2018 Passer Rating on 10+Yard Targets

[Vtwin]

Yeah, Dak doesn't have accuracy, supposedly, even though his completions percentage average his first 3 years is better than Troy's and Romo's. Yes, that Dak is so terrible with his passing accuracy that he has led the entire league in "tight window throws" 2 out of his first 3 years. Yeah, that Troy Aikman is right about Dak not having good accuracy and how accuracy can't be taught because you either have it or you don't.

To use a hunting/shooting analogy Dak is deer hunter accurate. He is ok at putting rounds in an eight inch circle at a hundred yards which is fine for deer hunting.

Shooting for groups though, not so good.

The result of this is a lot of missed out RAC and big plays from short passes

 

[Plumfool]

To use a hunting/shooting analogy Dak is deer hunter accurate. He is ok at putting rounds in an eight inch circle at a hundred yards which is fine for deer hunting.

Shooting for groups though, not so good.

The result of this is a lot of missed out RAC and big plays from short passes

Can we we say that the offense actually allowed for RAC? I don’t recall any QB/receiver combo since this regime has had offensive control that allowed its receivers to consistently get RAC

 

[percyhoward]

I really wish we had this data for 10+ and 20+.

20+ yard targets
1 Wilson 129.8
2 Rodgers 124.0
3 Prescott 117.4
4 Brees 114.6
5 Ryan 113.9
6 Roethlisberger 112.9
7 Mahomes 107.9
8 Mayfield 107.9
9 Cousins 106.8
10 Brady 106.4

15+yard targets
1 Wilson 133.3
2 Rodgers 115.5
3 Ryan 112.6
4 Brees 111.5
5 Roethlisberger 106.3
6 Mayfield 104.4
7 Cousins 103.6
8 Rivers 102.4
9 Prescott 100.4
10 Brady 99.2

 

[Corso]

To use a hunting/shooting analogy Dak is deer hunter accurate. He is ok at putting rounds in an eight inch circle at a hundred yards which is fine for deer hunting.

Shooting for groups though, not so good.

The result of this is a lot of missed out RAC and big plays from short passes

I like the analogy.

 

[Corso]

20+ yard targets
1 Wilson 129.8
2 Rodgers 124.0
3 Prescott 117.4
4 Brees 114.6
5 Ryan 113.9
6 Roethlisberger 112.9
7 Mahomes 107.9
8 Mayfield 107.9
9 Cousins 106.8
10 Brady 106.4

15+yard targets
1 Wilson 133.3
2 Rodgers 115.5
3 Ryan 112.6
4 Brees 111.5
5 Roethlisberger 106.3
6 Mayfield 104.4
7 Cousins 103.6
8 Rivers 102.4
9 Prescott 100.4
10 Brady 99.2

You are a treasure.

 

[BigD_95]

No checkdowns or screens here. These are all passes thrown at least 10 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage. Includes playoffs.

min 80 att
1 Wilson 130.9
2 Cousins 123.9
3 Brees 121.7
4 Ryan 119.6
5 Mahomes 119.3
6 Rodgers 118.4
7 Rivers 114.3
8 Watson 113.4
9 Brady 111.0
10 Wentz 110.2
11 Luck 109.0
12 Carr 101.5
13 Goff 100.9
14 Prescott 100.7
15 Stafford 98.3
16 Dalton 95.1
17 Roethlisberger 93.5
18 Manning 93.5
19 Mariota 91.2
20 Tannehill 90.8
21 Mayfield 89.2
22 Newton 83.9
23 Winston 82.9
24 Trubisky 82.2
25 Keenum 81.7
26 Darnold 76.6
27 Bortles 76.2
28 Jackson 71.7
29 Smith 71.6
30 Rosen 68.7
31 Allen 59.5

Prescott's 175 attempts at this distance also put him in the middle of the pack.

Dak was at 91.6 before Cooper's arrival, 105.6 after.

That’s about where I have Dak. A middle of the road QB. And why this talk of him making 26 million a year or more in just insane talk

 

[Corso]

That’s about where I have Dak. A middle of the road QB. And why this talk of him making 26 million a year or more in just insane talk

May be, but he's going to get it. So all we can do is hope he continues to develop further.
There are, at least, some good stuff to his game. I know... not a ringing endorsement, but here we are.

 

[Vtwin]

Can we we say that the offense actually allowed for RAC? I don’t recall any QB/receiver combo since this regime has had offensive control that allowed its receivers to consistently get RAC

They might not focus entirely on slants and crosses etc but they did use them. I can recall a lot of high or behind balls forcing the receiver to adjust instead of catching it in stride. Cooper had to stop and jump on one in the Rams game when he had plenty of room to run with a better thrown ball. Forced a punt instead of getting it into scoring position.

 

[percyhoward]

That’s about where I have Dak. A middle of the road QB. And why this talk of him making 26 million a year or more in just insane talk

If every QB above him on this list were about to sign a new contract this year, most would be in excess of that figure.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

20+ yard targets
1 Wilson 129.8
2 Rodgers 124.0
3 Prescott 117.4
4 Brees 114.6
5 Ryan 113.9
6 Roethlisberger 112.9
7 Mahomes 107.9
8 Mayfield 107.9
9 Cousins 106.8
10 Brady 106.4

15+yard targets
1 Wilson 133.3
2 Rodgers 115.5
3 Ryan 112.6
4 Brees 111.5
5 Roethlisberger 106.3
6 Mayfield 104.4
7 Cousins 103.6
8 Rivers 102.4
9 Prescott 100.4
10 Brady 99.2

Attempts?

 

[glimmerman]

If every QB above him on this list were about to sign a new contract this year, most would be in excess of that figure.

Well above that. It’s just the market. As far as I am concerned none of the qbs are worth that much. But it is what it is. No way he takes 26 million. I think the FO will start around there. And that’s a low ball offer.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Right you are, and not at all like Prescott, because these guys' success comes completely from the short passing game.


If you simply count attempts and ignore the results of those attempts, here's where that logic takes you.

Brees 68.8%
Prescott 68.6%
Brady 66.0%
Rodgers 65.1%

Smith: 63.3%
Newton: 63%
Trubisky: 62.9%
Winston: 51.5%

You compared Dak to Smith, Newton, Mitch and Winston when you wanted to compare short vs "long" passing efficiency. You then bring in Brees, Rodgers and Brady to compare pass split.

You're conflating two different and seperate statistics and groups of QBs it seems to suit a purpose? Or perhaps oversight.

 

[Plumfool]

They might not focus entirely on slants and crosses etc but they did use them. I can recall a lot of high or behind balls forcing the receiver to adjust instead of catching it in stride. Cooper had to stop and jump on one in the Rams game when he had plenty of room to run with a better thrown ball. Forced a punt instead of getting it into scoring position.

Can also recall him hitting AC on a catch and run of 90 yards against Washington.

QBs hit some and miss some.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

If every QB above him on this list were about to sign a new contract this year, most would be in excess of that figure.

Why should Dak get considerably more money than Nick Foles just received in this market environment?

 

[percyhoward]

Attempts?

These are regular season numbers. If the league average ratings seem high, that's because this only includes aimed attempts. They don't include any INT that happened after a deflection at the line or the QB being hit as he threw, for example, because there's no way to know how deep that target would have been.

20+yd targets
Prescott: 12% of total attempts, 115.7 passer rating
NFL avg: 13% of total attempts, 97.3 passer rating

10-19 yds
Prescott: 20% of total attempts, 83.5 passer rating
NFL avg: 23% of total attempts, 96.7 passer rating

0-9 yds
Prescott: 54% of total attempts, 99.8 passer rating
NFL avg: 49% of total attempts, 100.2 passer rating

BLOS
Prescott: 14% of total attempts, 104.1 passer rating
NFL avg: 15% of total attempts, 96.5 passer rating

 

[percyhoward]

You compared Dak to Smith, Newton, Mitch and Winston when you wanted to compare short vs "long" passing efficiency. You then bring in Brees, Rodgers and Brady to compare pass split.

You're conflating two different and seperate statistics and groups of QBs it seems to suit a purpose? Or perhaps oversight.

If you go back, the attempt splits based on target distance were your idea. You probably thought it was a good idea until you saw the names. For that matter, calling these 10+yard targets "long" is also your idea.

I did compare Smith, Newton, Trubisky, and Winston (who depend completely on targets of 9 yards or less for their passing success) to Dak (who doesn't), so you did understand some of what happened there apparently.

 

[aikemirv]

And the ones he misses that were easy are the reason he should not be paid above that either.

 

[Redball Express]

Again, the shorter throws actually hurt his numbers slightly. That's the point of this thread, in fact.

Here are some players whose passer rating benefits greatly from short throws, and how they compare to Dak:

Prescott
Target < 10 yards
309 of 382 80.9% 2511 yd 6.6 ypa 9 td 2 int 99.7
Target 10+ yards
89 of 175 50.9% 1866 yd 10.7 ypa 15 td 7 int 100.7

Trubisky
Target < 10 yards
237 of 288 82.3% 1757 yd 6.1 ypa 12 td 1 int 104.5
Target 10+ yards
78 of 170 45.9% 1769 yd 10.4 ypa 13 td 11 int 82.2

Newton
Target < 10 yards
233 of 278 83.8% 1753 yd 6.3 ypa 15 td 4int 104.9
Target 10+ yards
87 of 163 53.4% 1642 yd 10.1 ypa 9 td 9 int 83.9

Winston
Target < 10 yards
154 of 188 81.9% 1200 yd 6.4 ypa 6 td 2 int 99.5
Target 10+ yards
90 of 177 50.8% 1792 yd 10.2 ypa 13 td 12 int 82.9

Smith
Target < 10 yards
164 of 199 82.4% 1336 yd 6.7 ypa 6 td 1 int 102.5
Target 10+ yards
41 of 95 43.2% 844 yd 8.9 ypa 4 td 4 int 71.6

I think I need to clarify what I meant by that statement.

My posts get too long as it is..but..

what I mean by it is every QB has a 'sweet spot' where they are most effective.

Medium and deep passes are not DAKs passing sweet spot.

He is most effective getting the ball out within 10-15 yards down field.

Quick strikes to Witten and Beasley especially in his rookie year.

Romo before him was holding on to the ball longer and longer the older he got resulting in sacks, fumbles and ints.

When DAK arrived..it was like we had a new offense.

He was Rookie of the Year.

Then starting in 2017 the coaches decided to have him change his play to reading defenses and holding the ball more to go thru progressions

We saw a very different player at QB who struggled a lot.

In 2018 they allowed him more quick passing and more getting out from the pocket and spreading the defense to defend him.

Cooper scored most of his TDs on quick slants across the middle where DAK got rid of the ball on a 12 yd pass.

No long arching touch bombs down field like Meredith to Bob Hayes.

DAK does not throw like that.

Soo..

now my thought is complete on DAKs short ball passing.

I hope Moore sees this and designs this back into the offense.

I did not like Linehan's playcalling after 2016.

He relied on Zeke too much and stiffled DAKs best plays.

Done.

Sorry about the length of my post but after the work you put into your reply..

I thought you deserved a good and thoughtful reply.

Thanx.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Why should Dak get considerably more money than Nick Foles just received in this market environment?

Other than Foles' 2017 4 game playoff run, when else has he played stellar at QB? If Foles was so good, why did the Iggles let him go recently and instead keep injury-prone/locker room disruptor Carson Wince?

 

[WillieBeamen]

Other than Foles' 2017 4 game playoff run, when else has he played stellar at QB? If Foles was so good, why did the Iggles let him go recently and instead keep injury-prone/locker room disruptor Carson Wince?

2013 season

27tds
2 ints