0 of 22 first round QBs drafted between 2009-2016 still with the team that drafted them

[WillieBeamen]

Not at all. First round picks in 2017: Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson. Teams own players for the first four years anyway, so through 2020. Trubisky is a bust, Mahomes is Mahomes, and Watson is demanding a trade and has unperformed.

After this free agency season my guess is only Mahomes is still with his original team. So probably 1 in 25.

Doesnt matter.


Two of the QBs in 2017 already received long term deals, so even if we waited til next year, you can eliminate 2017 from the agenda

 

[MarcusRock]

I dont care how it "feels" was just saying a more proper metric.

If we lost Dak due to contract negotiations/cap to another team, why should it appear in the metric that he was somehow trash? Same if Seattle lost Wilson.

I'm not gonna blame a team because they didnt retain a QB over money.

Don't think that's not a "more proper" metric. Goff and Wentz weren't brought back because of money. They already got their money. Like Tannehill, they weren't cutting it and teams wanted to cash out now. Bridgewater was hurt and Stafford just ran his course in Detroit AFTER getting his money. The metric basically says that teams didn't feel these guys cut it enough TO give them money (or more in the case of Goff/Wentz/Stafford) after originally drafting them high. You're the one adding the "they're trash" part. People can look at that list and make a determination for what it means themselves. You asked who are now starters and I showed you that not many of them are either. And Dak wouldn't appear in this metric because these are only QBs taken in the 1st Round.

 

[MarcusRock]

So then why start at 2009?

Why not start at 2008? You know the draft where both of the QBs taken in the first round eventually took their team to the SB and got a huge second contract?

Also, in the 2017 class, two QBs already have gotten extensions with their team.

Lamar Jackson is from the 2018 class, and there have been rumblings already that the Ravens are discussing a new deal for him. So recent history shows, that this take is trash

As for 2018, teams haven't even begun to make calls on those players because it's too recent (see my original post to you). As for the past, why stop at 2008? How about adding '07 and '06 while you're at it? The numbers for this metric improve to 1 out of 29 (Matt Ryan) if you do that. And are you saying that Joe Flacco (the other 2008 QB) was some semblance of elite?

 

[pancakeman]

Why not include 2017?


This is the definition of nitpicking

*cherry

 

[DFWJC]

We already have had this thread a couple of weeks ago.

 

[RonnieT24]

It gets even worse if you add the Haskin, Darnold, Tribusky years to it lol.

Yeah I think the premise was based on guys no longer on their rookie contracts which is why they drew the line at 5 years in the league or more. The percentages MAY be trending up over the last 4 years but it's hardly a given at this point..

2017
Trubisky (LOL!)
Mahomes (bullseye)
Watson (top 10 player)

2018
Mayfield (showing signs)
Darnold (in mortal danger of being replaced)
Allen (huge step forward in 2020 .. can he sustain it?)
Rosen ( hanging by a thread)
Jackson (step backward in 2020. can he rebound? Covid maybe?)

2019
Murray (decent but nothing special yet)
Jones (see Trubisky)
Haskins (see Jones)

2020 -
Burrow (solid start to his career)
Herbert (good start to his career)
Tua ( shaky start but it's early)
Love (aint seen the field)

So even if we include guys still on rookie deals (the 2017 guys signed extensions that have yet to kick in) you still have no better than a 50/50 chance to land a legit player. 5 of these 15 guys, Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Allen and Jackson have taken their teams to the playoffs. 9 of them have yet to produce an above .500 season.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Yeah I think the premise was based on guys no longer on their rookie contracts which is why they drew the line at 5 years in the league or more. The percentages MAY be trending up over the last 4 years but it's hardly a given at this point..

2017
Trubisky (LOL!)
Mahomes (bullseye)
Watson (top 10 player)

2018
Mayfield (showing signs)
Darnold (in mortal danger of being replaced)
Allen (huge step forward in 2020 .. can he sustain it?)
Rosen ( hanging by a thread)
Jackson (step backward in 2020. can he rebound? Covid maybe?)

2019
Murray (decent but nothing special yet)
Jones (see Trubisky)
Haskins (see Jones)

2020 -
Burrow (solid start to his career)
Herbert (good start to his career)
Tua ( shaky start but it's early)
Love (aint seen the field)

So even if we include guys still on rookie deals (the 2017 guys signed extensions that have yet to kick in) you still have no better than a 50/50 chance to land a legit player. 5 of these 15 guys, Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Allen and Jackson have taken their teams to the playoffs. 9 of them have yet to produce an above .500 season.

Its a sad list....good luck to those who want to be in that market again though lol.

 

[RonnieT24]

Its a sad list....good luck to those who want to be in that market again though lol.

And yet there is a persistent contingent among Cowboys "fans" who insist that Dak can be "easily replaced with a draft pick" despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. I get that Dak is not consistently spectacular.. but frankly no QB is.. And Dak is certainly spectacular more often than he sucks. He has more games in his career above 100 passer rating (32) than he does under 80 (16) .. Which means he is twice as likely to play well as he is to just stink up the joint. I am sure there are a few QBs with better stellar to stink ratio.. but I'd wager there aren't many.. And that's not even taking into account the 10 other games he has had a passer rating in the 90's.. which again is still pretty good QB play. Especially in our offense which is more of a downfield attack than some of these WCO teams. The WCO allows the QB to garner an artificially high passer rating by featuring a ton of high percentage short to medium range throws and rarely taking shots down the field. The fact that Dak has been top two or three in yards per attempt while still maintaining a high completion percentage speaks volumes IMHO.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Listening to Donny and Sorois on the Ticket and they are doing a segment called "First round QBs suck." and then went through all 22 QBs that were drafted in the first round during that time frame and it shocked even me that not a single one is still with the team that drafted him. And almost half of them are out of the league.. Most of the ones still around are backups and not one is playing at a high level consistently these days. Wow.. just wow.. All the more reason that the Cowboys need to hang onto the guy they got and not waste draft capital trying to replace what they already have. No don't destroy your cap with the deal.. but the evidence is overwhelming that drafting a QB in the first round does little or nothing to guarantee the guy's gonna turn out to be any good.

Quite an indictment of NFL QB talent scouting and development. It's not like QBs don't exist in the NFL. It seems that the NFL is looking in the wrong places for them. Can't scout college for successful pros.

Has someone tallied the draft status for all draft rounds, all the starting QBs?

Would be nice to see how other rounds fared, and just where starting QBs have come from.

But I'd take a *different* lesson than the one on offer of "hold on to a QB for dear life".

Fix your evaluation process.
It's a crap shoot, top college QBs are overvalued, later round college QBs are undervalued. Spread draft value broader but cheaper.

Our last 2 franchise QBs were an UDFA and 4th Round Pick.

In the last 20 years, Jerry has spent a 2nd, 2 4ths, a 5th to draft QBs.
That has netted Tony, Dak, and Matt Moore. That's quite a haul for very little investment.

Compare that to "let's give Dak a bazillion a year because it's impossible to draft a QB". Turns out it's really *not* that impossible to find a QB.

 

[RonnieT24]

Quite an indictment of NFL QB talent scouting and development. It's not like QBs don't exist in the NFL. It seems that the NFL is looking in the wrong places for them. Can't scout college for successful pros.

Has someone tallied the draft status for all draft rounds, all the starting QBs?

Would be nice to see how other rounds fared, and just where starting QBs have come from.

But I'd take a *different* lesson than the one on offer of "hold on to a QB for dear life".

Fix your evaluation process.
It's a crap shoot, top college QBs are overvalued, later round college QBs are undervalued. Spread draft value broader but cheaper.

Our last 2 franchise QBs were an UDFA and 4th Round Pick.

The evaluation process is clearly broken for QBs. I suspect that other positions fare better than the QB position. The main thing that gets these NFL teams into trouble is they are almost always looking for physical traits above the plain ole "can the dude play?" That's why they keep blowing it on these 6'4"+ cannon armed Tarzan lookalikes who can throw the ball throw a brick wall and can hit the wide open future first round pick receivers who are running butt nekkid wide open 90% of the time in college but run into a problem when there is a DB hanging all over the receiver in the pros and the defenders are just as good an athlete as the receivers... or better. Frankly I think the best way to evaluate QBs and their ability to handle NFL defenses would be to hire some fringe NFL pass rushers and cover guys and bring them to the combine and make the QBs operate against that instead of against air. Give the rushers a 3 mississippi count and let them rush the kid. It'll also give a better evaluation of the receivers while you're at it. Quit letting them stand there and pose while throwing to uncovered guys. They're never going to do that in a game so why use that as some kind of barometer. It's like evaluating a Ferrari based on towing capacity.

 

[mardwin]

While true...even if you add quarterbacks from later years.....still bad. Tribusky and Darnold are about to be added to that list. Deshaun is begging to join them.

Darnold looks that he can be salvaged, he fell into a bad organization. Tribusky he will probably leave Chicago.