2019 College Football Thread

[jterrell]

Conference breakdown with updated poll (11/10/19)
added context

Big Ten— 7 teams of 14
SEC— 5 of 14
American— 4 of 12
Big 12– 4 of 10
Pac 12 — 2 of 12
ACC— 1 of 12
Mountain West— 1 of 12
Indy— 1

 

[atlantacowboy]

If both LSU and Bama run the table from here on out--.so Bama beats Auburn and LSU beats UGa in the SEC title game---Bama could still very well be the 4th team.

But as you said, a 12-1 Oregon team could leap them.
Can't see a 1 loss Big 12 leaping a 1 loss Alabama or 1 loss LSU .....but if Baylor ran the table and also won Big 12 title game, they could.

Should be interesting.

Oregon lost to Auburn on a neutral field and have beaten nobody. No way they leap a 1 loss Bama with a win over Auburn.

 

[atlantacowboy]

The irony is that Alabama is on their hands and knees rooting for Auburn to beat Georgia this coming Saturday. If Auburn loses that game then Alabama is facing the very real possibility of having 1 single win against a ranked team*, and that team would probably be outside the top-20.

I don't see Alabama getting in over a 1-loss conference champion given their sad sack schedule.

* "Ranked teams" meaning looking at the team's end of season ranking, not the ranking they held when they played

The committee doesn't care about conference champions. They put Bama in a few years ago as runner up in the SEC west over several conference champions. They'll put who they believe are the 4 best teams in college football in the playoff.

 

[DFWJC]

Oregon lost to Auburn on a neutral field and have beaten nobody. No way they leap a 1 loss Bama with a win over Auburn.

I tend to agree, but they might give a boost for conf title (they have adjusted since 2-3 years ago) and the fact that the game was played so early in the year.

I have no skin in this game, just pointing out scenarios. A couple of folks in this thread get all emotional about things.

 

[DFWJC]

Baylor is extremely well-coached.
So much so that NFL teams are after Rhule.
I think they'd lose to the top 5 but not by large margins.
They just compete hard and play smart football.

They seem to be one of the best coached teams in the country this year.

 

[atlantacowboy]

I tend to agree, but they might give a boost for conf title and the fact that the game was played so early in the year.

I have no skin in this game, just pointing out scenarios. A couple of folks in this thread get all emotional about things.

But Oregon doesn't have any big wins either and Bama's win over Auburn would outrank anything they've done.

The committee has shown over the years that they do not weight conference titles. They don't care. .....that is particularly true of the weak pac 10.

 

[viman96]

Assuming Oregon can run the table and win the Pac 12 title then I think the committee would give that more weight than Alabama beating Auburn.

CFP rankings are updated today at 4 PM PDT which will let us know how they feel about Alabama's loss.

 

[DFWJC]

The College Football Playoff show is starting now on ESPN.

Didn't realize they had an actual hour long show for this when there are a few weeks left in the season. Talk about milking it
Worked on me...

 

[DFWJC]

Whoa. Official ranking just out.
Not a good start for the Big 12...especially OU.
OU at 10 with “possibly” only hope being that teams 4-9 all lose at least once.

Baylor only at 13 .
Maybe if Baylor beats OU this weekend and then win the Big 12 title.

Pac 12 now seems to have the better shot if both #7 Utah and #6 Oregon win out and playin the title game.

Everyone is excited about Minnesota, but Id be really shocked if they don't lose 1-2 games with their schedule ahead. Great win vs Penn St though.

Three locks obviously, if they win out, are Ohio St, LSU, Clemson.

A scenario that would really blow it and is not far-fetched would be if Georgia loses at Auburn but then upsets LSU in the SEC title game

 

[DFWJC]

1. LSU
2. Ohio St
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Alabama
6. Oregon
7. Utah
8. Minnesota
9. Penn St
10. Oklahoma
11. Florida
12. Auburn
13. Baylor
14. Wisconsin
15. Michigan
16. Notre Dame
17. Cincinnati
18. Memphis
19. Texas
20. Iowa
21. Boise St
22. Oklahoma St
23. Navy
24. Kansas St
25. Appalachian St

 

[Ghost12]

What would happen? Bama getting jumped? Their schedule is going to hurt them this year.

Based on history, yes Alabama would get jumped by Oregon or Utah if they both win out through the regular season to play each other in the Pac 12 CCG.

 

[Ghost12]

The committee doesn't care about conference champions. They put Bama in a few years ago as runner up in the SEC west over several conference champions. They'll put who they believe are the 4 best teams in college football in the playoff.

uh yeah, the committee cares a great deal about conference championship. The #1 most important criteria is fewest losses. That's how OSU made it one year and Alabama made it the next and Notre Dame the year after that. But once you get down to sorting amongst teams with equal numbers of losses, the conference champs have beaten the non-conference champs into the top 4 every single time.

Historically speaking, if you don't win your conference, you better have fewer losses than everyone else or you're out (keeping in mind "everyone else" doesn't include the 3 other teams selected into the playoffs). It could still happen where the Pac-12 champ has 2 losses and the Big 12 champ has 2 losses. But if we go by history, Alabama is on the outside looking in.

 

[Ghost12]

But Oregon doesn't have any big wins either and Bama's win over Auburn would outrank anything they've done.

If Oregon wins out, they will have a big win by having beaten Utah. Utah is currently 5 spots ahead of Auburn and that number will only increase if Auburn loses to UGA.

The committee has shown over the years that they do not weight conference titles. They don't care. .....that is particularly true of the weak pac 10.

This is simply not true. History has established that record (fewest losses) is the most important criteria but after that comes conference champs.

 

[Ghost12]

A scenario that would really blow it and is not far-fetched would be if Georgia loses at Auburn but then upsets LSU in the SEC title game

I think UGA is out if that happens and LSU would be in. IMHO the only way for the SEC to have 2 members is UGA wins out and LSU wins out except against UGA. (or if everyone else has 2 losses but I just don't see it happening to Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah)

 

[viman96]

Both Georgia and Alabama have Auburn on their schedule. If Auburn were to lose to both of them then that could hurt Oregon's chances of getting in even if they win the Pac12. LSU should run the table and play in the SEC title game. Likely against Georgia.

 

[DFWJC]

I think UGA is out if that happens and LSU would be in. IMHO the only way for the SEC to have 2 members is UGA wins out and LSU wins out except against UGA. (or if everyone else has 2 losses but I just don't see it happening to Oklahoma and Oregon/Utah)

Yeah. LSU's resume is just so far ahead of everyone elses (4 good or great wins already), that if they go to SEC champ game undefeated, win or lose, they are in.
Someone pointed out they would worry about the mindset of the players for that game if they knew they in regardless. Could help UGa.
Who knows

 

[Ghost12]

Both Georgia and Alabama have Auburn on their schedule. If Auburn were to lose to both of them then that could hurt Oregon's chances of getting in even if they win the Pac12. LSU should run the table and play in the SEC title game. Likely against Georgia.

Auburn losing both games helps Oregon/Utah because Auburn will be Alabama's best win. We are looking at a situation where Alabama's piss poor schedule will give them 2 games against teams still ranked after CCG weekend: one they lost, and one they won over a team probably not even in the top 20. (Or course, this assumes Alabama wins out.... I don't see anyone suggesting they would still be in the playoffs with a 2nd loss)

 

[atlantacowboy]

If Oregon wins out, they will have a big win by having beaten Utah. Utah is currently 5 spots ahead of Auburn and that number will only increase if Auburn loses to UGA.
This is simply not true. History has established that record (fewest losses) is the most important criteria but after that comes conference champs.

It actually is true. Alabama won the 2017-18 national title and were not the SEC champs. The team record is obviously the main criteria. The main tie breaker is strength of schedule not conference championship.

If it comes down to Oregon and Alabama for the 4th spot, the ducks conference title will mean nothing. Alabama will edge them out on strength of schedule and don't discount that Auburn game. It says something when a 3 loss SEC team beats the pac 10 champ. The committee could easily use Auburn as a measuring stick since both teams played them.

 

[DFWJC]

my bad.
old rankings

 

[atlantacowboy]

Oregon has a stronger strength of schedule than Alabama (9th to 26th) and still would have to beat 7th ranked Utah.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

check again