way to get that ball in the end zone on every play." --Saquon Barkley, 2018

Which might seem noble, but that's the Barry Sanders-syndrome that often leaves your offense in a less-than-stellar situation if you fail to "find a way" to get the ball into the end-zone with some uber-athletic, but ill-advised cutback jaunt.

Which is very likely what prompted Saquon's coach, Pat Shurmur, to call out his star running back in the media & explicitly state that he needs more "dirty" runs from Barkley --not just the big-plays:


https://www.sny.tv/giants/news/pat-shurmur-wants-dirty-runs-from-giants-saquon-barkley/300867312/

'The rookie running back has dazzled everyone with his knack for big-play gains through nine games this season but the Giants head coach said there is plenty more to learn for Barkley.

"He's had success bouncing runs in the past and gotten big gains out of them, but there also is what I call a dirty 4-, 5-, 6-yard run that he has the be willing to take as well," Shurmur told reporters earlier this week.

Barkley has accumulated 1,116 yards from scrimmage -- third most in the league -- but has done so with boom-or-bust type plays.

He has rushed for 20 yards or more on seven carries and 40 yards or more on three carries this season but only has 22 carries between four and six yards while 19 carries for negative yards and 15 for no gain.

"It's the judgment and the vision of the ball carrier," Shurmur added. "He's a rookie, and he's certainly done a great job for us, but there's still a lot to be learned. As he runs the ball more and more and more, he'll get a feel for when it's right to bounce it and right to stick it up in there."

Meanwhile, Barkley says he is not trying to overthink things.

"It is tempting (to make an extra cut)," he said.'

---

His own coach publicly called him out for the kind of performance that the stats I've broken down here demonstrate, and a bunch of y'all are hootin' & hollerin' like a bunch of Howler Monkeys that I'm some homer hating on Saquon.

Once again for those in the cheap-seats: Barkley averaged barely over 3 YPC on 94% of his 2018 touches. If not for his uncanny ability to hit literally just 16 big-to-biggish plays, Barkley would have had a positively disappointing season for the Giants as a rookie.

For these factual reasons, despite being a more explosive player overall, I don't think he's in the same class of "running back" as Ezekiel Elliott just yet, if he ever will be. My study of his collegiate stats likewise reveal that he never has been.

Hope you didn't sprain an elbow patting yourself on the back.

Neither you nor your elbow deserved it...
TLDR.

Again, you used ONE play to try and prove an example to support what he did on the 94% of his plays, that’s illogical.

It’s hilarious that you question whether the guy who broke several all time NFL records his rookie season behind one of the worst O lines to whether he will be as good as Zeke who had one yearly record (most total yards due to most carries) behind arguably the best O line in the league. That makes perfect sense, I think you finally have me convinced.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Spare me the analysis of one’s emotional state over the 1s and 0s of the Internet. Had the OP simply said that the Cowboys running game is more consistent than the Giants I wouldn’t have batted an eye. Instead he removed the longest run from each game with no justification whatsoever, and then declared Zeke to be better than Barkley and Emmitt to be better than Barry for some bizarre reason. The OP is just a homer working backwards to prove what he wants to be true and your armchair psychiatry and deflections don’t change that.

Hey if you want to remain emotional over this more power to you.

At the end of the day the "proper" biasing comes to his conclusion just the same.
 
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