2nd & 19 vs 3rd & 7

[Crown Royal]

Passing on 3rd down on our last drive where we got the FG to go up 6 and the Seahags had ZERO TO’s was way dumber than not taking that penalty.

That was the biggest and weirdest bonehead decision. Under no circumstances should you stop the clock there. Honestly I would have rather run it on 3rd and 3 and if I got even 2 yards, I'm going for it on 4th and 1 and letting the clock go waaaay down.

 

[Praxit]

Yeah McCarthy had three boners last night.. Eschewing the FG there early in the 4th and then throwing when there was 1:40 left in the game and the Seahawks out of timeouts. Could have eaten another 40-45 seconds off the clock then kicked the FG after running it. Totally stupid not to run it there.

...I was yelling, all we need is 3 yds to end the game. I thought of Dak quick bootleg,.RB draw or quick out pass. But Dak goes for the home run?
Defense was really suspect, I had no confidence in them stopping the sea chickens from scoring again.
They got the ball with a minute 40 seconds. They finally stepped up.

 

[rambo2]

Did McCarthy address this decision in his presser? I could be wrong but I just don’t get it. Even if you have the 85 Bears defense, it still doesn’t make sense to me. Did the mathematicians up in the booth make this decision for McCarthey?

The scoreboard had 3rd and 10 up there until right before the play. It probably confused them.

 

[JD_KaPow]

This is a little old, but:
https://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2014/03/first-down-probability.html

Looks like 2nd-and-19 is converted roughly 35% of the time, and 3rd-and-7 is converted a bit over 40% of the time. So yeah, on average the numbers favor taking the penalty, but it's not like it's a huge difference or anything. Personally, if the odds are equal, I'd rather not give them two chances to draw a penalty first down.

It's hard for me to get too worked up over this one.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It was a decided vote of "no confidence" in the defense, which was embarrassing last night.

"You can't convert 3rd-and-7 on us" is a strange statement for someone who doesn't trust his defense.

 

[bandfan]

It's a matter of philosophy. There is no right or wrong. That part can't be determined until after the fact.

 

[ActualCowboysFan]

Yeah McCarthy had three boners last night.. Eschewing the FG there early in the 4th and then throwing when there was 1:40 left in the game and the Seahawks out of timeouts. Could have eaten another 40-45 seconds off the clock then kicked the FG after running it. Totally stupid not to run it there.

Or even throw a screen. Goal line fade is about the worst option

 

[adamknite]

I wonder if he knew it was 3rd and 7. I honestly thought it was going to be 3rd and 9. Anyway, the decisions seemed fine at the time. This was before the Seattle offense went off. McCarthy was betting that one of the best defenses in the league at getting off the field at 3rd and long would handle it against a team that had not been offensively dangerous for several weeks. We can look back after the fact and say that was dangerous but it was a fine decision at the time.

That's what I thought at first and figured it happened to him as well. I was like "why is it 3rd and 7? Ohhhh right.... they still get the play and yards" so maybe he had a brain fart like I did.

 

[DCBoysfan]

there is no discerning difference between 2nd and 19 If they get 10 on the next play and then it's third and nine or less etc.. he figured he'd give the defense a shot to stop him on one instead of two plays.. it's not our fault or his that the defense was that bad. easily giving up 3rd and 8s is not something to brag about, BUT many coaches would be confident doing just that,,. 3rd and 7 0r 8 at home with this rep this d HAD should be an easy decision.. but hey some of you think you can make better decisions and you think that they would pick it up anyway, or wouldn't? how do you know.. they were moving the ball at will??

I can make a better decision.

Accept the penalty, and push them back 10 yards. See that wasn’t so hard.

 

[CT Dal Fan]

That one didn't bother me too much. 3rd and 7 against the Dallas pass rush is usually disaster. MM just showed confidence in the defense like the announcers said.

The one that did bother me was the endzone shot with less than 2 minutes to play. I understand a TD there is the dagger but it also saved Seattle 40 seconds. Luckily the defense held.

 

[ThatJerryKid]

12-5, 12-5, 9-3.

 

[bigdnlaca]

It seems dumb now but it was early in the game and he thought his defense could actually make a stop.

As the game progressed, McC realized he can’t rely on the defense in this game.

 

[links18]

I don't think he knew it would be 3rd and 7. Seems like he thought the distance would have been longer. He was quite exasperated as they lined up to snap.

 

[aikemirv]

That was the biggest and weirdest bonehead decision. Under no circumstances should you stop the clock there. Honestly I would have rather run it on 3rd and 3 and if I got even 2 yards, I'm going for it on 4th and 1 and letting the clock go waaaay down.

I wonder what analytics would say to a 3 pt lead and your opponents have the ball at the 1 yard line with 1 minute left, with a chance of converting and not letting them touch the ball versus a 6pt lead and the opponents getting the ball at the 25 with a minute left because I am kinda right there with you.

 

[lkelly]

This is a little old, but:
https://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2014/03/first-down-probability.html

Looks like 2nd-and-19 is converted roughly 35% of the time, and 3rd-and-7 is converted a bit over 40% of the time. So yeah, on average the numbers favor taking the penalty, but it's not like it's a huge difference or anything. Personally, if the odds are equal, I'd rather not give them two chances to draw a penalty first down.

It's hard for me to get too worked up over this one.

Probably not factored into the math is the probability of a defensive penalty that results in a first down. We seemed to have one of those on roughly every third play, so going 2 plays without one might have been too much to count on. It was Russian Roulette with plenty of bullets in the chamber.

 

[Cowboy_svt]

Yeah McCarthy had three boners last night.. Eschewing the FG there early in the 4th and then throwing when there was 1:40 left in the game and the Seahawks out of timeouts. Could have eaten another 40-45 seconds off the clock then kicked the FG after running it. Totally stupid not to run it there.

Thats some HD television you had right there to see that

 

[JD_KaPow]

I wonder what analytics would say to a 3 pt lead and your opponents have the ball at the 1 yard line with 1 minute left versus a 6pt lead and the opponents getting the ball at the 25 with a minute left because I am kinda right there with you.

Analytics tells you that kicking the FG to go from a 3-point lead to a 6-point lead is the worst thing you can possibly do.
There's a few reasons why.

• Kicking the FG means you're passing on the chance to pick up the 1st down and win the game.
• A team that's down 3 will play conservatively if and when they reach FG range: they play for OT, which still gives you a 50% chance of winning.
• A team that's down 6 doesn't have that luxury, so they will go all out to score a TD which will win it for them in regulation. The odds of scoring that TD are higher than the odds of (FG) * (winning in OT).

 

[JD_KaPow]

Probably not factored into the math is the probability of a defensive penalty that results in a first down. We seemed to have one of those on roughly every third play, so going 2 plays without one might have been too much to count on. It was Russian Roulette with plenty of bullets in the chamber.

I'm sure it is factored into the data. But yes, if you believe your chances of committing one are higher than average, that will change your calculus, probably in favor of declining the penalty.

 

[nalam]

How this was 2nd and 19 or 3&7 , if its hold its 10 yards from previous spot correct ? So they had 2nd 7 and the holding happened , it should be 2& 17 ? Correct ?

 

[JohnsKey19]

How this was 2nd and 19 or 3&7 , if its hold its 10 yards from previous spot correct ? So they had 2nd 7 and the holding happened , it should be 2& 17 ? Correct ?

Declined holding penalty means the play stands. Seattle gained 2 yards