How Special is Ezekiel?

QuincyCarterEra · Aug 15, 2019

Streetwise said:
That's not all on the RB.

Exactly! But it shows Zeke doesnt command added defenders in the box, which was the claim.

Toruk_Makto · Aug 15, 2019

Streetwise said:
That's not all on the RB.

It goes against the narrative that Zeke's efficiency numbers are pedestrian because he sees more attention than others.

It simply isn't true.

Big_D · Aug 15, 2019

aikemirv said:
I don't think that is a result of coaching. I think that is checkdowns. Witten retiring took Daks favorite checkdown target away and it became Zeke.

What was their APC again? Even if it was a coaching decision, I don't know why you would complain given the numbers below.

Witten 8.9 -2017
Zeke 7.4 -2018

These are designed pass plays, getting the ball in the hands of your speed players, the playmakers who can score from anywhere on the field. Specially with 3 quality receivers and finally some movement with Moore calling plays. Like McCaffrey, Barkley, Bell, James White, Alvin Kamara, David Johnson etc etc You think those teams are checking down? lol Zeke falls in that category. The TE is the outlet in that situation, not the other way around. I'm even throwing Pollard in the mix. A RB who should be heavily involved in the passing game. That is 100% a coaching issue. Get those guys out in the open. PERIOD. Witten will help move the chains, but if you think he should outrank any RB in receptions then you can expect more of the same form Garrett and company.

khiladi · Aug 15, 2019

CowboysWillRise said:
Maybe you need to take a closer look at the list. Guys like Melvin Gordon, Chubb, Conor ect are all getting volume. You're acting as if their percentages are higher because they rarely touch the ball and thats far from the case.

Youre also reading way too deep. I didn't mention Dak or Linehan anywhere.

So now you are changing the subject, which is clearly that I was referencing VOLUME. They are not getting ANYWHERE close to the volume Zeke is, which is why I clearly referenced the amount of touches. We are comparing them to ZEKE’S WORKLOAD, not with respect to themselves.

An of course you mentioned Linehan implicitly when you mentioned Andy Reid in the same threat getting more out of Zeke, as if it boils down to play-calling.

khiladi · Aug 15, 2019

Toruk_Makto said:
It goes against the narrative that Zeke's efficiency numbers are pedestrian because he sees more attention than others.

It simply isn't true.

Of course it is, considering VOLUME. You have no clue about normalization, meaning your take would equate the efficiency of Hambrick as a back-up greater than Emmitt as a starter. That’s how ridiculously absurd it is.

JD_KaPow · Aug 15, 2019

stilltheguru said:
Screw stats. Watch games. He’s the best running back. Durable, consistent, short yard, long runs, blocking, whatever you want.

I do watch games. A lot of games. I don't see it.

I see a very good player with exceptional durability, but not a guy who changes games the way David Johnson and Gurley did pre-injuries, or Saquon looks like he will, or McCaffrey and Kamara can. Where are the "long runs" you're talking about? He's an okay receiver, but by the numbers and by eye he's not a special one: sure, he can catch a bunch of screens and dumpoffs, but he's not someone you move all over the formation and threaten multiple levels of the defense with.

Yes, some of this may very well be because the scheme limits him, but why would you pay someone for talents that aren't going to be used? (And why would you trust that he's exceptional at those things when you haven't seen them?)

aikemirv · Aug 15, 2019

Zeke blows 95% of RB's away in touches and snaps.

That probably has nothing to do with yards after contact or broken tackles though......

I mean all stats are in a vacuum by themself

Kaiser · Aug 15, 2019

QuincyCarterEra said:
Exactly! But it shows Zeke doesnt command added defenders in the box, which was the claim.

But the issue is more about team's run blitzing and selling out against the short game, not just stacking the box. If Zeke has both safeties three yards closer by the time he reaches the LOS, its going to affect his YPC.

khiladi · Aug 15, 2019

aikemirv said:
Zeke blows 95% of RB's away in touches and snaps.

That probably has nothing to do with yards after contact or broken tackles though......

I mean all stats are in a vacuum by themself

People on this forum consistently conflate percentage with volume to create a false image. It shows that the people quoting stats have no clue what they are talking about in reality, because these are basic principles. Most of the problem with analytics is the guys using the data often times have no clue how to really interpret it. The medical industry is also wrought with people using stats to point one can consider it ‘lying’.

khiladi · Aug 15, 2019

Further, even non-stacked box scenarios, the opposing defense is consistently pushing there backfield closer to the line, because of Zeke. They may not be in the box, but their safeties are playing closer to the line than, say when they face a legitimate passing QB.

Kaiser · Aug 15, 2019

Toruk_Makto said:
Imagine someone quantifying how many yards someone gaine Don long runs and then using that data to determine who breaks long runs as a bad thing. Imagine thinking that.

Imagine thinking Zeke breaks a ton of long runs and being a Cowboys fan who watched all of 2017 and 2018. Imagine thinking that.

Also since I wrote the post I have it ton good authority the argument "he got more carries, which must mean he is bad" is not something that was said.

Imagine being dumb enough to argue that a percentage of something means that it doesn't exist in the first place.

That is why you are cherry picking "breakaway percentage", because its only a metric for specialty backs and not bellcows like Zeke. Tarik Cohen is #1 in that statistic because he has far fewer carries and the carries he had were in specialty sets. Compare his touches to Zeke's touches.

I'm not going to spend the time on it, but Breakaway Percentage probably rates Lucky Whitehead higher than Emmitt Smith. But I'm not dumb enough to find the numbers, misrepresent what they mean and write a two page long OP about it.

That's your job, apparently.

Kaiser · Aug 15, 2019

khiladi said:
People on this forum consistently conflate percentage with volume to create a false image. It shows that the people quoting stats have no clue what they are talking about in reality, because these are basic principles. Most of the problem with analytics is the guys using the data often times have no clue how to really interpret it. The medical industry is also wrought with people using stats to point one can consider it ‘lying’.

stilltheguru · Aug 15, 2019

JD_KaPow said:
I do watch games. A lot of games. I don't see it.

I see a very good player with exceptional durability, but not a guy who changes games the way David Johnson and Gurley did pre-injuries, or Saquon looks like he will, or McCaffrey and Kamara can. Where are the "long runs" you're talking about? He's an okay receiver, but by the numbers and by eye he's not a special one: sure, he can catch a bunch of screens and dumpoffs, but he's not someone you move all over the formation and threaten multiple levels of the defense with.

Yes, some of this may very well be because the scheme limits him, but why would you pay someone for talents that aren't going to be used? (And why would you trust that he's exceptional at those things when you haven't seen them?)

Lol ok bro.

blumayne38 · Aug 15, 2019

CowboyRoy said:
How elite was he in TD's last year for a RB? Not very. Couldn't even pick up 4th and 1 or 3rd and short. He was sooo bad that Dak had to start doing it for him.

Toruk_Makto · Aug 15, 2019

khiladi said:
Of course it is, considering VOLUME. You have no clue about normalization, meaning your take would equate the efficiency of Hambrick as a back-up greater than Emmitt as a starter. That’s how ridiculously absurd it is.

I don't know about normalization? You realize I work in finance. Deal with numbers every single day. Have a masters in this stuff.

We are talking about Zeke's efficiency numbers per carry.

People have argued his per carry numbers are impacted because he runs more against stacked boxes.

What part of Zeke doesn't run against a lot of stacked boxes don't you understand?

CWR · Aug 15, 2019

khiladi said:
So now you are changing the subject, which is clearly that I was referencing VOLUME. They are not getting ANYWHERE close to the volume Zeke is, which is why I clearly referenced the amount of touches. We are comparing them to ZEKE’S WORKLOAD, not with respect to themselves.

An of course you mentioned Linehan implicitly when you mentioned Andy Reid in the same threat getting more out of Zeke, as if it boils down to play-calling.

That take is ridiculous. If Zeke faced stacked boxes 10% of the time but he ran it 500 times a season you'd be blabbing about how he runs against more stacked boxes than anyone.

Using percentages works as long as you aren't counting someone who has a negligible count of carries.

The fact is defenses dont do anything differently for Zeke than they do Derrick Henry for example.

Toruk_Makto · Aug 15, 2019

I also like the moving goalposts....before the claim was Zeke is against stacked boxes all the time. You disprove that and now the argument is....BUT THE SAFETIES!

For 3 straight years Zeke has underperformed his peers on efficiency metrics across a ton of situations and across a slew of metrics.

And people just dismiss it outright. Amazing

mattjames2010 · Aug 15, 2019

If Zeke was with the Giants with similar stats, this place would have no problem with the OP.

Actually you could remove all links and just write three paragraphs of nonsense like our resident Fuzzy Wuzzy and everyone would agree.

Homerism is pure cancer for discussions

aikemirv · Aug 15, 2019

For all of those who think that Zekes metrics tell the story of his worth...

I have never been a football coach but I have coached a lot of basketball. Our game plans going into games were sometimes designed to stop or slow the other teams best player. That plan effected every player on the defense. We could still be in a 2-3 defense but the responsibilities changed a bit to stop a dynamic player. So while our lineup did not change, every players focus on the defense changed or was narrowed a bit.

Is this not the case in football as well? Is the Strong safeties focus the same versus the Cowboys as it is against the Packers?

Sydla · Aug 15, 2019

khiladi said:
Of course it is, considering VOLUME. You have no clue about normalization, meaning your take would equate the efficiency of Hambrick as a back-up greater than Emmitt as a starter. That’s how ridiculously absurd it is.

So I am clear, what you are saying is that because he has more "volume" than others on the list, it hurts his efficiency, correct?

How Special is Ezekiel?

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