How Special is Ezekiel?

[Kaiser]

Deal with numbers every single day. Have a masters in this stuff.

I would have guessed Law. A JD is where they teach people to take one irrelevant statistic and create a false argument around it.

 

[Kaiser]

For 3 straight years Zeke has underperformed his peers on efficiency metrics across a ton of situations and across a slew of metrics.

I made the safeties comment and never made the stacked boxes argument, but strawman gotta strawman.

And for three straight years every serious person around the NFL has considered Zeke of the elite RBs.

And you just dismiss it outright. Amazing

 

[aikemirv]

I would say that volume reflects tendancies and tendancies cause changes in defensive focus/alignment- just my take.

Predictability effects efficiency.

 

[kskboys]

I do watch games. A lot of games. I don't see it.

I see a very good player with exceptional durability, but not a guy who changes games the way David Johnson and Gurley did pre-injuries, or Saquon looks like he will, or McCaffrey and Kamara can. Where are the "long runs" you're talking about? He's an okay receiver, but by the numbers and by eye he's not a special one: sure, he can catch a bunch of screens and dumpoffs, but he's not someone you move all over the formation and threaten multiple levels of the defense with.

Yes, some of this may very well be because the scheme limits him, but why would you pay someone for talents that aren't going to be used? (And why would you trust that he's exceptional at those things when you haven't seen them?)

I've never understood the hoopla over David Johnson. It's like someone proclaimed how great he was, and everyone bought into it. His lifetime YPC is 4.1. He hit 4.6 his rook year, and it's been downhill ever since. His YPC last year was 3.6. What makes you put him in this game changing category?

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I made the safeties comment and never made the stacked boxes argument, but strawman gotta strawman.

And for three straight years every serious person around the NFL has considered Zeke of the elite RBs.

And you just dismiss it outright. Amazing

Yes. Because they enjoy counting stats.

We can do better than looking at strictly volume. And in fact many people have done exactly that.

Zeke wouldn't be the first and won't be the last person whose perception and reality diverge quite a bit upon serious scrutiny.

You are welcomed to present evidence to the contrary. Please do exactly that. Or at least provide a reasoned critic of the evidence presented. Instead you dismiss it outright because you don't want to feel as though a player on the Cowboys is not as good as you thought.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I've never understood the hoopla over David Johnson. It's like someone proclaimed how great he was, and everyone bought into it. His lifetime YPC is 4.1. He hit 4.6 his rook year, and it's been downhill ever since. His YPC last year was 3.6. What makes you put him in this game changing category?

DJ is like the exact opposite of Zeke when it comes to the environment he has been surrounded by. While Zeke has enjoyed elite run blocking the majority of his career on successful teams. Arizona has had a terrible offensive line, terrible quarterbacking on bad teams.

It goes to show you just how much RBs are dependent on their environment/surroundings.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I've never understood the hoopla over David Johnson. It's like someone proclaimed how great he was, and everyone bought into it. His lifetime YPC is 4.1. He hit 4.6 his rook year, and it's been downhill ever since. His YPC last year was 3.6. What makes you put him in this game changing category?

He was a massive factor in the passing game: they moved him all over the formation. His 2nd year (1st as a starter), he caught 80 passes with an 11+ ypc to go along with his 293/1239/4.2 rushing line. He hasn't been the same since the injury, and the Arizona offense has been a disaster the last couple years. We'll see how he is now that he's a couple years removed and maybe Arizona can put together something that resembles an NFL offense.

I'm not generally that hung up on ypc on rushing: it varies a lot from year to year. If you're somewhere in the 4s, it's probably fine. When you drop into the 3s, that's a problem. When you're in the 5s, that's a really good indicator. YPC in the passing game is a different story.

 

[Kaiser]

You are welcomed to present evidence to the contrary. Please do exactly that. Or at least provide a reasoned critic of the evidence presented. Instead you dismiss it outright because you don't want to feel as though a player on the Cowboys is not as good as you thought.

LOL! Zeke has more rushing yards over the the last three years than any other player in the NFL DESPITE MISSING 8 GAMES IN THAT STRETCH.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

LOL! Zeke has more rushing yards over the the last three years than any other player in the NFL DESPITE MISSING 8 GAMES IN THAT STRETCH.

He also has the most carries.

We all acknowledge that.

This is how a 3rd grader would judge a RB. Whose number is bigger is elementary. This is literally the point of this thread. Is moving beyond surface level analysis.

Oh and why did he miss 8 games?

 

[ShiningStar]

Zeke is special ad stats dont help. However he doesnt need the Cowboys ad the Cowboys dont know how to make it all work. Hes best to move on.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Honestly don't feel like getting too much in the middle of this, but how is WPA even calculated in this context?

Because any meaningful stat that has Zeke behind spares like Wayne Gallman and Ty Montgomery has to be highly suspect.

 

[InTheZone]

Lol oh my. Zeke is responsible for 0.2% despite teams that insist they focus on the run game. I'm willing to bet heart attack Maher is somehow much much higher

 

[aria]

I've never understood the hoopla over David Johnson. It's like someone proclaimed how great he was, and everyone bought into it. His lifetime YPC is 4.1. He hit 4.6 his rook year, and it's been downhill ever since. His YPC last year was 3.6. What makes you put him in this game changing category?

Lol, Zeke would be hard pressed to get 3.6 behind that O line with those surrounding players on offense. How can you continue to dismiss the relevancy of the O line and that our O line has been top 10, even top 5, in most categories since Zeke’s rookie year whereas Barkley and Johnson have been running behind the equivalent of a practice squad for most teams.

 

[Kaiser]

This is how a 3rd grader would judge a RB. Whose number is bigger is elementary. This is literally the point of this thread. Is moving beyond surface level analysis.

A 2nd Grader would know they give the most carries to the best backs.

But a 2nd Grader wouldn't be a blowhard hater until much later in life.

 

[aria]

LOL! Zeke has more rushing yards over the the last three years than any other player in the NFL DESPITE MISSING 8 GAMES IN THAT STRETCH.

Most running backs who have had the most carries have had the most rushing yards, that’s nothing new. Then add in a top O line and I would EXPECT him to have the most rushing yards.

Most rushing yards is also about the most worthless, meaningless stat when trying to prove how good a RB is but it’s the only stat Zeke leads in, other than fumbles which no one wants to talk about, so Zeke fan boys throw it around every chance they get while ignoring and minimizing every other more meaningful statistic.

 

[Sydla]

If the more advanced stats were way more favorable to Elliott, I suspect many people in this thread would have a much different reaction to the concept of advanced stats. But because they aren't overly favorable to Zeke, well................ you can read this thread.

 

[Madzo]

This is a great post. Thanks for sharing. A lot of people are afraid of numbers and don't want to come to terms with them, but this is real and these numbers don't lie. Zeke is a beast based on volume. But paying up for RB like Zeke will put the team in salary cap hell for years to come.

"RB's don't matter" has been a mantra for football analytics for while now and it's now becoming more common with front offices in the League. That is why Gordon is not signed, Why Bell wasn't signed long term in Pittsburgh. FO do not want to break the bank on RB's. That's mostly true, especially with the high injury probability of the position.

 

[Sydla]

This is a great post. Thanks for sharing. A lot of people are afraid of numbers and don't want to come to terms with them, but this is real and these numbers don't lie. Zeke is a beast based on volume. But paying up for RB like Zeke will put the team in salary cap hell for years to come.

"RB's don't matter" has been a mantra for football analytics for while now and it's now becoming more common with front offices in the League. That is why Gordon is not signed, Why Bell wasn't signed long term in Pittsburgh. FO do not want to break the bank on RB's. That's mostly true, especially with the high injury probability of the position.

The funniest reactions are the ones who immediately took the post to mean that Zeke stinks and that wasn't the OP's point at all.

LOL.

 

[Kaiser]

"RB's don't matter" has been a mantra for football analytics for while now and it's now becoming more common with front offices in the League. That is why Gordon is not signed, Why Bell wasn't signed long term in Pittsburgh. FO do not want to break the bank on RB's. That's mostly true, especially with the high injury probability of the position.

But you don't make contract decisions based on averages. The average 5th round pick at QB plays for the vet minimum, if they are still in the league. But Tom Brady's agent has a different argument than quoting averages.

And the OP isn't talking about Zeke's contract because we don't know what it is yet. The OP is bunch of cherry picked stats like Breakaway % that ends by calling Zeke "quite average".

No serious person believes that and yet this thread is 14 pages long.

 

[Kaiser]

This is how a 3rd grader would judge a RB. Whose number is bigger is elementary. This is literally the point of this thread. Is moving beyond surface level analysis.

BTW, please find a 3rd grader who agrees with you that Alfred Morris is a legitimate replacement for Ezekiel Elliot. From the certainty you have in your opinion of Zeke, it shouldn't be hard.