Got stats or tape on the drops?

buybuydandavis · Nov 5, 2019

Number1 said:
IMO, 50% are probably on Dak but I'd love to see tape on all of them

In Advanced Passing, Pro Football Reference has drop% and bad pass% . Drops are up 50%, bad passes are down 50%.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01.htm

buybuydandavis · Nov 5, 2019

CF74 said:
Pollards screen drop really irked me. We finally use the guy and he drops that ball. He obviously was cold from sitting on the bench all season but son catch it before u turn to run...

Three targets, one catch. Seemed like they made some effort to use Pollard in the passing game, and he didn't give us much reason to want to do that again.

Sad. At least for Pollard.

I wish they were using Austin more.

CalPolyTechnique · Nov 5, 2019

OmerV said:
And Dak doesn’t just do that either. You are trying to twist this into a different discussion. The discussion is about receivers dropping balls that should be caught, but you want to make it a discussion about how Dak isn’t perfect with every throw. But nobody is saying he is.

And you’re using an oversimplified approach to determine drops “welp, if the receiver gets his hands on it and doesn’t make the catch....it’s a drop.”

So yeah, I’d like to introduce a bit of nuance to the discussion.

And I would venture to guess you blame Gallup and Cobb for dropping some of the throws Dak’s made like when he throws behind them when they are running slants the opposite direction?

charron · Nov 5, 2019

Number1 said:
IMO, 50% are probably on Dak but I'd love to see tape on all of them

It's debatable. If the wr gets his hands on it he should catch it even if it's a difficult pass. He does make it difficult on the receivers at times but they have been catching passes all their lives and need to step up to make a dang play.

Number1 · Nov 6, 2019

buybuydandavis said:
In Advanced Passing, Pro Football Reference has drop% and bad pass% . Drops are up 50%, bad passes are down 50%.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PresDa01.htm

thanks, that's type stats I wanted to look at

from the PFF

"Drops: Receiving drops - receptions missed on balls given a reasonable (non-Odell Beckham-level) effort"

"Bad Throws: By QBs - throws that weren't catchable with normal effort"

so its about effort and somebody's eye ball test is in there - assuming it's consistent ... that's quite a year to year swing

surprisingly YAC is down about 10%

to my eye test Dak and his targets are on the same page but should make more plays
Dak can do better, but I'm not seeing many spectacular catches a la Dez or Beasley

note, Asutin, Gallup, Smith, Wilson, and Pollard, arrived with reputations for great hands,
Amari ... well, take the good and the bad,

Zman5 · Nov 6, 2019

It goes both ways for both we and the we. Big chunk of the passes caught by Dez would have been considered bad passes.

America's Cowboy · Nov 6, 2019

Number1 said:
IMO, 50% are probably on Dak but I'd love to see tape on all of them

People who don't know what they are talking about shouldn't start threads.

FuzzyLumpkins · Nov 6, 2019

OmerV said:
Drops are drops, not bad throws. The QB is responsible for bad throws, but if it is a drop, it's on the receiver, not the QB.

Actually bad throws leads to drops. When the ball is high, low, behind, or too far out in front it becomes a more difficult catch.

buybuydandavis · Nov 6, 2019

Number1 said:
thanks, that's type stats I wanted to look at

from the PFF

"Drops: Receiving drops - receptions missed on balls given a reasonable (non-Odell Beckham-level) effort"

"Bad Throws: By QBs - throws that weren't catchable with normal effort"

so its about effort and somebody's eye ball test is in there - assuming it's consistent ... that's quite a year to year swing

surprisingly YAC is down about 10%

to my eye test Dak and his targets are on the same page but should make more plays
Dak can do better, but I'm not seeing many spectacular catches a la Dez or Beasley

note, Asutin, Gallup, Smith, Wilson, and Pollard, arrived with reputations for great hands,
Amari ... well, take the good and the bad,

I don't think we're get the spectacular catches. We've got route runners who get separation. Doesn't look as exciting, but it's more reliable.

Gotta lot of speed too.

OmerV · Nov 6, 2019

CalPolyTechnique said:
And you’re using an oversimplified approach to determine drops “welp, if the receiver gets his hands on it and doesn’t make the catch....it’s a drop.”

So yeah, I’d like to introduce a bit of nuance to the discussion.

And I would venture to guess you blame Gallup and Cobb for dropping some of the throws Dak’s made like when he throws behind them when they are running slants the opposite direction?

I did not say if the receiver gets his hands on it it's a drop, I said if he can get both hands on it without having to make an extraordinary effort to do so, it's a drop. I have clearly throughout this thread excluded passes that required the receiver to dive or dramatically contort his body or where momentum was too great to slow or turn enough to get a good chance to catch the ball. You just choose to ignore that part of what I am saying because it doesn't fit with your narrative.

OmerV · Nov 6, 2019

FuzzyLumpkins said:
Actually bad throws leads to drops. When the ball is high, low, behind, or too far out in front it becomes a more difficult catch.

We've discussed that, and the point is that if the throw is too bad for the receiver to have a reasonable chance to catch the ball it qualifies as a "bad throw" and not a "drop". In other words, there are 2 different categories, 1 for a throw that is dropped that the receiver should have reasonably been able to catch, and 1 for a throw that does not allow for that, which is not a drop. The ball being a little high or a little low or a little behind does not automatically qualify as a drop if the receiver doesn't catch it, but if it is dramatically high or low or behind such that the receiver would have to make an extraordinary play to catch it, then it qualifies as a bad throw if it isn't caught.

calicowboy54 · Nov 6, 2019

ak47kaehu said:
The one drop that stuck out was the deep seam pass to cooper where he had both hands on the ball but he dropped it. It was a good pass.

The one's that stick out to me are the Gallup drops, as they are hitting him in the chest or hands and other one is the Pollard drop in last game on screen all are hitting them in the hands, players are just looking to run or hearing footsteps.. Not sure which one but they need to focus. This team is talented and they are lacking focus and attention to detail, which is the coaches responsibility to coach that in to them.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#catch-percentage

85% of Witten's passes to him are caught
74% of Coopers passes to him are caught
64% of Cobbs passes to him are caught
63% of Gallup passes to him are caught

FuzzyLumpkins · Nov 6, 2019

OmerV said:
We've discussed that, and the point is that if the throw is too bad for the receiver to have a reasonable chance to catch the ball it qualifies as a "bad throw" and not a "drop". In other words, there are 2 different categories, 1 for a throw that is dropped that the receiver should have reasonably been able to catch, and 1 for a throw that does not allow for that, which is not a drop. The ball being a little high or a little low or a little behind does not automatically qualify as a drop if the receiver doesn't catch it, but if it is dramatically high or low or behind such that the receiver would have to make an extraordinary play to catch it, then it qualifies as a bad throw if it isn't caught.

Just because the receiver could reasonably reach behind himself to make a catch doesn't mean the passer should get a pass for throwing behind.

Future · Nov 6, 2019

ak47kaehu said:
The one drop that stuck out was the deep seam pass to cooper where he had both hands on the ball but he dropped it. It was a good pass.

Great. That was a GREAT throw.

The Pollard drop on the screen was also brutal.

OmerV · Nov 6, 2019

FuzzyLumpkins said:
Just because the receiver could reasonably reach behind himself to make a catch doesn't mean the passer should get a pass for throwing behind.

Do you want to have 780 different categories of whether a missed pass was from a bad throw or a dropped pass, with each being rated on whatever fraction of an inch off of hitting the ideal spot a pass is? Where exactly is the crossover point where an incompletion is a drop or a bad throw? Is 6 inches behind a drop and 7 inches behind a bad throw? And what about factors like whether the receiver was stationary and able to move a little one way or the other, or if he was running full speed and therefore did not have the chance to slow or turn to catch a ball that was behind him?

The reality is the only reasonable measure of drops is whether the receiver has a reasonable opportunity to make a catch. The WR has the expectation to catch the pass even if it isn't an ideal throw as a long as the receiver has that opportunity. Realistically, is that not what you expect? If a receiver cannot do that, he does not survive in the NFL.

It's much like judging an error in baseball. The fielder doesn't have to miss a ball hit directly to him for it to be called an error, he just has to miss a ball that he has a reasonable expectation to catch. If he has to dive or contort his body or make an extraordinary effort and the ball deflects off his glove, it's not an error.

FuzzyLumpkins · Nov 6, 2019

OmerV said:
Do you want to have 780 different categories of whether a missed pass was from a bad throw or a dropped pass, with each being rated on whatever fraction of an inch off of hitting the ideal spot a pass is? Where exactly is the crossover point where an incompletion is a drop or a bad throw? Is 6 inches behind a drop and 7 inches behind a bad throw? And what about factors like whether the receiver was stationary and able to move a little one way or the other, or if he was running full speed and therefore did not have the chance to slow or turn to catch a ball that was behind him?

The reality is the only reasonable measure of drops is whether the receiver has a reasonable opportunity to make a catch. The WR has the expectation to catch the pass even if it isn't an ideal throw as a long as the receiver has that opportunity. Realistically, is that not what you expect? If a receiver cannot do that, he does not survive in the NFL.

It's much like judging an error in baseball. The fielder doesn't have to miss a ball hit directly to him for it to be called an error, he just has to miss a ball that he has a reasonable expectation to catch. If he has to dive or contort his body or make an extraordinary effort and the ball deflects off his glove, it's not an error.

Who said anything about extra categories? I am just saying that it shouldn't have to be one or the other. The two happenings are not mutually exclusive.

If the QB throws a pass behind his target and the WR gets his hands on it but drops it then both should get accounted for. Neither should get a pass.

Speaking of reality, error is an awful stat that correlates to nothing real in the outcomes of games.

OmerV · Nov 6, 2019

FuzzyLumpkins said:
Who said anything about extra categories? I am just saying that it shouldn't have to be one or the other. The two happenings are not mutually exclusive.

If the QB throws a pass behind his target and the WR gets his hands on it but drops it then both should get accounted for. Neither should get a pass.

Speaking of reality, error is an awful stat that correlates to nothing real in the outcomes of games.

It doesn't make sense to say the receiver dropped a pass he should have caught and also say the pass wasn't catchable because of a bad throw. For the stats to have any application at all it has to be determined if the ball was one that could be reasonably caught or not.

And keep in mind, saying a pass was dropped by the receiver is not the same as saying the pass was put in an ideal spot or that the receiver didn't have to make an adjustment while the ball was in the air. The determination is only on whether the ball was put in a spot where there was a reasonable expectation of it being caught.

Kevinicus · Nov 6, 2019

Number1 said:
it was a dime, nice route and great throw under pressure, bad drop

note, Conner and Tyrone were not on the same page

I always considered a 'dime' to be more of a pass that 'drops" in from above, and wouldn't be a line drive. Usually something along the sidelines. I don't think that would have been an option on this play as it was more to the seam and a pass that drops in would be slower, allowing the safety in.

Semantics, though, I guess.

It was a good looking throw. Shame it was dropped.

FuzzyLumpkins · Nov 6, 2019

OmerV said:
It doesn't make sense to say the receiver dropped a pass he should have caught and also say the pass wasn't catchable because of a bad throw. For the stats to have any application at all it has to be determined if the ball was one that could be reasonably caught or not.

And keep in mind, saying a pass was dropped by the receiver is not the same as saying the pass was put in an ideal spot or that the receiver didn't have to make an adjustment while the ball was in the air. The determination is only on whether the ball was put in a spot where there was a reasonable expectation of it being caught.

Sure if you insist on bad pass meaning uncatchable. For me a bad pass is simply off target.

I understand completely what a drop is.

What is unacceptable to me is giving a QB pass for throwing off target.

OmerV · Nov 6, 2019

FuzzyLumpkins said:
Sure if you insist on bad pass meaning uncatchable. For me a bad pass is simply off target.

I understand completely what a drop is.

What is unacceptable to me is giving a QB pass for throwing off target.

Again, "drops" are what we are talking about, and you are going outside that context. Nobody is saying that every pass a that is considered a "drop" dis an ideally placed pace, and everyone understands that receivers sometimes have to adjust to passes. But the percentage of throws that are ideally placed would be an entirely different line of discussion. This one only relates to passes that should have been caught that weren't.

Got stats or tape on the drops?

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